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Census planning and budgeting

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Title: Census planning and budgeting


1
Census planningand budgeting
UNECE Training Workshop on Census Questionnaire
Design for SPECA member countries (Dushanbe,
12-16 March 2007)
  • Paolo Valente (UNECE)

2
Content of presentation
  • 1. The importance of census planning
  • 2. Establishing a work plan
  • 3. Setting up a financial outline
  • 4. Preparation of the budget
  • 5. Monitoring census operations
  • 6. Controlling expenditures

3
NOTICE
  • At the Baku Workshop, census planning and
    budgeting was covered as part of the
    presentation on Overall census management
  • This presentation moves from the basic concepts
    presented in Baku and expands the discussion on
    census planning and budgeting
  • Topics already covered in Baku are not repeated
    in detail here. Participants who were not in Baku
    may consult the presentation on Overall census
    management (pres. 1) on the UNECE website
    http//www.unece.org/stats/documents/2006.10.censu
    s.htm

4
1. The importance of census planning1.1 What is
census planning
  • Census planning is the process linking the
    different phases of the census cycle
  • Preparation
  • Field operations
  • Processing
  • Dissemination
  • Evaluation

5
1. The importance of census planning
  • The census cycle
  • Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a
    preceding phase
  • ? The quality of the output from each phase has a
    direct effect on the success of the next phase

6
1. The importance of census planning1.2 Aim of
the census planning process
  • The aim of the census planning process is to
    ensure that
  • 1. Each phase is properly resourced and organized
  • 2. The output of each phase is of sufficient
    quality for all subsequent phases
  • 3. All dependencies between the different phases
    are identified

7
1. The importance of census planning1.3 Why
census planning is important
  • Census planning is the most critical process to
    the completion of a successful census
  • Why?
  • ? Inadequate planning may lead to underestimating
    time and resources (financial, human, technical)
    required for the different census phases
  • ? Inadequate planning may result in serious
    problems in census operations that could not be
    solved at a later stage, and could ultimately
    affect the quality of census output

8
2. Establishing a work plan2.1 Characteristics
of the work plan
  • IMPORTANT
  • ?Time is an essential dimension for good census
    planning Census planning should start AS EARLY
    AS POSSIBLE before the census!
  • ?Census planning should not remain static but be
    FLEXIBLE to take into account changes that may
    occur during the census cycle

9
2. Establishing a work plan2.2 Important issues
to be considered
  • Issues to be considered when planning a census
  • (a) Specifying the role of the census as part of
    the larger National Statistical Programme
  • (b) Clarifying the role of Government
  • Providing a legal framework for the census
  • Providing funding for the census
  • Providing logistical support for the census
  • (c) Setting census goals
  • Identify stakeholders and their requirements
  • State priorities

These issues were discussed in detail at Baku
workshop (see pres. 1 on Overall census
management on UNECE website)
10
2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
  • The census is a BIG project, which include a
    number of projects dependent on one another.
  • ? Need to develop a work plan with a hierarchical
    structure
  • Projects (ex. Field operations)
  • Phases (ex. Field mapping)
  • Activities (ex. Enumeration area design)
  • Tasks (ex. Prepare enumeration area design
    manual)
  • The work plan should also include
  • Milestones Specific points in time at which key
    outcomes are expected (to measure projects
    progress)

11
2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
  • Given the great number of specific activities,
    it is practical to break down the general work
    plan into more detailed work plans for the
    different projects and phases of the census.
    Example
  • field operations work plan
  • data processing work plan
  • training work plan
  • ? It is of crucial importance to ensure the
    necessary consistency of these work plans

12
2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
?Project management software can be effectively
used to develop good and consistent work plans
?Software can be commercial or developed
in-house
  • ? In the 2000 census round, 28 ECE countries
    (2/3 of reporting countries) used management
    software
  • - 18 countries used commercial software
  • - 11 countries developed software in-house
  • Source UNECE Survey, 2004
  • See details in table 3.1 of UNECE Publication on
    2000 Round of Censuses

13
2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
  • To develop the work plan, all components
    (projects, phases, activities, tasks) must be
    identified at each level, and the relative
    timetable defined
  • A topdown approach is recommended, moving from
    broad components down to more detailed activities
    and tasks
  • Often several iterations may be needed to improve
    work plan
  • As long as framework develops
  • 1. people can be assigned responsibilities, and
  • 2. reporting and review arrangements can be
    established
  • Need for coordination and communication among
    activities

14
2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
Example of detailed work plan (by Australia),
with list of activities and relative timetable
See Annex II of Handbook on Census Management
for Population and Housing Censuses on UNSD
website (http//unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/) Examp
le of a model census project timetable
15
2. Establishing a work plan2.3 Developing the
work plan
Extract from Annex II Example of a model
census project timetable
16
2. Establishing a work plan2.4 The Gantt chart
  • Useful tool for planning and monitoring the
    Gantt chart

17
2. Establishing a work plan2.4 The Gantt chart
  • Time frame in weeks, months or quarters
  • Activities
  • Visual representation of relations between
    activities

