Dia 1

1
Climate Change and Conflict in Bangladesh
Matthijs van der Hoorn June 18, 2009
2
Introduction
Violent Conflict
Climate Change
3
Introduction

• The Coming Anarchy (Kaplan, 1994).
• Climate change will help produce insurgencies,
  genocide, guerrilla attacks, gang warfare, and
  global terrorism (Homer-Dixon, 2007).
• 300.000 people die of climate change every year
  (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009).

4
Introduction

• Bangladesh A nation at the frontline of the
  climate change crisis (Global Humanitarian Forum,
  2009).
• 22 million Bangladeshis would become refugees due
  to climate change impacts by 2050 (IPCC, 2007).
• 30 million people in 19 of 64 districts along the
  southern coastline have already been exposed to
  climate change (EquityBD, 2009).

5
Paradox

• First Paradox
• Global warming only subject of debate for de last
  fifteen years.
• Large decrease of number of conflicts.
• Second Paradox
• Not empirical foundation.
• Indicative stories.

6
Paradox
Buhaug et al, 2008 Implications of Climate
Change for Armed Conflict
7
Central Question
Can climate change cause violent conflict in
Bangladesh?
8
Research Model
Vulnerability Adaption
Climate change
Social Effects
Consequences
Violent conflict
Political Instability
Scarcity of Resources (Food, water, and soil
insecurity)
Temperature Change
Economic Instability
Intrastate
Precipitation Change
Increase of Natural Disasters
Social Fragmentation
Interstate
Sea Level Rise
Migration
Mega Events (extremes)
9
Research Model
Vulnerability Adaption
Climate change
Consequences
Temperature Change
Scarcity of Resources (Food, water, and soil
insecurity)
Precipitation Change
Increase of Natural Disasters
Sea Level Rise
Mega Events (extremes)
10
Climate Change

• Change of Climate over time

Situation A
Situation B
Time
11
Climate Change

• Climate change
• Temperature Change
• Precipitation Change
• Sea Level Rise
• Mega Events

Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
12
Vulnerability and Adaption

• Vulnerability
• Geographical location.
• Population pressure.
• Economic dependents on coastal zone.
• Adaption
• Measures to adapt to new environmental
  circumstances (new agricultural methods, cyclone
  preparedness).

13
Vulnerability and Adaption
UNDP, 2004 A Global Report Reducing Disaster
Risk A Challenge for Development
14
Scarcity of Resources

• Scarcity of Resources
• A low (per capita) availability of a renewable
  resource, such as soil, food and freshwater.
• Decreasing supply or increasing demand
  (population pressure, increasing consumption ).

15
Relation to Climate Change

• Temperature Rise
• Increasing drought

• Crop failure
• Increasing fresh water demand

• Precipitation change
• Increase in annual
• rainfall
• - Occurrence of short
• duration heavy rainfall
• Rainfall at unexpected
• time

• - Crop failure
• Erosion of indigenous
• knowledge
• - Floods

16
Relation to Climate Change
Sea Level Rise - Salinity intrusion - River
bank erosion - Coastal erosion
- Decreasing fresh water supply - Degradation of
Agricultural land

• Mega Events
• Extreme temperatures

• Crop failure

17
Temperature Rise
Debsarma and Hassan, 2007, Bangladesh
Meteorological Department
18
Drought
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO), 2006
19
Rainfall
1967 - 2007
International Union for Conservation of Nature
(IUCN), 2008
20
Rainfall
International Union for Conservation of Nature
(IUCN), 2008
21
Rainfall
International Union for Conservation of Nature
(IUCN), 2008
22
Floods
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
23
Floods
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
24
Salinity intrusion
Salinized soil in Jessore, Magura, Narail,
Faridpur, Gopalgoni, and Jhalokati from 1973 -
1997
Soil Resources Development Institute (SRDI), 1998
25
Erosion and Accretion
Erosion and accretion along the Bangladeshi
coastline from 1973 to 2005
Maminul Haque Sarker and CEGIS
26
Agricultural Land
Worldbank, 2009 World Development Indicators,
DPP Quick Query
27
Crop and Food Production
Worldbank, 2009 World Development Indicators,
DPP Quick Query
28
Fresh water
Worldbank, 2009 World Development Indicators,
DPP Quick Query
29
Climate Change and Scarcity of Resources

• Decrease of pre-mosoon temperature, increase of
  winter, mosoon, and post-mosoon temperature (not
  more than global average).
• No significant increase of drought.
• Rainfall is highly variable from year to years.
  No significant variation in average rainfall (50
  year scale).
• Floods, variable from year to year. Small
  increase of number of floods, decrease of
  affected people.

30
Climate Change and Scarcity of Resources

• Salinity intrusion, ongoing process related to
  sea level rise.
• Erosion and accretion likely that there is a
  relation between riverbank erosion and climate
  change.
• The relation between accretion and climate change
  is unclear.

