Presentation to the Senate Ways

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Statistics for the Statehouse
Outcomes of Prevention Programs that Matter f
or Policy-Level Decisions Conference on In
tervening Early Progress and Opportunities in C
hild Service Settings Washington D.C. September
19, 2007
Steve Aos Associate Director Washington State I
nstitute for Public Policy Phone [phone]
E-mail saos_at_wsipp.wa.gov Institute
Publications www.wsipp.wa.gov
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Washington State Institute For Public Policy
Created by the 1983 Washington Legislature
Mission carry out nonpartisan research on
projects assigned by the legislature or the
Institutes Board of Directors

State Capitol
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Making Research Results Meaningful for
State and Local Policy Makers

• Money Matters
• Two Aisles, One Theme ROI on taxpayer's
  dollar
  
• Balanced budget requirement force choices C/B

• The Messenger Matters
• The Honest Broker think Consumer Reports
• The Importance of Comparative Costs and Benefits
  
  
• Dont Oversell the Options SP500 not Microsoft
  
  

• Outcomes that Matter to Policy Makers
• Individual program effect sizes or ROIs dont
  matter (much)
  
• Portfolio level outcomes matter a lot, for
  example
  
• Avoiding the next prison while lowering statewide
  crime rates
  
• Raising statewide K12 test scores, high school
  grad. rates
  
• Lowering statewide health care costs, increasing
  coverage
  
• These higher-level outcomes imply sig. research
  demands
  

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What Can Evidence-Based Early Childhood
Education (Pre-School) Achieve?
In 2004, we conducted a systematic review of
every rigorous evaluation in the United States
since 1965
Number of Studies
Outcome for LOW INCOME 3 4 year olds
Average Result
On-time graduation increases from 70 to 76
High School Graduation
10
Percent repeating a grade drops from 13 to 8.
K-12 Grade Repetition
24
Percent using special ed drops from 12 to 8
K-12 Special Education
23
Pct. with conviction by age 30 drops from 24 to
17
Crime
8
Public Assistance
No significant effect
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Teen Births (under 18)
4
No significant effect
Pct. with a substantiated case drops from 12 to
7
Child Abuse and Neglect
1
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The Economic Question Is Early Childhood
Education for Low-Income 3 and 4 Year Olds a
Good Investment?(2005 dollars, life-cycle
present value)
Benefits Per Youth Enrolled
Main Source of Benefits
Increased high school graduation
9,966
Increased earnings
Reduced K12 grade repetition
206
Lower K12 Costs
Reduced K12 special education
135
Lower K12 Costs
Reduced crime
5,068
Lower CJS Victim
Reduced child abuse neglect
1,919
Lower CWS Victim
Reduced alcohol and drug abuse
278
Increased earnings
Offset child care costs
1,897
Lower CC Costs
7,709
Cost Per Youth
Benefits Per Dollar of Cost
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• Our Consumer Reports List for reducing crime
• What Works?
• What Doesnt?
• What Are the Benefits Costs?

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Results for Three Example Portfolios of
Evidence-Based Options
30,000
CFC prison forecast and WSIPP extension
28,000
Forecast with Current Level Portfolio
Forecast with Moderate Implementation Portfolio
Forecast with Aggressive Implementation Portfolio
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
Existing Prison Supply
Existing Prison Supply
Rented Jail Beds
Rented Jail Beds
16,000
41 million
63 million
85 million
1.1 billion
1.7 billion
2.4 billion
2.45
2.55
2.60
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