Are East Asian countries politically stable

1
Are East Asian countries politically stable?

• TAN Ern Ser

2
Framework

• What constitutes East Asia? N-E Asia, S-E Asia.
  
• Complexity, heterogeneous race, class, religion,
  region, ideology.
• Interests, visions, strategies (violence,
  secession, autonomy, reform)
• State and government/regime strong/weak,
  consensus legitimacy
• Civil society strong/weak
• External factors recession, security, health.

3
What is political stability?

• Peaceful, harmonious
• Differences and conflict
• Regime change
• Breakdown of key institutions
• Demise of nation

4
Recent developments

• China Tibet, Taiwan, natural disasters,
  Islamists.
• Taiwan pro-China or pro-independence.
• South Korea relationship with US and with North
  Korea.
• Philippines Arroyo government, Southern
  Philippines.
• Indonesia religious conflict.
• Malaysia post-March general election.
• Thailand Southern Thailand, urban-rural
  conflict.
• Singapore financial crisis.

5

• Indicators from
• the recent Asian Barometer Survey 2006-7

6
Perceived current and future economic condition
(1bad, 5good)
7
Perceived current political condition(5bad,
1good)
8
Trust in Institutions (1lo, 4hi)
9
Perception of Democracy as practiced
10
Satisfaction with the way democracy works (1lo,
4hi)
11
Evaluation of extent of democracy free and fair
election? (1free fair, 4not so)
12
Evaluation of extent of democracy accountability
(1lo, 4hi)
13
Evaluation of extent of democracy in Singapore
freedom of speech (1hi, 4lo)
14
Evaluation of extent of democracy freedom of
association (1hi, 4lo)
15
Evaluation of extent of democracy responsiveness
of government (1hi, 4lo)
16
Perceived extent of corruption in government
(1hi degree of corruption, 5lo)
17
Perceived equality of treatment by the government
(1agree , 4disagree)
18
Attitudinal items
19
Open quarrels among politicians are harmful to
society (1agree, 4disagree)
20
People should always support the government,
(1agree, 4disagree)
21
Relationship between government and people should
be like that between parents and children
(1agree, 4disagree)
22
Conflict among political groups is NOT a bad
thing (1agree, 4disagree)
23
Leave complicated political issues to the future
(1agree, 4disagree)
24
Prefer little-by-little political reform
(1agree, 4disagree)
25
Conclusion

• Thailand unstable, Malaysia intermediate,
  Singapore stable.
• Limitations Broad stroke and macro-level. Need
  to look at social divisions. Need to use
  multivariate model.
• Some hypotheses
• Democracy does not lead to stability.
• Preference for avoidance of conflict does not
  necessarily lead to stability.
• Good governance lead to stability.