Assumptions and risks

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Assumptions and risks
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• Necessary conditions for the achievement of
  results at different levels.
• Internal and external conditions to the program.

Assumptions
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• Determines the probability that the identified
  conditions will not be present.
• Risk level
• High
• Medium
• Low.

Risk Analysis
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Assumptions Risk Analysis
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
High risk
Moderate risk
Low risk
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Impact
Decreasing Management Control
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Where do they go?Table 1UNDAF M E Framework
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Mitigation of critical assumptions (number or
scope)

• Strengthening management capacities (UN,
  Government).
• International experience and knowledge
• Partnership (action of others)
• Research and negotiation before finalizing the
  programme design
• Modifying activities or budgets
• Adding a clear advocacy agenda

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• Periodic review exercises
• Revisit the UNDAF Results matrix when needed

External Risks monitor to check whether the
programme as a whole still makes sense!
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Refining results
To strengthen the capacity of civil servants to
do X by undertaking Y,
Lets use results language to emphasis the future
condition we want to achieve?
The capacity of civil servants is strengthened to
do X by undertaking Y,
All civil servants, everywhere? Can you be more
specific? Are there particularly weak or
under-resourced civil servants we should
emphasise?
The capacity of civil servants in the 4 poorest
districts is strengthened to do X by undertaking
Y,
We can take out information that relates to
either strategy or activities.
The capacity of civil servants in 4 district
administrations is strengthened to do X by
undertaking Y,
Now, lets try bringing the subject of change to
the front, and shifting from passive to active
language.
Civil servants in 4 district administrations are
able to do X