The Resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict: Possible Options for Compromise Town Hall Meetings

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The Resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
Possible Options for CompromiseTown Hall
Meetings
Supported by the British Embassy, Yerevan,
Republic of Armenia Conducted by the
International Center for Human Development
(www.ichd.org)
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Scheme of the Discussions
NK conflict resolution options
Screen 2
Screen1
TABLE 2
TABLE 1
Floor Managers
TABLE 3
Area Facilitators
Issue Experts
Lead Facilitator
TABLE 5
TABLE 4
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Scenarios
NK conflict resolution options

• Scenario I Status Quo
• Scenario II NKR as part of Azerbaijan
• Scenario III NKR independent or a part of
  Armenia
• Scenario IV The Issue of Status to be Discussed
  in Future
• Scenario V Procrastinated Resolution Certain
  Warrants

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Scenario I Status Quo
NK conflict resolution options

• Situation since 1994 no war, no peace
  status quo
• active process of state building in the Republic
  on Nagorny Karabakh,
• a security zone under the supervision of Armenian
  military forces,
• refugees,
• belligerent statements in Azerbaijan,
  procrastinated negotiations, etc.
• Possible future developments
• NKR continues providing for the security of its
  territories and people. Military service both in
  Armenia and Karabakh still remains compulsory.
• NK adjacent territories continue to remain under
  the Armenian supervision.
• The NKR is not recognized by the international
  community.
• NKR cannot get any assistance from the
  international community or international
  organizations.
• Armenian remains the state language of NKR, and
  the Armenian Dram continues to be the state
  currency.
• NK Armenians get a RA passport for traveling
  abroad.
• The governments of RA and NKR recognize each
  others documents.
• Azerbaijan continues its efforts to regain
  dominance over NK and the adjacent territories
• With the time the threat of war continues to
  increase.
• The roads remain closed. Armenia and NK are not
  able to fully utilize their economic potential.

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Scenario II NKR as part of Azerbaijan
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• The advocates of the scenario Karabakh as part
  of Azerbaijan claim that the scenario does not
  imply the defeat of the Armenian side, but
  suggests a real compromise, since it essentially
  changes the status and the range of rights of the
  Karabakh population in comparison with what there
  was before the war, i.e. during the soviet years.
  
• Major points in this scenario
• NK becomes a part of Azerbaijan.
• The territories outside the NKR borders, which
  are currently under the supervision of the
  Armenian forces, are returned.
• There is open and free communication with the
  neighboring Armenia, as well as with Nakhijevan
  through NK and Armenia.
• NK gets the possibly highest status of autonomy.
• The possibility of any repetition of the policy
  of repressions, pressure and deportation of
  Armenians in the soviet times is ruled out.
• Armenians get the strongest warrants of ethnic
  security and human rights.
• NK schools get the right to freely teach Armenian
  alongside with the Azeri and other foreign
  languages.
• Individual laws regulate the mechanisms for the
  participation of the Armenians in the process of
  state governance. The legislation regarding the
  army and police is revised in accordance to the
  interests of the Armenian community.
• The agreement package is secured with economic
  incentives, agreements are signed on major
  investment projects, the integration processes
  get more active, and the communication is
  developed. In the result, NK becomes a rapidly
  developing entity, partially due to the Azeri oil
  factor as well, whereas Armenia and Azerbaijan
  become countries enjoying an economic boom.

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Scenario III NKR independent or a part of
Armenia
NK conflict resolution options

• Major points of this scenario
• Azerbaijan accepts that the people of Nagorny
  Karabakh have the right to determine whether they
  want to be independent or unite with Armenia
  through the use of democratic mechanisms
• The NK adjacent territories are returned to
  Azerbaijan
• Overland communication is provided between
  Armenia and NK
• The NK adjacent territories become a regular part
  of Azerbaijan with adequate economic, military,
  political and social institutes
• NK has its army, which together with the Armenian
  army is responsible for its security
• Azerbaijan gets a sovereign corridor through
  Armenia to establish normal communication with
  Nakhijevan.
• This scenario implies several agreements
  regarding the transition phase as well, such as
  legislative guarantees, possible deployment of
  peace keepers, etc.