31
Climate Change and Scarcity of Resources

• Degradation of agricultural land (meanly in late
  eighties and early nineties).
• Growing crop and food production.
• Stable fresh water supply (in combination with a
  increasing population, 2 a year).

32
Increase of Natural Disasters

• Natural Disasters
• Global warming is predicted to increase the
  frequency and intensity of tropical storms,
  floods, landslides, and wild fires.
• A serious disruption of the functioning of a
  community or a society causing widespread human,
  material, economic or environmental losses which
  exceed the ability of the affected community or
  society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR,
  2006).

33
Natural Disasters
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
34
Natural Disasters
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
35
Natural Disasters Bangladesh
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
36
Natural Disasters Bangladesh
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
37
Tropical Cyclones
International Union for Conservation of Nature
(IUCN), 2008
38
Floods and Storms
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
39
Floods and Storms
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
40
Floods and Storms
EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED)
41
Climate Change and Natural Disasters

• Floods, variable from year to year. Small
  increase of number of floods, decrease of number
  of affected people.
• Storms, variable from year to year.
• Decrease of tropical cyclone frequency.
• Positive relationship of frequency of Cyclone
  storm of hurricane intensity and sea surface
  temperature (IUCN, 2008).

42
Climate Change Consequences

• Likely that there is a relation between climate
  change and food, fresh water, and soil security.
• Possible that there is a relation between climate
  change and an increase of cyclone storms of
  hurricane intensity.
• But, no smoking gun.

43
Research Model
Social Effects
Consequences
Political Instability
Scarcity of Resources (Food, water, and soil
insecurity)
Economic Instability
Increase of Natural Disasters
Social Fragmentation
Migration
44
Political instability

• The majority of violent conflicts can be
  explained, at last partly, by scarcity of
  fundamental resources and the disability of the
  state to proved them (Buhaug .et al, 2008)
• Disability of a government to properly react, at
  for example the impact of a cyclone, can cause
  political unrest.

45
Political instability

• Environmental change was not a big issue by the
  last elections.
• Rural people are more focused on local
  politicians.
• People accept that the poor and institutionally
  weak regime may simple not be able to respond in
  an manner that is satisfying for the population.
• Not likely that climate change will cause
  political instability.

46
Economic instability

• Poverty has long been considered a major cause of
  civil war (Collier et al, 2003)
• Increasing inequality
• Dynamics
• State level
• Group level
• Individual level

47
Economic instability
Worldbank, 2009 World Development Indicators,
DPP Quick Query
48
Economic instability
Worldbank, 2009 World Development Indicators,
DPP Quick Query
49
Economic instability
Worldbank, 2009 World Development Indicators,
DPP Quick Query
50
Economic instability
Worldbank, 2009 World Development Indicators,
DPP Quick Query
51
Economic instability

• Likely that climate change (scarcity of resources
  and natural disasters) can cause economic
  instability on an individual level.
• Likely that climate change can cause economic
  instability on a group level.
• (Less) likely that climate change can cause
  economic instability on an state level.

52
Social Fragmentation

• Ethnicity is widely regarded as a facilitator for
  mobilization, and language, religion, and
  nationality often serve as lines of demarcation
  between contending groups.
• Ethnic identity is a crucial opportunity factor
  for building organizations, finding allies, and
  turning protest into collective violence (Khan,
  2006)

53
Social Fragmentation

• Some violence between Muslims and Hindus.
• Bengals and Hill people in the Chittagong Hill
  Tract (CHT).
• Not evidence for a link between climate change
  and social fragmentation.

54
Migration

• Competition between newcomers and local over
  diminishing natural and economic resources,
  especially if property rights are underdeveloped.
  
• A wave of migrants of different ethnic origin may
  give rise to ethnic tension and solidification of
  identities.
• Large flows of migrants may case mistrust between
  the sending and receiving state.
• Climate-induced migration may create or
  exacerbate traditional fault lines.

55
Migration
Adult between 20 and 29 Unmarried
12 Depend ency
6 Education
50 Temporary services
26 Permanent Job
M. Z. Hossain, 2001
56
Migration

• Temporary Services
• - Uneducated
• - 38 poverty, 30 better job opportunity, 15
  family pressure
• Permanent Job
• - Educated
• - Better job opportunity

M. Z. Hossain, 2001
57
Migration
M. Z. Hossain, 2001
58
Migration
Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training
(BMET)
59
Migration
Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training
(BMET)
60
Migration

• 875 thousand people went overseas in 2008 (meanly
  U.A.E and Malaysia, 65).
• One third of the migrants goes overseas (Hossian,
  2001).
• Educated guess 2.5 million migrants a year.
• 1.25 million temporary (labour) migrants
• 600 thousand permanent (labour) migrants.
• 1.7 of the total population.

