Title: Census planning and budgeting
1Census planningand budgeting
UNECE Training Workshop on Census Questionnaire
Design for SPECA member countries (Dushanbe,
12-16 March 2007)
2Content of presentation
- 1. The importance of census planning
- 2. Establishing a work plan
- 3. Setting up a financial outline
- 4. Preparation of the budget
- 5. Monitoring census operations
- 6. Controlling expenditures
3NOTICE
- At the Baku Workshop, census planning and
budgeting was covered as part of the
presentation on Overall census management - This presentation moves from the basic concepts
presented in Baku and expands the discussion on
census planning and budgeting - Topics already covered in Baku are not repeated
in detail here. Participants who were not in Baku
may consult the presentation on Overall census
management (pres. 1) on the UNECE website
http//www.unece.org/stats/documents/2006.10.censu
s.htm
41. The importance of census planning1.1 What is
census planning
- Census planning is the process linking the
different phases of the census cycle - Preparation
- Field operations
- Processing
- Dissemination
- Evaluation
51. The importance of census planning
- Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a
preceding phase - ? The quality of the output from each phase has a
direct effect on the success of the next phase
61. The importance of census planning1.2 Aim of
the census planning process
- The aim of the census planning process is to
ensure that - 1. Each phase is properly resourced and organized
- 2. The output of each phase is of sufficient
quality for all subsequent phases - 3. All dependencies between the different phases
are identified
71. The importance of census planning1.3 Why
census planning is important
- Census planning is the most critical process to
the completion of a successful census - Why?
- ? Inadequate planning may lead to underestimating
time and resources (financial, human, technical)
required for the different census phases - ? Inadequate planning may result in serious
problems in census operations that could not be
solved at a later stage, and could ultimately
affect the quality of census output
82. Establishing a work plan2.1 Characteristics
of the work plan
- IMPORTANT
- ?Time is an essential dimension for good census
planning Census planning should start AS EARLY
AS POSSIBLE before the census! - ?Census planning should not remain static but be
FLEXIBLE to take into account changes that may
occur during the census cycle
92. Establishing a work plan2.2 Important issues
to be considered
- Issues to be considered when planning a census
- (a) Specifying the role of the census as part of
the larger National Statistical Programme - (b) Clarifying the role of Government
- Providing a legal framework for the census
- Providing funding for the census
- Providing logistical support for the census
- (c) Setting census goals
- Identify stakeholders and their requirements
- State priorities
These issues were discussed in detail at Baku
workshop (see pres. 1 on Overall census
management on UNECE website)
102. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
- The census is a BIG project, which include a
number of projects dependent on one another. - ? Need to develop a work plan with a hierarchical
structure - Projects (ex. Field operations)
- Phases (ex. Field mapping)
- Activities (ex. Enumeration area design)
- Tasks (ex. Prepare enumeration area design
manual) - The work plan should also include
- Milestones Specific points in time at which key
outcomes are expected (to measure projects
progress)
112. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
- Given the great number of specific activities,
it is practical to break down the general work
plan into more detailed work plans for the
different projects and phases of the census.
Example - field operations work plan
- data processing work plan
- training work plan
- ? It is of crucial importance to ensure the
necessary consistency of these work plans
122. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
?Project management software can be effectively
used to develop good and consistent work plans
?Software can be commercial or developed
in-house
- ? In the 2000 census round, 28 ECE countries
(2/3 of reporting countries) used management
software - - 18 countries used commercial software
- - 11 countries developed software in-house
- Source UNECE Survey, 2004
- See details in table 3.1 of UNECE Publication on
2000 Round of Censuses
132. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
- To develop the work plan, all components
(projects, phases, activities, tasks) must be
identified at each level, and the relative
timetable defined - A topdown approach is recommended, moving from
broad components down to more detailed activities
and tasks - Often several iterations may be needed to improve
work plan - As long as framework develops
- 1. people can be assigned responsibilities, and
- 2. reporting and review arrangements can be
established - Need for coordination and communication among
activities
142. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
Example of detailed work plan (by Australia),
with list of activities and relative timetable
See Annex II of Handbook on Census Management
for Population and Housing Censuses on UNSD
website (http//unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/) Examp
le of a model census project timetable
152. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
Extract from Annex II Example of a model
census project timetable
162. Establishing a work plan2.4 The Gantt chart
- Useful tool for planning and monitoring the
Gantt chart
172. Establishing a work plan2.4 The Gantt chart
- Time frame in weeks, months or quarters
-
- Activities
- Visual representation of relations between
activities
182. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the
duration of various activities
- How to assess the duration of each activity?
