Title: Chapter 10 Demographics
1Chapter 10Demographics School Finance
2- Improving student learning and ensuring that
all children receive an adequate education in the
21st century will be complicated by changing
demographics of the students to be educated, as
well as of the adults who must pay for education
through taxes. - Janet S.
Hansen, 2001.
3Demographics Finance
- Demographics describe changes in population.
4Demographics Finance, cont.
- Demographics significantly impact the costs of
providing public education.
5Changes in Our Understanding of Demographics
- For the most part, we were not concerned with
changing racial ethnic demographics.
- Until 15 or 20 years ago, demographics only
involved the number of students enrolling each
fall and if they were coming from different
neighborhoods than last year.
6Todays Schools Have More More Diverse Students
- These increasing racial, ethnic, and economic
groups have a large impact on where and how
education dollars should be spent - Equity and adequacy issues face schools with
changing demographics
7Demographic Changes Affect Teaching Learning
- Without proper planning and budgeting, students
issues of language, values, traditions,
behaviors will likely prevent otherwise effective
teachers from understanding, developing strong
relationships with, successfully teaching
students from backgrounds different than their
own
8Demographics Impact Student Achievement
- School leaders must be aware of the trends in
demographics if schools are to teach all students
to high levels of learning.
9This Chapter Will
- Analyze state and local demographic shifts in
student population and examine the associated
financial impact on public schools - Make some predictions as to what the future
demographics will look like in your locality - Examine some demographic issues involved in
teacher recruitment, selection, professional
education to meet the students needs in schools
10Understanding Diverse Students Learning Needs
- When the school districts population changes,
families from other cultures or economic
backgrounds move into the neighborhood and enroll
their children in school
- Middle class teachers beliefs and behaviors
typically do not prepare them to understand,
motivate, or instruct students from other
cultures
11U.S. Schools Operate on Middle Class Norms
Values
- For example, many believe that wealthy people
are smarter - Teachers believing this myth will not have
sufficiently high expectations for students from
poverty backgrounds and will be less likely to
teach these students to high achievement levels
12Students Bring Own Rules
- Students from poverty backgrounds bring their own
hidden rules into the school that make
classroom management and a learning focus
difficult for teachers who do not understand
these behaviors
13Students Bring Own Rules, cont.
- Students from poverty homes are likely to believe
that security comes from relationships rather
than school or work - They are used to higher noise levels receiving
key information nonverbally
14Teacher Student Classroom LearningComfort
Levels Differ
- Students
- Relationships matter most
- Noise is good
- Non-verbal tells REAL story
- Other students are entertaining
- Teachers
- Desks in
- straight rows
- Teachers lecturing
- Only one speaker at a time
- Teachers giving information
15Teacher Student Disconnects Achievement
- The results for student achievement are likely to
be discouragingly self-fulfilling - Poor student achievement among students in the
new demographic would greatly increase community
school distrust and would eventually require
significant educator time and resources to
resolve
16Teacher Attitudes Student Achievement
- Unless teachers recognize their personal biases
ignorance about students from different
backgrounds --and appropriately adjust their
views and instructional practices -- students
families will perceive teacher attitudes as
disrespectful or worse - Results for student achievement are likely to be
discouragingly self-fulfilling
17Student Achievement Community Trust
- Poor student achievement among students in the
new demographic would greatly increase community
school distrust and would eventually require
significant educator time and resources to
resolve
18Suburban School District A
- 10 Years Ago
- Students
- 98 White, affluent
- 5 Free or Reduced Price Lunches
- Teachers
- Mirrored students
- Local Economy
- Began outsourcing
- Today
- Students
- 47 White 27 Hispanic
- 23 Black
- 93 Free/Reduced Lunches
- 30 Second Language Learners
- Teachers
- Still mostly White, middle class
- Local Economy Loss of well-paying jobs loss of
fiscal resources
19What is Financial Impact of Educating These
Students?
