Presented by: Dr. Boyan Kavalov

1
Production potential of liquid bio-fuels in EU
candidate countries
Presented by Dr. Boyan Kavalov
2
Why has been initiated the project ?
Creating an EU market for bio-fuels will also
offer an opportunity for the Candidate Countries.
On average they have more agricultural land and
less diesel and gasoline consumption per capita
than present EU Member States. Growing crops for
bio-fuels will facilitate the absorption of the
agricultural sector of the new Member States in
the Common Agricultural Policy. COM (2001)
547
3
Intended shares sold bio-fuels / sold fossil
fuels in EU
COM (2001) 547, 2001/0265 (COD)
4
Bio-fuels in CC-13 - Preliminary assumptions

• Strong points
• Resource availability at lower than in
• EU-15 cost (land and labour)
• Agricultural traditions and experience
• Weak points - Lack of enough
• Financial resources
• Legal and taxation framework stability
• Technical procurement of production

5
Overall goal of the project
Assessment of the techno-economic potential
(material, land, labour, financial and
management) of EU-13 candidate countries (CC-13)
for large-scale agriculture-based production of
liquid bio-fuels (bio-ethanol and bio-diesel) for
application in road transport
6
Tasks of the project

• Quantitative and qualitative analysis of
• current production of bio-fuels in CC-13.
• Identification of the strong and weak
• points concerning the production of bio-
• fuels in CC-13.
• Assessment of the feasible quantitative and
• qualitative potential for increasing the bio-
• fuel production in CC-13 under different
• pre-assumptions.

7
Scope of the survey

• Geographical CC-13 - Bulgaria (BG),
• Cyprus (CY), Czech Republic (CZ),
• Estonia (EE), Hungary (HU), Latvia (LV),
• Lithuania (LT), Malta (MT), Poland (PL),
• Romania (RO), Slovak Republic (SK),
• Slovenia (SL) and Turkey (TK)
• Temporal 2005-2010, year-by-year

8
Project structure, partners schedule

• Sponsored and leaded by IPTS/JRC, with
  partnership of
• Atlantis Research (Greece)
• Kvistgaard Consult (Denmark)
• Centre for Prospective Studies (Bulgaria)
• Progress Business Foundation (Poland)
• Irish Productivity Center (Ireland)
• Project time-table March / December 2002

9
Quantitative calculating approaches

• 1. Energy content based
• Bio-ethanol 21.2 MJ/l, density 0.798 kg/l
• Bio-diesel 32.8 MJ/l, density 0.88 kg/l
• Gasoline 31.2 MJ/l, density 0.745 kg/l
• Fossil diesel 35.7 MJ/l, density 0.8375 kg/l
• 2. Volumetric based (litres)
• Low-concentration bio-fuel blends
• 1 litre bio-fuel replaces 1 litre fossil fuel

10
Breakdown of feedstock by countries
11
Absolute bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production
potential of CC
12
Bio-ethanol (BE) / Fossil Gasoline (FG)
proportions - Energy Content
13
Bio-ethanol (BE) / Fossil Gasoline (FG)
proportions - Liters
14
Bio-ethanol - key hindrances

• Wheat
• Strong competition with the food (local
• and world) markets
• Sugar-beet
• Two-years overall growing period
• Not competitive to the cheaper import of
• sugar and molasse from sugar cane

15
Bio-diesel (BD) / Fossil Diesel (FD)
proportions - Energy Content
16
Bio-diesel (BD) / Fossil Diesel (FD)
proportions - Liters
17
Bio-diesel - key hindrances

• Rape-seed
• Long crop rotation period (5 to 8 years)
• Southern climates generally are not
• suitable to grow rape-seed
• Sun-flower
• Northern and Central European climates
• are not suitable to grow sun-flower
• Lower bio-diesel yield per ha as
• compared to rape-seed

18
Bio-fuels / fossil fuel proportions including
Turkey - Energy Content
19
Bio-fuels / fossil fuel proportions including
Turkey - Liters
20
Key hindrances for expanding bio-fuel production
in CC

• In most cases, land is standing idle because
• of poor quality of soil, but not due to
• economic reasons (except RO and BG)
• Food shortage (CY, MT, SL and TK) - no
• bio-fuel potential
• Unfavourable climate conditions for large-
• scale agriculture production (EE, LT, LV)
• Already explored production potential (CZ)

21
Agriculture-based bio-fuel production potential
in CC within enlarged EU - Key conclusions

• 1. Diversity of fuel supply for road transport
• (2-6 market share) Poor contribution
• Voluntary feasible only in some CC
• 2. Improving environmental performance of
• road transport (1-2 market share) Yes
• 3. Relatively low cost of reaching (2)

22
Assessment of the bio-fuel production potential
in CC-13 - Key pre-condition
Consensus approach - taking into account
interests of all parties concerned
23
Work to be done under the study

• Cost assessment of the feasible production
• potential of bio-fuels in CC-13
• Quantitative analysis of the required bio-fuel
• production within an enlarged EU, basis the
• EC intended shares of bio-fuels (normative,
• top-down approach)
• Quantification of the resources (land, labour,
• respectively - the cost function) needed to
• reach the intended by the EC bio-fuel shares

24
Total Cost (TC) relation
25
Thank you for your attention !
Dr. Boyan Kavalov Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies (IPTS) Edificio EXPO, c.
Inca Garcilaso, s/n, 41092 Seville / SPAIN Tel.
34 95 448 83 04 Fax [phone] E-mail
Boyan.Kavalov_at_jrc.es