18
2. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the
duration of various activities
  • How to assess the duration of each activity?
  • ? Use realistic information from previous census
    or other similar operation
  • ? The pilot census can provide good estimates,
    but only if carried out under conditions closely
    resembling the actual census

19
2. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the
duration of various activities
  • Pay particular attention to activities that
    require decisions to be taken at a very early
    stage
  • Example Purchasing computers or other technical
    equipment may require relatively long time (issue
    call for tenders, selection, production,
    delivery)
  • ? The scheduling of the work plan should allow
    for ample time for all materials to arrive at
    their respective destinations before they are
    actually needed

20
2. Establishing a work plan2.5 Assessing the
duration of various activities
  • Local conditions and transportation facilities
    should be always taken into account
  • Example Questionnaires and other materials could
    get wet and spoiled in certain conditions, in
    particular during winter and rainy seasons.
  • ? Take necessary measures to minimise the risk
    that printed material is exposed to the danger of
    getting wet and spoiled during transport and
    storage. Printing should not be completed too
    long before the material is required.

21
2. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the
amount of work
  • As part of the work plan, the amount of work in
    physical terms should be assessed for each
    activity
  • Example for field enumeration the amount of work
    can be measured by the number of households to be
    enumerated and the average time needed to
    enumerate an household
  • ? This information is required for estimating the
    number of enumerators required in order to
    accomplish the operation within the time
    scheduled in the work plan
  • The assessment of the number of field staff
    (enumerators, supervisors, managers) was
    discussed in detail at Baku workshop (see pres.
    7 on Staff recruitment on UNECE website)

22
2. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the
amount of work
  • Example for data entry the amount of work can be
    measured in terms of the number of questionnaires
    to be entered (or scanned)
  • ? This information is required for estimating the
    number of data entry machines (or scanners) and
    operators required

See Annex V of Handbook on Census Management for
Population and Housing Censuses on UNSD website
(http//unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/) Time and
equipment estimations for manual census data
entry and scanner census data entry
23
2. Establishing a work plan2.6 Assessing the
amount of work
  • Information on the expected amount of work in
    physical terms for each activity is also needed
    for monitoring the rate of accomplishment of
    specific activities, so that timely action can
    be taken in case delays are detected

24
2. Establishing a work plan2.7 Risk management
  • ? Work plans should also deal with risk
    management
  • Which risks? ? All possible events that could
    occur and have a negative impact on the success
    of the census
  • Risks with significant likelihood should be
    managed explicitly by developing fully detailed
    plans parallel to the census plan
  • Risk management is essential because of the
    importance of the census and the fact that it is
    an infrequent exercise
  • ? The success or failure of the census may depend
    on the implementation of the plans associated
    with these risks if they occur

25
3. Setting up a financial outline3.1 Assigning
costs to activities
  • From the work plan a financial outline can be
    drawn up by assigning costs to specific
    activities

26
3. Setting up a financial outline3.2 Different
kinds of costs
  • Two kinds of costs should be distinguished
  • i. Those for which the total cost derives
    directly from the product of a unit cost and a
    physical quantityExample If N computers are
    required for data entry at US X each, the total
    cost would be (US X) N
  • ii. Those for which the cost is either a flat
    rate or a non-linear function of the
    quantityExample of flat rate The honorarium of
    an expert Example of non-linear function
    printing costs, with fixed cost variable costs
    where unit costs may decrease with quantity

27
3. Setting up a financial outline3.3 Estimating
the costs
  • The assessments of costs (flat rate, linear on
    non-linear function) should be based on realistic
    price estimates obtained from previous
    experiences (previous census, pilot census) or by
    experts or providers of goods and services
  • Example estimates from printers for printing
    costs

28
3. Setting up a financial outline 3.3 Estimating
the costs
  • If expenditures for previous census are used as a
    base, they should be corrected for
  • - Increased costs (ex. salary increases,
    inflation)
  • - Decreased costs or efficiency gains (ex. new
    technology)
  • - Policy changes
  • - Population increase
  • Very important to estimate salary costs (largest
    component)

For estimating staff costs for enumeration and
data processing, see Ch.III sec.B and Ch.IV sec.C
of Handbook on Census Management for Population
and Housing Censuses on UNSD website
(http//unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/)
29
4. Preparation of the budget4.1 From the
financial outline to the budget
  • The budget can be set up directly from the
    financial outline by aggregating costs of
    specific activities according to the financial
    time schedule
  • The budget normally should be prepared in
    accordance with the regulations of the
    government, and the standard set forth by the
    authorities empowered to approve and appropriate
    the funds

30
4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
  • IMPORTANT The census budget MUST
  • 1) Be prepared well in advance
  • 2) Cover ALL known activities
  • 3) Allocate sufficient resources to each phase
  • ? Funds allocated and used effectively on
    planning and preparation will result in savings
    in all other phases, namely in enumeration and
    processing operations

31
4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
  • REMEMBER to allocate sufficient resources to the
    dissemination phase
  • ? The users will judge the census on the ability
    to deliver the data on time and in the way desired