- 10 Years Ago
- Students
- 98 White, affluent
- 5 Free or Reduced Price Lunches
- Teachers
- Mirrored students
- Local Economy
- Began outsourcing
- Today
- Students
- 47 White 27 Hispanic
- 23 Black
- 93 Free/Reduced Lunches
- 30 Second Language Learners
- Teachers
- Still mostly White, middle class
- Local Economy Loss of well-paying jobs loss of
fiscal resources
20Planning for Schooling 10 Years Later Requires
- Revised curriculum
- Professional development for staff
- Equipment facility needs
- Recruited a more diverse staff
- Programs practices to decrease the achievement
gap if the schools are to remain responsive to
their communitys needs
21Demographics Impact School Finance
- School leaders must be aware of local demographic
trends if schools are to teach all students to
high levels in a public accountability
environment - Keeping pace with changing demographics requires
funding at higher levels than before
22Poverty School Leadership
- Educational leaders in high poverty areas must
plan to meet these challenges with highly
qualified teachers and meaningful programs that
address the real at-risk behaviors facing
students, while building community support for
the direction being taken
23 Percentage Change in Public K-12 Enrollment
by State,Fall, 1996 Fall, 2001
24 States Localities Must Plan for Increases,
Decreases, Cultural/Ethnic Differences in
Student Populations Their Costs
25Enrollment Trends, 1980-2010, in Thousands
26Expected Changes in Student Populations
- The racial/ethnic backgrounds of the school-aged
population have changed - While white, non-Hispanic persons will still be
the majority, this demographic is projected to
decrease as a part of the overall population by
30age points
27Expected Changes in Student Populations
- The Black non-Hispanic population is predicted to
maintain consistently around 14 of the
population - The Hispanic group has increased and is projected
to almost double between 2000 and 2040 to 28 of
the population - The Asian/Pacific Islander/Other group continues
to rise by 1age point per - decade
28Special Needs Students inNew Demographics
- Medically fragile students
- Second language learners
- Students from other countries bring still more
learning (and occasionally physical) needs into
the classroom
29Demographics Can Help Us Plan for Potential Costs
- The Statistical Abstract of the United States,
2001, indicating 2000 data, can help us predict
what the kindergarten class of 2005 might be
like - For example, it is known that poverty increases
risk of low birth weight, low birth weight is a
good predictor of a child having learning
disabilities in schoolwith increased enrollment
of poverty students, we can expect increased
special education services and related costs
30Racial/Ethnic Background of School-Age Population
3115 Risk Factors Young Childrens Success in
School
- Poverty
- Infant child mortality
- Low birth weight
- Single parents
- Teen mothers
- Mothers using alcohol, tobacco, or drugs
- Transience
- Child abuse neglect
- Lack of quality day care
- Low wage jobs
- Unemployed parents
- Lack of access to health and medical care
- Low parent education
- Poor nutrition
- Lack of contact with English as the primary
language
32Poverty is a Risk Factor
- Poverty impacts enlarges all other risk factors
- Fully 22 of Americas children live in poverty
- America has the highest percentage of children in
poverty of any of the 28 advanced industrial
democratic countries - The U.S. also has the largest gap between rich
and poor children - Poorest children experience difficulty in general
and specifically in school
33Poverty Statistics
- 1/3 of Black Hispanic children live in poverty
- Only 10 of White children are raised in poverty
- 14 million school-aged children in poverty in
2000 - 9 million were White children
- 4 million were Black children
- 4 million were Hispanic children (included above)
34Predicting School Population from Local Poverty
Rates
- The poorest families (those with income less than
10,000 per year) have yearly birth rates of 73
per 1,000 females - Families with incomes greater than 75,000 per
year have yearly birth rates of 50 per 1,000
females - If poverty rates are increasing in a school
district or a state, it may be safe to predict
greater enrollment growth than where income is
higher
35Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local
Poverty
- Localities with increasing rates of children
qualifying for free and reduced lunch programs
need to plan for early intervention programs
dealing with resultant school issues from a
prevention perspective instead of a reactionary
perspective
36Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local
Poverty, cont.
- If poverty rates are increasing in a school
district or a state, it may be safe to predict
greater enrollment growth than where income is
higher - It is a wise fiscal investment to adequately meet
poor childrens educational needs as education
appears to be the only intervention that breaks
the poverty cycle
37School Finance Planning to Teach Children of
Poverty
- Preschool programs
- Expanded Head Start programs
- Parent education programs
- Quality day care programs
- Professional development programs for educators
to better meet students learning needs
- Early intervention programs address school issues
from a prevention perspective, include
38Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs
- America has the highest known migration level of
any first world country - 43 million Americans move each year
- 14 stay within the same county, 4 within the
same state, but to a different county, and 4 to
a different state
39Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,
cont.
- Low-income children move more frequently than
their higher income counterparts - They lose continuity of instruction learning
along with having to adjust to a new home,
friends, teachers
40Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,
cont.
