World Climate Research Programme Plans and Priorities

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World Climate Research ProgrammePlans and
Priorities

• Ghassem R. AsrarDirector, WCRP

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Outline

• WCRP Intermediate Plan
• Joint Scientific Committee
• Joint Planning Staff
• International Project Offices
• Earth System Science Partnership
• WCRP Long-Term Plan
• World Climate Conference 3
• OceanObs09
• ICSU Visioning
• JSC Major Foci
• WCRP Open Science Conference

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Mission Objectives

• World Climate Research Programme supports
  climate-related decision making and adaptation
  and mitigation planning by developing science
  required to improve
• climate predictions and
• understanding of human influence on climate
• for use in an increasing range of practical
  applications of direct relevance, benefit and
  value to society (WCRP Strategic Framework
  2005-2015).

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Intermediate and Long-Term Plans
2008-2013 WCRP activities and core projects
implementing the Strategic Framework COPES
(Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the
Earth System) Post-2013 to achieve a more
effective interface with the users of climate
informational products, a new WCRP structure will
be needed
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Intermediate Plan Pre-2013

• Major scientific challenges at the interface of
  physical components of the climate system the
  oceans, the cryosphere, the water and energy
  cycle and the atmosphere. The complex
  interactions within and among them.
• Highlights activities that WCRP will implement to
  reach its goal of delivering science in support
  of societal needs
• Major thrusts Decadal Prediction, Sea-level
  rise, climate extremes and atmospheric chemistry
  climate interactions.
• Ongoing areas of investigation climate change
  projections, seasonal predictions, monsoons

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Intermediate Plan Pre-2013

• Activities in support of WCRP Integrating Themes
• Climate-quality datasets and analysis capacity
  for gathering, processing and sharing
  observational data for model evaluation and
  initialization. Observations
• New generation of climate system models seamless
  prediction, higher-spatial resolution, better
  representation of earth system processes. Models,
  Computers, Network
• Next generation of climate experts building
  capacity regionally and globally. Leadership
• Building partnership with relevant GEC programmes
  and GCOS, WWRP, GEO, World Bank, START.
  Institutions

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Joint Scientific Committee Members

• JSC focus on long-term strategy

JSC Antonio Busalacchi, USA (Chair) Dave J.
Griggs, Australia (Vice-Chair) Jochem Marotzke,
Germany (Officer) V. Ramaswamy, USA
(Officer) Carolina Vera, Argentina
(Officer) Guoxiong Wu, China (Officer) Kwabena
Anaman, Ghana (Member) Reza Ardakanian,
Germany/Iran (Member) Gregory Flato, Canada
(Member) Julia Slingo, UK (Member) Ilana Wainer,
Brazil (Member) Hervè Le Treut, France (Member)
New members (as of 1 January 2009) Sarah Gille,
USA Filipo Giorgi, Italy B. Goswami,
India Vladimir Kattsov, Russia Teruyuki Kakajima,
Japan Fredrick Semazzi, Uganda/USA
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Joint Planning Staff Members

• WCRP Secretariat is located in Geneva,
  Switzerland.

Ann Alturo Administrative Assistant
Ghassem Asrar Director
Anne Chautard Administrative Assistant
Valery Detemmerman Senior Scientific Officer
Margaret Lennon Senior Secretary
Vladimir Ryabinin Senior Scientific Officer
Catherine Michaut French Support Unit located in
Paris
Roberta Boscolo Communication/Scientific Officer
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International Programme Offices Members

• Projects focus on COPES implementation

CLIVAR Jim Hurrell, USA (Co-Chair) Martin
Visbeck, Germany (Co-Chair) Howard Cattle, UK
(ICPO Director) IPO located in UK
SPARC Ted Shepard, Canada (Co-Chair) Tom Peter,
Switzerland (Co-Chair) Norm McFarlane, Canada
(IPO Director) IPO located in Canada
CliC Konrad Steffen, USA (Chair) Daqing Yang, USA
(CIPO Director) IPO located in Norway
GEWEX Tom Ackerman, USA (Chair) Peter van
Oevelen, NL (IPO Director) IPO located in USA
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Earth System Science Partnership

• The Earth System Science Partnership is a
  partnership of four international global
  environmental change (GEC) research programme for
  the integrated study of the Earth System, the
  changes that are occurring to the system and the
  implications of these changes for global and
  regional sustainability.

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ESSP Scientific Committee

• The ESSP Scientific Committee is composed of
  International Council for Science (ICSU)
  appointed members (including the chair), GEC
  research programmes chairs and directors, an ICSU
  representative, the ESSP coordinator

ICSU Appointed Rik Leemans, NL (Chair) Jerry M.
Melillo, USA ICSU Deliang Chen, FR
(Director) DIVERSITAS Harold Mooney, USA
(Chair) Anne Larigauderie, FR (Director) IGBP Car
los Nobre, BR (Chair) Sybil Seitzinger, SWE
(Director)
IHDP Oran Young, USA (Chair) Vacant
(Director) WCRP Antonio Busalacchi, USA
(Chair) Ghassem Asrar, SWI (Director) ESSP Martin
Rice, FR (Coordinator)
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ESSP Projects

• .. and representatives of each joint project,
  integrated regional study and START.