- ? Use realistic information from previous census
or other similar operation - ? The pilot census can provide good estimates,
but only if carried out under conditions closely
resembling the actual census
192. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the
duration of various activities
- Pay particular attention to activities that
require decisions to be taken at a very early
stage - Example Purchasing computers or other technical
equipment may require relatively long time (issue
call for tenders, selection, production,
delivery) - ? The scheduling of the work plan should allow
for ample time for all materials to arrive at
their respective destinations before they are
actually needed
202. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the
duration of various activities
- Local conditions and transportation facilities
should be always taken into account - Example Questionnaires and other materials could
get wet and spoiled in certain conditions, in
particular during winter and rainy seasons. - ? Take necessary measures to minimise the risk
that printed material is exposed to the danger of
getting wet and spoiled during transport and
storage. Printing should not be completed too
long before the material is required.
212. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the
amount of work
- As part of the work plan, the amount of work in
physical terms should be assessed for each
activity - Example for field enumeration the amount of work
can be measured by the number of households to be
enumerated and the average time needed to
enumerate an household - ? This information is required for estimating the
number of enumerators required in order to
accomplish the operation within the time
scheduled in the work plan - The assessment of the number of field staff
(enumerators, supervisors, managers) was
discussed in detail at Baku workshop (see pres.
7 on Staff recruitment on UNECE website)
222. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the
amount of work
- Example for data entry the amount of work can be
measured in terms of the number of questionnaires
to be entered (or scanned) - ? This information is required for estimating the
number of data entry machines (or scanners) and
operators required
See Annex V of Handbook on Census Management for
Population and Housing Censuses on UNSD website
(http//unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/) Time and
equipment estimations for manual census data
entry and scanner census data entry
232. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the
amount of work
- Information on the expected amount of work in
physical terms for each activity is also needed
for monitoring the rate of accomplishment of
specific activities, so that timely action can
be taken in case delays are detected
242. Establishing a work plan2.7 Risk management
- ? Work plans should also deal with risk
management - Which risks? ? All possible events that could
occur and have a negative impact on the success
of the census - Risks with significant likelihood should be
managed explicitly by developing fully detailed
plans parallel to the census plan - Risk management is essential because of the
importance of the census and the fact that it is
an infrequent exercise - ? The success or failure of the census may depend
on the implementation of the plans associated
with these risks if they occur
253. Setting up a financial outline3.1 Assigning
costs to activities
- From the work plan a financial outline can be
drawn up by assigning costs to specific
activities
263. Setting up a financial outline3.2 Different
kinds of costs
- Two kinds of costs should be distinguished
- i. Those for which the total cost derives
directly from the product of a unit cost and a
physical quantityExample If N computers are
required for data entry at US X each, the total
cost would be (US X) N - ii. Those for which the cost is either a flat
rate or a non-linear function of the
quantityExample of flat rate The honorarium of
an expert Example of non-linear function
printing costs, with fixed cost variable costs
where unit costs may decrease with quantity
273. Setting up a financial outline3.3 Estimating
the costs
- The assessments of costs (flat rate, linear on
non-linear function) should be based on realistic
price estimates obtained from previous
experiences (previous census, pilot census) or by
experts or providers of goods and services - Example estimates from printers for printing
costs
283. Setting up a financial outline 3.3 Estimating
the costs
- If expenditures for previous census are used as a
base, they should be corrected for - - Increased costs (ex. salary increases,
inflation) - - Decreased costs or efficiency gains (ex. new
technology) - - Policy changes
- - Population increase
- Very important to estimate salary costs (largest
component)
For estimating staff costs for enumeration and
data processing, see Ch.III sec.B and Ch.IV sec.C
of Handbook on Census Management for Population
and Housing Censuses on UNSD website
(http//unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/)
294. Preparation of the budget4.1 From the
financial outline to the budget
- The budget can be set up directly from the
financial outline by aggregating costs of
specific activities according to the financial
time schedule - The budget normally should be prepared in
accordance with the regulations of the
government, and the standard set forth by the
authorities empowered to approve and appropriate
the funds
304. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
- IMPORTANT The census budget MUST
- 1) Be prepared well in advance
- 2) Cover ALL known activities
- 3) Allocate sufficient resources to each phase
- ? Funds allocated and used effectively on
planning and preparation will result in savings
in all other phases, namely in enumeration and
processing operations
314. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
- REMEMBER to allocate sufficient resources to the
dissemination phase - ? The users will judge the census on the ability
to deliver the data on time and in the way desired
324. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
