Oregon: Demographic changes

1
Oregon Demographic changes
2
National Demographics

• Aging population changing labor market as baby
  boomers retire and fiscal impact on federal and
  state budgets.
• Changes in population growth, 2000-2020
• 65 Plus 54
• 55-64 73
• 45-54 3
• 35-44 -10
• 25-34 7
• 15-24 8
• Under 14 7
• Source Census Bureau

3
Federal Reserve and GAO

• Major labor market shift.
• Strain on federal and state government finances.
• Federal Reserve The fundamental conclusion of
  our study is that, barring a significant increase
  in labor force participation, population aging
  will lead to a reduction in per capita
  consumption relative to a baseline in which the
  demographic composition of the population does
  not change. The size of any consumption
  reduction depends critically on whether the
  adjustment happens sooner or later and on whether
  the labor force participation of the elderly
  changes. Important policy questions, then, are
  whose consumption path fall, by how much, when,
  and by what means?

4
GAO

• December 2005 report Demographic changes pose
  serious challenges for employers, the economy,
  and older Americansthe loss of experienced
  workers could have adverse effects on
  productivity and economic growth. Potential
  skill gaps from impending retirements.

5
Labor market

• Demand for skilled workers will increase putting
  a premium on education investments and reform
  (i.e. diploma requirements).
• Ernest Young Time is running out as millions
  of Baby Boomers reach early retirement ages.
  Employers need to act now
• Carnegie Corporation on consequences for schools
  and teaching. In the future, high wage level
  societies will be those whose economies are based
  on the use of a wide scale of very skilled
  workers, backed up by the most advanced
  technologies available.

6
State Actions

• Washington State government workforce
  succession plan.
• New York Employer succession plans.
• Delaware Comprehensive demographic report with
  emphasis on policy implications.

7
Oregon Demographic Changes

• Oregon is facing average growth in its aging
  population.
• Oregon is above average in an active aging
  population.
• Labor force participation 55 plus Oregon rank
  38th.
• Contribution to state personal income of 55 plus
  Oregon rank 40th.
• State population 85 plus Oregon rank 34th.
• Voter participation 65 plus Oregon rank 2nd.

8
Oregon economy and labor market challenge.

• Oregon Employment Department report, Will Oregon
  Have Enough Workers?
• During the coming two decades, increased
  retirements will result in many replacement job
  openings and add to the tightness of the labor
  market. Many employers will have to scramble and
  compete for workers, even in industries with slow
  job growth.

9
Oregons fiscal challenge.

• Rising demand for education investments combined
  with rising costs for senior services.
• Ballot measure 11 and fiscal impact for growing
  corrections budget.
• Tax structure.

10
Purpose of an Oregon Demographic Report

• Data collection.
• PSU Population Research Center
• Employment Department (LMI)
• Policy analysis
• Skilled workforce
• Education investments
• Process Leading change
• Sense of urgency.
• Guiding coalition Business, labor, elected
  officials
• Promote and advance current actions.

11
Conclusion

• Oregon Diploma Project
• Prime example of long term planning. One good
  example is worth a thousand theories.
• Puts diploma changes in context of why it is
  important now!
• Explicit decision making.
• Sustainability not just an environmental and
  energy issue.