- Losing continuity of instruction, learning,
relationships often reduces students
achievement - Frequent moves contribute to the Achievement Gap
41Transience Varies State to State
- Approximately 80 of those who live in
Pennsylvania were born there - Florida, on the other hand, has a relatively high
transience rate only 30 of the residents were
born in the state
42Transience Varies State to State
- Teachers in Pennsylvania and Florida may start
and end the year with 25 students - The Florida teacher, however, unlike the
Pennsylvania teacher, may have 20 different
students from the 25 who started the year
43Transience is a Risk Factor
- Educational leaders need to plan programs that
ease the educational disadvantages of transience
for students provide professional development
for those who deal with these students -
44Transience Increases Risk for School Problems
- Increases family stress and conflict
- Increases feelings of alienation, loss
- Linked to psychiatric disorders behavior
problems for preschool children - Increase probability of needing special education
in schools
- Areas with transience issues, include
- Military bases locales
- High poverty areas
- Agricultural areas with migrant workers
- Should be aware of the related emotional
problems implement programs for these children
families.
45Illegal Immigrants School Finance
- It is estimated that the U.S. has approximately 5
million illegal immigrants - Almost sixty five percent of these individuals
live in one of three states California
(2,000,000), Texas (700,000), and New York
(540,000) - Estimate that one in five illegal immigrants is
school-aged, means more than 1 million such
children attending U.S. schools
46Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.
- In the early to mid-1970s Texas was
- spending millions of state dollars each
- year educating children of illegal immigrants
- The legislators thought that since these students
were in the country illegally, Texas should not
have to spend its tax dollars educating them - In May 1975, the Texas legislature revised its
laws to withhold state education funds to those
school districts for children who were not
legally admitted into the United States
47Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.
- The United States Supreme Court
- in Plyler v. Doe, 1982, determined
- that undocumented children of alien parents
could not be denied a public education - The court reasoned that the Fourteenth Amendment
provides that No State shalldeprive any person
of life, liberty, or property, without due
process of law nor deny to any person within its
jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws
48Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.
- The financial impact on Texas was enormous
- There may have been 50,000 children of illegal
immigrants in the Texas public schools - The state share per pupil in 1975 may have been
2,000 with the total yearly spending over
100,000,000
49Second Language Learners School Finance
of Hispanic School-Aged Children
- The fastest growing racial/ethnic group in the US
is Hispanic - The lack of contact with English as the primary
language is a risk factor in school
50Second Language Learners School Finance, cont.
- In 2005, if 15 of new students enrolling in U.S.
public schools is Hispanic, 4,791,200 children
fall into this category - If 10 of these children are ESOL (needing
English language instruction) and we use the
Florida model of pupil weighting at 1.298, the
yearly additional cost to educate these children
is 10,742,598,662
51According to the U.S. Census Bureau
- For infants born to black mothers, the of low
birth weight babies is 13 almost double that
of the average
- We may predict, therefore, that black children
may be at greater risk of being identified for
special education services than other children
52According to the U.S. Census Bureau , cont.
- If your state or locality is experiencing higher
enrollment of black students, one might expect a
larger enrollment in special education students
53Infant Child Mortality Rates School Finance
- The United States has a rather surprisingly high
rate of infant mortality - In the United States in 1998, there were 681
deaths per 100,000 babies under the age of one
- The infant mortality rate for white babies in the
first year of life is 571 per 100,000 babies
while the rate for black babies is 1,363 per
100,000
54Infant Child Mortality Rates School Finance,
cont.
- Infant mortality can lead to childrens
parents feelings of alienation - This condition has been linked to psychiatric
disorders behavior problems for preschool
children
- These children have a high probability of needing
special education programs later as they enter
public schools especially in LD and DD
(developmental delay) programs
55Rate of Single Parenthood School Finance
- In the United States, about 1/3 of all births
were to unmarried parents - This is a risk factor is associated with poverty
- Of births to unwed mothers, 26 were white, 68
were black, 42 were Hispanic, 58 Native
American, and 5 Asian - For every ethnic/racial group a child raised by a
single mother is 2 to 3 times as likely to be
raised in poverty than a child raised in a
two-parent home
56Too Much TV-Watching School Finance
- Research findings indicate that for each
additional hour of watching TV per day,
attention problems increase by approximately 10
- Toddlers who watched 8 hours of TV per day would
have an 80 increased risk of attention problems
than a child who watched no TV -
57Too Much TV-Watching School Finance, cont.
- ADHD is a qualifying condition for special
education services - The implications for increased learning problems
and related practices to address them
increases the cost of educating these students
58Too Much TV-Watching School Finance, cont.