Global Carbon Project (GCP) Corinne Le Quere, UK
(Co-Chair) Philippe Ciais, FR (Co-Chair) Anand
Patwardhan, INDIA (Co-Chair) Josep Canadel, AUS
(Director) GEC and Food System (GECAFS) Diana
Liverman, USA (Chair) John Ingram, UK
(Director) Global Water System Project
(GWSP) Charles Vorosmarty, UK (Co-Chair) Janos
Bogardi, GER (Director) GEC and Human Health
(GECHH) Ulisses Confalonieri, BR (Co-Chair) Mark
Rosenberg, CAN (Co-Chair)
Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study
(MAIRS) Congbin Fu, CHINA (Chair) Alikun, CHINA
(Director) Climate Food, Agriculture and Food
Security (CCAFS) Thomas Rosswall, FR
(Chair) Bruce Campbell, DEN (Director)
START Gordon McBean, CAN (Co-Chair) Hassan
Virji, USA (Director)
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WCRP Partnerships

• Build on the existing partnerships
• SOLAS
• WGCM AIMES
• SPARC IGAC Atmospheric Chemistry Climate
• CLIVAR PAGES
• CLIVAR IMBER
• GEWEX iLEAPS

Extend and strengthen them.
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http//www.gewex.org/2009gewex_ileaps_conf.html
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Land in the Climate System
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Land in the Climate System
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GEWEX Products
NEW! IMPROVED! Version 2.1 of Monthly GEWEX
Global Precipitation Climatology (see Huffman et
al., 2009 GRL accepted)
Main changes over land due to improved gauge
analysis by German Weather Service (GPCC) group
giving improved analysis over orography and
slight increase in mean values
V2.1-V2
Figures (a) Climatology for GPCP Version 2.1 in
mm/d, and (b) (Version 2.1 Version 2)
difference averaged over 1979-2007 in mm/d.
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Integrated Observations and Modelling
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Outline

• WCRP Intermediate Plan
• Joint Scientific Committee
• Joint Planning Staff
• International Project Offices
• Earth System Science Partnership
• WCRP Long-Term Plan
• World Climate Conference 3
• OceanObs09
• ICSU Visioning
• JSC Major Foci
• WCRP Open Science Conference

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Future Directions Post-2013

• Long-Term Strategy New WCRP themes/structure to
  promote/facilitate
• Research on frontiers of climate/Earth system
• The need for use of climate information,
  products services

• Three or four Themes/Panels?
• Regional climate prediction as a separate
  theme or fitted better within a
  processes/modelling theme or an
  applications/impacts theme?
• Whats the role, nature, duration of
  cross-cutting activities?
• How to ensure societal needs are met and there
  is effective engagement with stakeholders?
• How to ensure continued engagement of climate
  research community, i.e. scientists, sponsors,
  project offices, etc., in any new theme/structure?

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Future Directions

• Looking to the future
• The vision post 2013 was strongly influenced by
  the evolution of climate science, research, and
  education in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000 across the
  atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryopshere.
• Looking to the future, a major envisioned
  challenge and opportunity at the intersection of
  WCRPIGBP is the basic and applied research in
  support of the
• Prediction of the Earth System.
• Propose to IGBP SC the formation of a WCRP/IGBP
  task team to develop a white paper discussing a
  strategy for predictive Earth system modeling.

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Future Functions

• WCRP should maintain the rigor of its science and
  remained focused on core physical science,
  addressing new science areas in partnerships
  with others - dont drop key issues but maintain
  freedom to operate
• The function of WCRP should be to provide the
  science that underpins understanding and
  predicting of climate leading to societal
  benefits. Communication and capacity building
  are also key issue, ref. COPES document
• An emerging demand is a need to move to regional
  scales whilst from a science perspective
  recognize the importance of getting the global
  scales right. WCRP needs to have the capability
  to enable climate prediction from seasonal to
  century and global to local scales.

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Future Structure

• Accept what is now called Core Project(s) to
  describe the essential elements of the climate
  system, and structure WCRP activities along the
  Earth/climate system themes, e.g.
  ocean-atmosphere, land-atmosphere,
  troposphere-stratosphere, etc.
• Rebuild the panel/committee structure, as
  necessary with an eye on the matrix structure
  (methodologies, interactions).
• Crosscuts are essential to address the important
  science issues they may have limited lifetime.

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WCC-3 Conference Statement

• Great recognition of scientific progress made
  through WCRP and its associated activities
• Call for major strengthening of observations and
  research
• Support the development
• of the Global Framework
• for Climate Services

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WCC3 Expert Segment

• Called for major strengthening of the essential
  elements of a global framework for climate
  services
• The Global Climate Observing System and all its
  components and associated activities and
  provision of free and unrestricted exchange and
  access to climate data
• The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned
  by adequate computing resources and increased
  interaction with other global climate relevant
  research initiatives.
• Climate services information systems taking
  advantage of enhanced existing national and
  international climate service arrangements in the
  delivery of products, including sector-oriented
  information to support adaptation activities
• Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on
  building linkages and integrating information, at
  all levels, between the providers and users of
  climate services and
• Efficient and enduring capacity building through
  education, training, and strengthened outreach
  and communication.