32
4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
? In the 2000 census round, ECE countries spent
on average only 5 of their census budget for
publication, dissemination and documentation ? 23
countries (2/3 of reporting countries) spent less
than 3! Source UNECE Survey, 2004 ? Detailed
information on census costs in the 2000 census
round is available in the UNECE Publication on
the 2000 Round of Censuses (Part I, Ch. 4)
33
4. Preparation of the budget4.2 General issues
on the census budget
  • Other issues to consider
  • The census budget is highly cyclical (peaks
    during enumeration and processing)
  • The census budget should have built in some
    contingency allowance for unexpected expenses

34
4. Preparation of the budget4.3 Level of detail
  • The census budget should be detailed enough to
    permit easy examination and/or review and
    subsequent approval by officials concerned
  • The census budget is generally less detailed
    than the financial outline
  • ? Example all salaries and wages could be
    regrouped by year even if the staff requirements
    of the census vary largely over the census cycle

35
4. Preparation of the budget4.3 Level of detail
  • In large countries with socio-economic
    conditions varying from province to province, for
    some items a budget could be prepared for each
    province separately. They could be then pooled
    together to arrive at a country budget
  • Example If transport and communication
    facilities may not exist uniformly in all the
    provinces, separate estimates of travel and
    transport costs could be made for individual
    provinces

36
5. Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring
the work plan
  • Developing a good census work plan is important,
    but not sufficient!
  • ? The work plan must be MONITORED closely and on
    a regular basis, and feedback be delivered to all
    levels of management

37
Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the
work plan
  • The review should be conducted at least each
    quarter, but in the crucial period (field work) a
    continuous day-to-day review is recommended
  • Most important components to monitor are
  • Time for completing a task
  • Resource usage per task
  • Cost per task
  • Milestones

38
Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the
work plan
  • ? All deviations from planned schedule, costs and
    resources should be analysed and the impact
    assessed
  • ? Any delay occurring along any line of activity
    could have a chain reaction in the subsequent
    activity of the programme, affecting both work
    plan and budget

39
Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the
work plan
  • Ideally, the work plan should remain unchanged
  • However
  • in some cases it may be necessary to make
    changes to the plan and timetable
  • Example If it is estimated that a key task
    leading to a milestones cannot be completed in
    the planned time, then the task must be extended
    and the work plan modified

40
Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the
work plan
  • Whenever the work plan is modified
  • ? All possible implications of the changes on
    the other components of the work plan and on the
    budget should be carefully considered
  • ? All key personnel potentially affected by the
    changes should be promptly informed

41
6. Controlling expenditures6.1 Monitoring the
census budget
  • Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
  • ? This would allow to identify on time possible
    over-expenditures and shortfalls, and take
    appropriate measures
  • Two levels of monitoring
  • 1) Every month (or at least every quarter)
    monitor expenditures against funding for each
    project
  • 2) Every year Monitor total yearly expenditures
    against the estimates of expenditures for all
    years of the census cycle prepared in advance

42
6. Controlling expenditures6.2 Expenditure
control procedures
  • Given the large amount of expenditure involved in
    a census, some control procedures have to be
    introduced to ensure the efficient use of funds
  • Often a system of expenditure control procedures
    is designed and put in place by the funding
    agency
  • It is important to prepare complete and clear
    guidelines on financial policies and procedures

43
6. Controlling expenditures6.3 Control of flows
of funds to field offices
  • For a census office which usually operates
    through its field personnel at various
    administrative levels, an efficient cost and
    control system should be set up to ensure an easy
    control of the flows of funds from the central
    office to the field offices

44
6. Controlling expenditures6.3 Control of flows
of funds to field offices
  • Example
  • The central office issues fund allotments for a
    census administrative area, such as a provincial
    office
  • The province then sub-allots amounts to the
    different areas under its supervision for their
    operational expenses, broken down as required
    (for instance salaries and wages, travelling
    expenses, supplies and materials, etc.)
  • ? Field staff should be able to draw an amount,
    depending on the needs of the office, for the
    quarter but not beyond the cash ceiling allowance
    for that particular item of operating expenses

45
6. Controlling expenditures6.4 Keeping account
of expenditures
  • ? The budget staff of the central office should
    keep a regular account of fund disbursements,
    reflecting all types of expenditure incurred
  • ? The account should also show on a current basis
    the amount spent for a project together with the
    unspent balance
  • ? It is useful to adopt of a coding system
    whereby every type of expenditure is identified
    with a code number

46
6. Controlling expenditures6.5 Progress reports
on expenditure and output
  • A prerequisite for establishing expenditure
    control is the availability of information on
    expenditure incurred and the corresponding output
    of work
  • Progress reports should be prepared at regular
    intervals (for instance once a month)
  • Progress reports should be compatible with the
    form in which both the work plan and the
    financial outline have been prepared

47
6. Controlling expenditures6.5 Progress reports
on expenditure and output
  • Progress reports should include information on
  • 1) Expenditure incurred
  • 2) Corresponding output achieved
  • and if possible also on
  • 3) Outputs expected to be achieved in the
    subsequent month
  • 4) Outputs expected to be achieved in the current
    year as a whole
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