- School districts with increasing percentages of
children eligible to receive free or reduced
lunch need to understand other ramifications of
this changing demographic
- Students in the poorest 20 of families watched
TV 18 hours per week rather than the 11 hours per
week in the top income group - Lack of quality day care may be a significant
contributor to time in front of TV
59Grandparents Raising their Grandchildren
- 4 million school-aged children live with their
grandparent/s - Grandparent/s have sole custody of approximately
1 million school-aged children
- Factors include
- Parents in jail or drug rehabilitation centers
- Parents who for one reason or another are simply
incapable of caring for their own children
60Grandparents Raising Grandchildren School
Finance
- Little is known about the levels of support for
school funding issues or the voting records for
these grandparents - In school districts where this phenomenon occurs,
school leaders need to provide support mechanisms
for these individuals and provide the
professional development for staff members who
interact with them
61Child Abuse Neglect School Finance
- In 2002, an estimated 2.6 million referrals were
made to local or state Child Protective Services
(CPS) for investigation - Involved nearly 4.5 million children
- Approximately 896,000 children found to be
victims of child abuse or neglect
62Increased Cost of Educating Emotionally Disturbed
Students
- Using the Florida model, the cost for educating a
child diagnosed as socially maladjusted costs 2.3
times the base cost per student - If only 1/10 of the 418,600 children referred are
eventually diagnosed with emotional problems
the 41,860 students at 2.3 times the average
pupil expenditure in 2002 of 7,524 - Yearly cost to society through school costs alone
would be 724,395,672
63Teacher Shortage School Finance
- The U.S. Department of Education estimates that
schools will have to replace more than 2 million
teachers over the next ten years, an average of
200,000 new teachers, annually - Teacher shortages are most pervasive in math,
science, special education, bilingual and ESL
classes
64Cumulative of Teachers Leaving Profession Each
Year
65Many Reasons for Teacher Shortages
- Approximately half of all beginning teachers
leave the profession within their first five
years - Almost 16 percent of beginning teachers leave
before the end of their first school year
- Leavers cite
- Job dissatisfaction
- Desire for career outside education
- Working conditions
- Low salary considering amount of own education
job responsibilities
66High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance
- Replacing 200,000 experienced teachers with
100,000 experienced 100,000 inexperienced
(lower salaried) teachers could save 1 billion
each year that could be redirected to improving
teacher quality
- Teachers with many years of experience and
advanced degrees will be replaced with new,
inexperienced teachers
67High Teacher TurnoverCosts Taxpayers
- Business models cost out employee turnover costs
to include 25 of the employees salary and
benefits - Organizational costs of termination, recruitment,
hiring substitutes, and new training costs,
estimates are that turnover costs U.S. public
education approximately 2.1 billion each year
68Finance Redirection to Increase Teacher Quality
- More than 2 billion each year could be
redirected to teacher salary and benefits
enhancements to attract retain high quality
teachers
- If the 1 billion annual savings were combined
with a 50 reduction of the 2.1 billion
organizational costs
69High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance
- In education, induction, mentoring, and training
costs are concentrated in the early years of
employment - Estimates say that a teacher who quits after one
year cost the school district 13,500 in lost
recruitment and training - The cost jumps to 50,000 for a teacher who quits
after three years
70Alternatively Certified Teachers Have High
Attrition
- 80,000 teachers entered the teaching profession
in the last 10 years through non-traditional,
teacher prep programs - One study found that 60 of those
- who enter teaching through short-cut
- programs leave teaching in the first 3
- years as opposed to the 30 who leave in
- the same time frame from traditional
- programs and the 10 to 15 who leave from
- five-year teacher preparation programs
71Induction Programs for Teachers Reduce Later Costs
- Since faculty stability has been shown to enhance
school improvement attrition rates for new
teachers participating - in induction programs is 15
- (compared to 26 for those
- who had no induction support), it
- makes financial common sense for the
educational leader to research quality induction
programs to minimize personnel costs
72Low Salary Hurts Teaching as Career
- The National Center for Education Statistics
(NCES) reported - 28 of former public school teachers
- 33 of private school teachers
- left the classroom and went to work for
private businesses because of better salary or
commission.
