WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS

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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS
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The World Energy Assessment

• Established in 1998 by UNDP, DESA, WEC
• Will serve as input to CSD-9 preparatory process,
  CSD-9 and beyond (Rio 10)
• Two phases
• Editorial phase Collaborative effort to provide
  scientific and technical analysis for the report
  and discussions September 1998 - August 2000
• Consultative and Outreach phase Provide input to
  editorial phase and disseminate findings and
  encourage discussion and debate April 1999 -
  April 2001
• Funding Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the
  Energy Foundation and the United Nations
  Foundation

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World Primary Energy Use, 1998
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Present Energy Consumption
Primary Energy Consumption
Industrialized Countries
Developing Countries
Population 1.34 billion of fossil fuels
81 Energy 6,701 x 106 toe 5.0 toe/capita
Population 4.56 billion of fossil fuels
70 Energy 3,861 x 106 toe 0.85 toe/capita
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Issues related to the present energy system

• Energy approaches affect many important issues
• Social
• Economic
• Environmental and Health
• Security

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Investments in Energy Supply
Issue Mobilization of capital for energy supply
investments

• Investment in energy supply projected at 300-500
  billion per year for the next 20 years, depending
  on path chosen
• Less than 10 of total overall investments

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Oil Imports as Share of Export Earnings in
Various Developing Countries, 1985-97
Source World Bank, 1999
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Energy and Development

• 2 billion people have no access to electricity
  and an additional 2 billion people have access to
  unreliable electricity.
• 2 billion people cook using traditional fuels.

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Energy and Women

• Heavy burden on millions of women and children
• Millions are spending hours a day carrying fuel
  and water
• Millions are being exposed to high levels of
  indoor air pollution leading to premature deaths
• Example The World Health Organization estimates
  that air pollution indoor causes 2.73.0 million
  premature deaths a year, or 56 percent of global
  mortality.

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Environmental Degradation

• Energy activities contribute to indoor air
  pollution, urban air pollution, acidification and
  global warming
• 86 of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide
• Greenhouse gas emissions 78 of carbon dioxide,
  23 of methane
• A significant fraction of emissions of small
  particulate matter
• Significant fractions of many other environmental
  challenges

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Energy Resources

• Conventional oil and gas could last at least
  50-100 years.
• Total fossil fuel resources will last at least
  several hundreds of years
• There will be no resource-constraint driven
  transformation of the world energy system for a
  long time to come
• Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times
  current global energy use

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Oil imports in OECD,
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Towards a more Sustainable Future

• The linkages described lead to a demand for
  change of the present energy system development

• The magnitude of the change required is not small
  
• The challenge is to find a way forward that
  addresses all the issues simultaneously
• A paradigm shift is needed

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Sustainable Energy Energy that is produced and
used in ways that simultaneously support human
development over the long-term in all its social,
economic, and environmental dimensions
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Technical Options for a more Sustainable Future

• Improved Energy Efficiency - especially at the
  point of end-use in buildings, electric
  appliances, vehicles, and production processes.
• More Renewable Energy such as biomass, wind,
  solar, hydro, and geothermal
• Advanced Energy Technologies
• next generation fossil fuel technologies
• nuclear technologies, if the issues associated
  with nuclear can be resolved.

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Outlook for More Efficient Use of Energy

• Cost effective over the next 20 years to reduce
  primary energy consumed per unit of energy
  services
• OECD Countries 25-35
• Developing Countries 30- gt45
• Economies in transition gt40
• Greater gains in efficiency feasible with
  advanced energy technologies that offer multiple
  benefits

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Outlook for wind energy

• Rapid global growth, 30 per year
• 14 GW total installed capacity in 1999
• Rapid cost decline
• Baseload wind power possible
• Huge potential, remote from markets
• Multi-GW wind power plants storage HV
  transmission

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Potential Excess Electricity from Sugarcane in
Developing Countries
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Advanced Fossil Fuel Technology

• Syngas
• Technology for manufacturing H2 from abundant and
  secure energy sources (e.g. coal)
• H2 competitive as energy carrier need
  technologies that
• put high market value on H2 (e.g. fuel cells in
  transport)
• reduce H2 cost (e.g. H2 separation membrane
  reactors)
• H2 must be produced centrally to minimize cost of
  CO2 disposal
• Large, widely available, secure, and
  environmentally acceptable storage capacity for
  CO2 - geological storage options promising
  (depleted oil/NG fields, deep beds of unminable
  coal, deep saline aquifers)

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Power systems

• Optimal unit size declining, 30 of new capacity
  below 10MW
• Gas turbines, micro turbines, CHP, wind, solar,
  fuel cells, .
• Distributed generation, virtual utilities
• Value of generation close to consumption higher
  than central station
• Who looks after the system?

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Energy for Rural Development

• Provision of clean liquid or gaseous fuels
  for cooking and of electricity for lighting and
  other basic commodities at the household level
• Provision of liquid fuels and electricity for
  mechanization of agriculture
• Provision of electricity that is sufficiently
  low in cost that it could attract industrial
  activity to rural areas

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Solutions to Rural Energy Needs
Rural Eletrification
The centralized approach eletrification from
grids has reached 800 million people in 20 years.
Still 1,800 million without access.

• The decentralized approach
• Diesel engine generator sets
• Small-scale hydro Photovoltaics
• Wind Small-scale wind
• Small-scale biopower using producer gas

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Electricity and LPG from Corn Stalks in Jilin
Province, China

• Rough cost estimate, LPG from corn stalks
• Stand alone production 15/GJ
• Once-thru co-production 6/GJ
  (electricity sold for 5c/kWh)
• (Retail LPG price in rural China 8/GJ)
• LPG and electricity co-produced from available
  corn stalks (excluding those needed for soil
  conditioning and other non-energy uses) could
  meet current rural cooking fuel demand twice over
  and electric demand six times over.

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Policies for Sustainable Energy
An energy future compatible with sustainable
development will not happen by itself, thus
policy change is required, including

• Making markets work better, including mobilizing
  investments
• Focusing on the innovation chain
• Reforming the power sector
• Increasing capacity to support policy and
  institution building, and transfer of technology

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Making markets work better

• Setting the right framework conditions (including
  continued market reform and appropriate
  regulatory measures and policies) to encourage
  competitiveness in energy markets and protect
  public benefits
• Setting accurate price signals, including removal
  of subsidies to fossil fuel energy and some
  internalization of externalities (Subsidies of
  100 - 200 billion/year to conventional energy.)
• Supporting technological leadership and capacity
  building in developing countries
• Encouraging greater international cooperation

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The Innovation Chain

• Research and Development
• Demonstration projects
• Early deployment (cost buy-down)
• Widespread dissemination

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Experience curves for photovoltaics, windmills,
and gas turbines
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Policy options cost-buy-down and dissemination
Good ideas for policy implementation are gaining
ground around the world Renewable Portfolio
Standards (RPS) Subsidies with sunset clauses
Concessions Retail financing Clean Development
Mechanism
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Some electricity policy issues

• Grid access, IPPs
• Distributed generation
• Biomass power
• Wind energy concessions
• Small scale hydro
• End-use efficiency
• Net metering
• Competition and system responsibility
• Rural electrification

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Developing countries

• Capacity building
• Policy support and institution building
• Good governance
• Investment-friendly environments, socially and
  environmentally responsible
• Technological leap-frogging
• Consumer credits, micro-finance
• Education and training

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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS