Cooperation with other research efforts

1
Global Water System Project Understanding the
Implications of Human Manipulation of the Global
Water Cycle
Dennis P. Lettenmaier1, Charles J. Vorosmarty2,
and Robert Naiman3 1University of Washington,
Land Surface Hydrology Research Group, Seattle,
WA 98195, United States 2University of New
Hampshire, Water Systems Analysis Group, Durham,
NH 03824, United States 3University of
Washington, Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences,
Seattle, WA 98195, United States
ABSTRACT The water cycle figures prominently in
the study of global change. In addition to
greenhouse warming and concerns about an
accelerated hydrologic cycle, several other
anthropogenic factors interact with the water
system to produce potentially global-scale
effects. Prominent among these are widespread
land cover change, urbanization, reservoir
construction, irrigated agriculture, destruction
of aquatic habitat, and pollution. A rich history
of research at the local scale demonstrates the
clear impact of such factors on the environment.
Evidence now shows that humans are rapidly
embedding themselves in the basic character of
the water cycle over much broader domains. The
collective significance of such a transformation
of a basic element of the Earth system remains
fundamentally unknown. This presentation
summarizes a new project launched as part of the
Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) of the
Global Environmental Change Programs (Diversitas,
IGBP, IHDP, WCRP) that will study these water
cycle changes. The aim of the GWSP is to catalyze
our understanding of the dynamics of water in the
Earth system, the unique role that humans play in
the hydrologic cycle and reciprocal interactions
between the biogeophysical and human components
of the coupled system. A major emphasis of GWSP
is on interactions, feedbacks, and thresholds,
necessitating a balanced consideration of all
factors at play physical, chemical, biological,
and societal. The GWSP is the product of
contributions made by a broad cross-section of
the water science and assessment community, with
more than 150 contributors to a series of
planning meetings, science scoping documents, and
a recent Open Science Conference (October 2003
Portsmouth, NH). This poster reviews the
scientific rationale for the initiative, presents
the Projects motivating science questions, and
describes the emerging agenda for study.
GWSP Overview
The goal of the GWSP is to address the
following overarching scientific question How
are human actions changing the global water
system and what are the environmental and
socio-economic feedbacks arising from the
anthropogenic changes in the global water
system?
Theme 1 Magnitudes and Mechanisms of
Change What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic
and environmental changes in the global water
system and what are the key mechanisms by which
they are induced? Theme 2 Linkages and
Feedbacks What are the main linkages and
feedbacks within the earth system arising from
changes in the global water system? Theme 3
Resilience and Adaptation How resilient and
adaptable is the global water system to change,
and what are sustainable water management
strategies?
Broad Spectrum of Water-Related Global Change
Theme 1 Magnitudes and Mechanisms of Change

The Living Planet Index for Three Ecosystems
1970-99

• Human Impacts on Hydrology
• Humans are Key Agents of Direct Hydrologic Change
• Pandemic Distortion of Hydrographs
• Impoundment
• Consumptive Use
• Flow Diversion
• Land Cover Impacts (direct weather-mediated)

Source World Conservation Monitoring Center
(UNEP-wCMC) and World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
Theme 3 Resilience and Adaptation

• Both Natural Human Components
• Change to One Part of the GWS Reverberates
  Throughout
• Clear Need for Interdisciplinary Approach
• Clear Need for Partners

Aim Understand Implications for Future and
Inform Policy
An Adaptation Strategy to Cope with
Scarcity? Virtual Water flow in 2000 (cereals
only)
Example
78.5
USSR
Middle East
Western Europe
33.5
North America
East South East Asia
38.8
57.5
North West Africa
Caribbean
South Asia
Central America
West Africa
36.4
South America
46.2
Oceania
Importer based, over 5 km3/y

km3/y
(Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)
(Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO)
Theme 2 Linkages and Feedbacks

• Changes in land use can dramatically alter
  weather patterns.
• Models of cloud convection over the central USA
  show that storms can develop over current
  agricultural landscapes that would not have
  occurred over the original prairie land

GWSP Implementation
Regional Change to Global-Scale Implications

• Combined Annual Discharge of the 6 Largest
  Eurasian Arctic Rivers
• 7 increase over period of record

The GWSP is fostering research addressing issues
identified in the three themes above through the
following mechanisms

• Cooperation with other research efforts
• The GWSP will actively seek cooperation with
  programs and organizations whose interests
  overlap with those of the GWSP.
• The types of organizations will include
  national programs on water research,
  international water-related research programs
  sponsored by DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP, and WCRP,
  other international research programs related to
  water problems, organizations sponsoring
  international assessments, and policy studies of
  global water issues.
• Cross-cutting research activities
• building the GWSP information base
• the GWS-discourse integrating the natural
  science and social science approaches to the
  global water system
• developing world water models and scenarios

• Synthesis, capacity building and education
• cooperation with START and other programs in
  order to reach a larger scientific community and
  society-at-large
• synthesis of information in form of assessment
  reports and other synthesizing documents and
  materials
• capacity building activities such as training
  and research workshops for young scientists,
  development of new university curricula,
  production of innovative we-based teaching
  packages.
• Dialogue with stakeholders and policy makers
• workshops and meetings
• joint White Papers on pressing water issues
  co-written with stakeholders
• collaboration with existing multi-stakeholder
  networks
• representation of stakeholder interests on the
  GWSP steering committee

Peterson et al. (2002) Science

• Possible effects to global climate via slow-down
  of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation
  that drives the thermohaline circulation
  (conveyor belt)

The information in this poster was assembled by
Ms. Jennifer Adam, Graduate Research Assistant,
Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, University of Washington
Rahmstorf (2001) Spek. der Wiss.
Pielke et al., (2001) Ecol. Appl. 7