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WCC3 High-Level Segment

• Decided to establish a Global Framework for
  Climate Services
• WMO will take the lead in putting together a
  task-force of high-level independent advisors
• The task-force will make recommendations on the
  elements of the Framework and the steps for its
  development and implementation
• WMO congress in 2011 will review the
  recommendations with a view to adopt the proposed
  plans

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Conference Statement
VISION Provision of routine and sustained
global information on the marine environment
sufficient to meet societys needs for
describing, understanding and forecasting marine
variability (.), weather, seasonal to decadal
climate variability, climate change, sustainable
management of living marine resources, and
assessment of longer term trends.
http//www.oceanobs09.net
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ICSU 29th General Assembly (Maputo, October 2008)
Earth System Visioning

• to note that Committee on Scientific Planning
  Review (CSPR) is planning to organize a
  consultation, including a high-level meeting,
  with relevant partners to outline options for an
  overall framework for global environmental change
  research and its policy relevance, once the
  reviews of IGBP and WCRP are completed.

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Three Step Process
Goal to engage the scientific community to
explore options and to propose implementation
steps for a holistic strategy on the Earth system
research. This strategy will both encourage
scientific innovation and address policy needs
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Criteria for selection

• Scientific importance. Does the question address
  a cutting-edge research challenge that could
  plausibly be addressed in the next decade that,
  if answered, can significantly advance our
  understanding of Global Change?
• Policy relevance. Will the answer to the
  question help to achieve pressing global needs,
  including promoting sustainability, reducing
  poverty, and assisting the most vulnerable in
  coping with Global Change?
• Broad support. Does the question have broad
  support from the research and funding community
  (even those not directly involved in answering
  the question)?
• Global coordination. Is a coordinated
  international or global approach involving
  multiple researchers and disciplines needed to
  answer the question?
• Leverage. Does the answer to the question
  involve a scientific or technical breakthrough,
  or would it create a transferable model, that
  would help to address multiple problems or
  challenges related to Global Change Science?

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DRAFT Grand Challenges in Global
SustainabilityA Systems Approach to Research
Priorities for the Decade

• Challenge 1 Substantially improve the utility
  and reduce the uncertainty associated with
  regional forecasts of future environmental
  conditions and their consequences for people.
• Challenge 2 Develop the observation systems
  needed to manage global environmental change.
• Challenge 3 Determine how to anticipate, avoid
  and cope with dangerous global environmental
  change.
• Challenge 4 Develop institutional and
  governance arrangements that can ensure global
  sustainability.
• Challenge 5 Develop and evaluate innovative
  responses to achieve global sustainability.

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Common Threads
Earth System Visioning

• Broader base of expertise
• interdisciplinarity ? transdisciplinarity
• broader expertise in the social sciences (beyond
  geography and economics-gt sociology/ psychology,
  ethics)
• need for expertise in engineering/technology
• need for communication experts
• Enthusiasm of the community

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Deliberation

• World Climate Conference-3, OceanObs09 and Earth
  System Visioning acknowedge WCRP past
  contribution and identify future challenges and
  opportunities.
• Need for more flexibility/agility to respond to
  expanding users needs, this include information
• At regional scale
• For key sectors of global economy
• For adaptation, mitigation and risk management

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Deliberation

• JSC focus on four major enabling themes to
  underpin scientific exploration and climate
  information delivery and applications
• Observation and Analysis
• Process understanding
• Model development, projections and prediction
• Climate Information and Application
• Discussions and plans are underway for transition
  from now to mid- next decade

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2011 WCRP Open Science ConferenceClimate
Research in Service to Society

• Conference Objective
• The aim of WCRP is to facilitate analysis and
  prediction of Earths climate system variability
  and change for use in an increasing range of
  practical applications of direct relevance,
  benefit and value to society.
• The Open Science Conference will thus assemble
  the scientific community working to advance our
  ability to understand and predict variability and
  change of the Earths climate system on all time
  and space scales.
• Through this synthesis of research findings and
  knowledge, WCRP will better inform assessments
  and prediction science practitioners on the state
  of climate science research, describe the
  challenges of the future, and chart pathways
  forward for WCRP.

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2011 WCRP Open Science ConferenceClimate
Research in Service to Society

• Monday The Climate System Components and Their
  Interactions
• Tuesday Observation and Analysis of the Climate
  System
• Wednesday Improving Predictive Capabilities
• Thursday Environmental Assessments
• Friday (early a.m.) Regional Climate
• Friday (late a.m.) Challenges and the Future

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Summary

• WCRP and sister International Global Change
  Research Programmes will continue to coordinate
  and integrate their scientific activities
• The emerging science questions/priorities are
  more complex and transdisciplinary in nature,
  thus requiring greater attention to the
  governance of the Programme(s)
• The challenge is to maintain the broad-base of
  research for responding to the emerging
  scientific challenges/opportunites, and to
  develop the necessary integrating themes for
  greater uptake of the scientific results in
  response to the fast emerging needs by decision
  makers