73Quality Teachers Can IncreaseStudent Achievement
- ETS study examined math and science scores on the
National Assessment of Educational Progress
(NAEP), also known as the Nations Report Card
- When teachers had strong content knowledge, had
learned to work with students from other
cultures, and learned to work with special needs
students, their students tested more than a full
grade level above their peers
74Teacher Shortage HurtsUrban, Low Income Schools
- Much research indicates that low income and urban
schools experience higher degrees of teacher
turnover and greater teacher shortages than other
types of schools
- As a result, urban and low-income students are
more likely to have under-prepared and
non-certified teachers than any other group of
students
75Teacher Quality Increases Student Achievement
- Over time, students placed with high quality
teachers make significantly higher achievement
gains - Grade 3 students scoring at approximately the
same level, after 3 consecutive years with highly
effective teachers, score 35 ile points higher
in reading scores and 49ile points higher in
math scores than do peers with less effective
teachers - Students with less effective teachers may even
lose ground, in terms of achievement scores
76Teacher Quality Could Reducethe Achievement
Gap, but
- Low income and minority students are nearly twice
as likely to assigned to low quality teachers
than their more affluent, white counterparts - Other research indicates that poor black students
are less likely to have a well-qualified teacher
than poor white students, especially at the
secondary level
77Administrator Demographics Quality Principal
Shortage
- There is a growing shortage of qualified people
willing to take on the principals job - The graying of school administrators linked
with the increased job complexity, rising
standards, greater accountability demands have
led to increased numbers of school leadership
vacancies nationwide - Approximately 40 of the countrys
- current principals will retire by 2008
78Administrator Demographics Principal Shortage
- In a 2001 Public Agenda survey, superintendents
in large, urban districts are somewhat more
likely to experience an insufficient supply of
principal applicants 61 say they are
experiencing at least a somewhat serious shortage
of principals.
79Administrator Demographics Principal Shortage,
cont.
- The National Association of Elementary School
Principals (NAESP) estimates that approximately
40 of the countrys 93,200 current principals
will retire by 2008 - The recruitment and retention of
- qualified principals has become
- one of the greatest challenges facing
- school systems across the U.S
80Principal Recruitment Retention Are Costly
- Approximately 22 of all current principals could
be eligible to retire - Blacks and Hispanics appear to be under-
represented in the principal population
- Attracting and retaining quality principals can
be an expensive proposition for school districts
with competition for high quality,
underrepresented racial/ethnic groups
81Average Principals Salaries Racial/Ethnic Groups
82Issues Contributing toPrincipal Shortage
- The varied and enormous demands on school
leaders time and energies force many to make
serious compromises in their personal and family
lives
- Issues of community respect, prestige, and salary
also make the careers less attractive to
promising quality candidates. - In some cases, principals earn less per diem than
senior teachers
83Principal Quality is Also a Major Concern
- Many superintendents acknowledge difficulties in
finding effective, well-qualified principal
applicants - Just over half (52) say they are happy with
the job their current principals are doing,
overall
- Only 41 of large urban district superintendents
say they are happy with their current
principals performance
84Principal Quality Lacking
- Barely one in three superintendents say they
are happy with their districts principals when
it comes to
- Recruiting talented teachers (36)
- Knowing how to make tough decisions (35)
- Delegating responsibility and authority (34)
- Involving teachers in decisions (33)
- Using money effectively (32)
85Principal Quality Student Achievement
- Owings and Kaplans (2004) study finds that
elementary principals rated highly by supervisors
using professional standards have significantly
higher achieving students than principals rated
lower
- Middle and high school principals ratings were
in the expected direction although not
statistically significant
86Principal Quality School Finance
- Knowing how to use precious (and limited)
school resources effectively to maximize student
learning and develop and maintain a quality
teaching staff, quality principals makes a
measurable difference in the value taxpayers get
for supporting schools.
87Ideas to Improve Principal Quality, Reduce
Shortage
- Improving school administrators pay and prestige
- Improving the quality of principals professional
development - Making it much easier for principals to remove
ineffective teachers - Creating initiatives that encourage teachers to
consider school leadership careers
88Principal Turnover Impacts School Finance
- The average salary for school administrators in
the 1999-2000 school year (latest data available)
was 66,504 - Approximately 22 of all principals could be
eligible to retire. Less experienced/expensive
principals would probably replace them - If 10 of the nations 93,200 principals retire
each year at a savings of 15,000 per year per
principal, the national savings would be almost
140 million - This personnel cost savings, as with teachers,
could be redirected to administrator salary and
benefits enhancements to attract and retain high
quality principals in the schools
89School Finance Issues Principals Daily Needs
- Budgets have not kept pace with new spending
demands - Most superintendents (66) and principals (53)
say insufficient funding is a more pressing
problem for them than lack of parental
involvement, ineffective administrators, or poor
teacher quality
- Not only have responsibilities increased but also
more mandates have been assigned to school
leaders without the corresponding funds to enact
them