? In the 2000 census round, ECE countries spent
on average only 5 of their census budget for
publication, dissemination and documentation ? 23
countries (2/3 of reporting countries) spent less
than 3! Source UNECE Survey, 2004 ? Detailed
information on census costs in the 2000 census
round is available in the UNECE Publication on
the 2000 Round of Censuses (Part I, Ch. 4)
334. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
- Other issues to consider
- The census budget is highly cyclical (peaks
during enumeration and processing) - The census budget should have built in some
contingency allowance for unexpected expenses
344. Preparation of the budget4.3 Level of detail
- The census budget should be detailed enough to
permit easy examination and/or review and
subsequent approval by officials concerned - The census budget is generally less detailed
than the financial outline - ? Example all salaries and wages could be
regrouped by year even if the staff requirements
of the census vary largely over the census cycle
354. Preparation of the budget4.3 Level of detail
- In large countries with socio-economic
conditions varying from province to province, for
some items a budget could be prepared for each
province separately. They could be then pooled
together to arrive at a country budget - Example If transport and communication
facilities may not exist uniformly in all the
provinces, separate estimates of travel and
transport costs could be made for individual
provinces
365. Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring
the work plan
- Developing a good census work plan is important,
but not sufficient! - ? The work plan must be MONITORED closely and on
a regular basis, and feedback be delivered to all
levels of management
37Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the
work plan
- The review should be conducted at least each
quarter, but in the crucial period (field work) a
continuous day-to-day review is recommended - Most important components to monitor are
- Time for completing a task
- Resource usage per task
- Cost per task
- Milestones
38Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the
work plan
- ? All deviations from planned schedule, costs and
resources should be analysed and the impact
assessed - ? Any delay occurring along any line of activity
could have a chain reaction in the subsequent
activity of the programme, affecting both work
plan and budget
39Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the
work plan
- Ideally, the work plan should remain unchanged
- However
- in some cases it may be necessary to make
changes to the plan and timetable - Example If it is estimated that a key task
leading to a milestones cannot be completed in
the planned time, then the task must be extended
and the work plan modified
40Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the
work plan
- Whenever the work plan is modified
- ? All possible implications of the changes on
the other components of the work plan and on the
budget should be carefully considered - ? All key personnel potentially affected by the
changes should be promptly informed
416. Controlling expenditures6.1 Monitoring the
census budget
- Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
- ? This would allow to identify on time possible
over-expenditures and shortfalls, and take
appropriate measures - Two levels of monitoring
- 1) Every month (or at least every quarter)
monitor expenditures against funding for each
project - 2) Every year Monitor total yearly expenditures
against the estimates of expenditures for all
years of the census cycle prepared in advance
426. Controlling expenditures6.2 Expenditure
control procedures
- Given the large amount of expenditure involved in
a census, some control procedures have to be
introduced to ensure the efficient use of funds - Often a system of expenditure control procedures
is designed and put in place by the funding
agency - It is important to prepare complete and clear
guidelines on financial policies and procedures
436. Controlling expenditures6.3 Control of flows
of funds to field offices
- For a census office which usually operates
through its field personnel at various
administrative levels, an efficient cost and
control system should be set up to ensure an easy
control of the flows of funds from the central
office to the field offices
446. Controlling expenditures6.3 Control of flows
of funds to field offices
- Example
- The central office issues fund allotments for a
census administrative area, such as a provincial
office - The province then sub-allots amounts to the
different areas under its supervision for their
operational expenses, broken down as required
(for instance salaries and wages, travelling
expenses, supplies and materials, etc.) - ? Field staff should be able to draw an amount,
depending on the needs of the office, for the
quarter but not beyond the cash ceiling allowance
for that particular item of operating expenses
456. Controlling expenditures6.4 Keeping account
of expenditures
- ? The budget staff of the central office should
keep a regular account of fund disbursements,
reflecting all types of expenditure incurred - ? The account should also show on a current basis
the amount spent for a project together with the
unspent balance - ? It is useful to adopt of a coding system
whereby every type of expenditure is identified
with a code number
466. Controlling expenditures6.5 Progress reports
on expenditure and output
- A prerequisite for establishing expenditure
control is the availability of information on
expenditure incurred and the corresponding output
of work - Progress reports should be prepared at regular
intervals (for instance once a month) - Progress reports should be compatible with the
form in which both the work plan and the
financial outline have been prepared
476. Controlling expenditures6.5 Progress reports
on expenditure and output
- Progress reports should include information on
- 1) Expenditure incurred
- 2) Corresponding output achieved
- and if possible also on
- 3) Outputs expected to be achieved in the
subsequent month - 4) Outputs expected to be achieved in the current
year as a whole