61
Migration
Climate Refugee
Economic Migrant
62
Migration
Climate Refugee
Economic Migrant
63
Migration

• People dont want to leave there homes (Atiq
  Rahman, 2009).
• Life is not better across the border in
  West-Bengal, Bihar, or Tripura.
• Not likely that climate change will cause (large
  scale) migration to India.
• Likely that some of the increase of temporary
  migration is related to climate change (day
  labour).

64
Research Model
Social Effects
Violent conflict
Political Instability
Intrastate
Economic Instability
Interstate
Social Fragmentation
Migration
65
Violent Conflict
UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset and PRIO Battle
Deaths Dataset
66
Violent Conflict
UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset and PRIO Battle
Deaths Dataset
67
Natural Disasters causing conflict
German Advisory Council on Global Change
68
Natural Disasters causing conflict

• 1. Hurricane Hazel in Haiti, 1954
• 2. Typhoon in East Pakistan, 1970
• 3. Flooding and typhoon in Bangladesh, 1974
• 4. Flooding in Orissa (India), 1980
• 5. Flooding in Bihar (India), 1987
• 6. Flooding in Bangladesh, 1988
• 7. Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua and Honduras,
  1998
• 8. Flooding of the Yangtze in Anhui (China), 1998
  
• 9. Typhoon in Orissa and West Bengal (India),
  1999
• 10. Flooding and landslides in Venezuela, 1999
• 11. Flooding in West Bengal (India), 2000
• 12. Hurricane Ivan in Haiti, 2004
• 13. Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans (USA), 2005

German Advisory Council on Global Change
69
Natural Disasters causing conflict

• 2. Typhoon in East Pakistan, 1970 300,000 people
  fell victim to a typhoon in East Pakistan
  (todays Bangladesh). Dissatisfaction over the
  governments insufficient aid measures led to a
  strengthening of the separatist opposition. The
  government responded with repression and
  violence. The civil war that followed claimed
  about 3 million lives. Bangladesh gained
  independence in 1971.
•  
• 3. Flooding and typhoon in Bangladesh, 1974 In
  addition to claiming 30,000 victims, the ensuing
  destruction of a large part of the rice crop
  triggered a famine. In a political situation that
  was already tense the government called a state
  of emergency and established a presidential
  dictatorship. In the same year the President was
  murdered by the military. A transitional military
  government took over.
•   
• 6. Flooding in Bangladesh, 1988 Anti-government
  resistance intensified in the aftermath of the
  disaster. Civil unrest grew, headed by the
  oppositional parties. Two years of political
  chaos followed, eventually leading to the
  overthrow of the President. 

German Advisory Council on Global Change
70
Interstate Conflict

• Conflict with India?
• India intervened in Bangladesh (East-Pakistan) in
  1971, after a great influx of refugees.
• Large scale climate refugees not likely.
• Not likely that climate change will cause
  interstate conflict (between Bangladesh India
  ).

71
Intrastate Conflict

• Settlement and land rights.
• Erosion and accretion.
• Reverse robin hood effect.
• L and grabbers, and landless people.
• Competition for Alternatives.
• Urban Gangs.
• Possible that climate change is one of the
  explaining variable in intrastate conflict /
  disputes.

72

• Conclusion

73
Conclusion

• Likely that there is a relation between climate
  change and food, fresh water, and soil security.
• Possible that there is a relation between climate
  change and an increase of cyclone storms of
  hurricane intensity
• Not likely that climate change will cause
  political instability.
• More likely that there is a link between climate
  economic instability (individual and group
  level).

74
Conclusion

• No evidence for a relation between climate change
  and social fragmentation.
• Likely that there is a link between climate
  change and temporary migration.
• Less likely that there is a link between climate
  change and permanent migration (economic migrants
  vs climate refugee).

75
Conclusion

• Consequences of consequences
• Bangladesh is located in a difficult
  environmental area.
• Bangladesh is coping with environmental problems
  since its existence.
• Its not likely that a change in climate will
  cause (large scale) violent conflict.
• Other variables are more important in explaining
  (future) conflict in Bangladesh.

76
Introduction
Poverty
Climate Change
Population Pressure
Violent Conflict
Quality of leadership
Inequality
Lack of opportunity
77
Conclusion

• Climate change could be a trigger, accelerator,
  or multiplier.
• Bangladeshis status as climate vulnerable country
  could be advantageous, in for example maritime
  disputes or international (economical)
  negotiations.
• Progress in adapting measures, despite of lack of
  funding.

78
Conclusion
Cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh 2007 3.400 deaths
1,6 billion economic damage
Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar 2008 150.000 deaths 4
billion economic damage
VS
Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009 A Anatomy of a
Silent Crisis
79

• Thank you for your attention
• Question