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Scenario IV The Issue of Status to be Discussed
in Future
NK conflict resolution options

• Major points
• Azerbaijan accepts the right of
  self-determination of the NK people. Their
  decision to create an independent state or join
  Armenia in the future is accepted and ensured by
  Azerbaijan and the international community.
• The issue of land connection between NK and
  Armenia is resolved.
• All the territories outside the NK borders, which
  are currently under the Armenian supervision, are
  returned to Azerbaijan.
• Refugees return to their homes (among which
  Stepanakert, Shushi, etc.). Steps are undertaken
  to ensure the peaceful co-existence of the two
  communities.
• NK and the adjacent territories are totally
  demilitarized.
• The agreement package includes clauses on the
  mechanisms ensuring Azerbaijans connection with
  Nakhijevan through the territory of Armenia.
• International peace keepers are immediately
  deployed in the region.
• The Armenian-Azeri and Armenian-Turkish borders
  are open.
• Like in previous times, all the routes between
  the two countries are exploited again. Both
  nations again live peacefully next to each other.
• The possibility of restarting the war is ruled
  out according to the agreement signed by the two
  parties.

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Scenario V Procrastinated Resolution Certain
Warrants
NK conflict resolution options

• In some aspects this scenario repeats the
  previous one, though given several concrete
  mechanisms of warrants, it has a different logic.
  The noteworthy difference with the previous one
  is the fact that the NK adjacent territories are
  returned to Azerbaijan as a trade-off for the
  future recognition of the decision of the NK
  people, but some regions remain under the
  Armenian control as a guarantee for the proper
  implementation of the agreement.
• Major points
• Azerbaijan accepts the right of the NK people to
  self-determination. The decision of the NK people
  to create an independent state or join Armenia in
  the future is accepted and ensured by Azerbaijan
  and the international community.
• The political situation in NK is formalized due
  to which it gets international assistance.
• The issue of land communication between NK and
  Armenia is resolved through the wide and secure
  corridor of Lachin.
• Some territories outside the NK borders and under
  the supervision of Armenian forces are returned
  to Azerbaijan following certain logic, whereas
  Kelbajar and Lachin remain under Armenian control
  until the end of the NK self-determination
  process.
• Refugees return to their homes (among which
  Stepanakert, Shushi, etc.). Certain steps are
  undertaken for providing a peaceful co-existence
  of the two communities.
• International peace keepers are immediately
  deployed in the region.
• NK and adjacent regions are immediately
  demilitarized.
• The Armenian-Azeri and Armenian-Turkish borders
  are open.
• The possibility of restarting the war is ruled
  out according to the agreement signed by the two
  parties.

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Participant Profile number
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429 participants in 4 towns
5 discussion tables x 8 rounds
18 support staff
Facilitators, Note takers, Floor Managers
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Participant Profile occupation
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Participant Profile gender
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Information flow
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- 1809 messages sent to the central computer -
1550 messages sent to screens
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Ijevan
February 3, 2006
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Selected Photos
Ijevan Business Center, February 3, 2006
Project Coordinator explaining the ground rules
of the discussion
Participants learning of the proposed scenarios
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Selected Photos
Ijevan Business Center, February 3, 2006
Discussions have started
The issue is of high importance for everyone
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Selected Photos
Ijevan Business Center, February 3, 2006
Facilitators explaining the peculiarities of a
concrete scenario
Voting for a preference among the proposed
scenarios
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Selected Photos
Ijevan Business Center, February 3, 2006
The central computer processes the incoming
messages and sends them to the screens
Two central screens display the messages from
all the 5 tables
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Scenarios final votes
Ijevan Business Center, February 3, 2006
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Gavar
February 17, 2006
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Selected Photos
Gavar, Community House, February 17, 2006
Everything seems to be ready to start the
discussions
Participants learning of the proposed scenarios
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Selected Photos
Gavar, Community House, February 17, 2006
Participants are interested in what their peers
have to say on the issue
Ideas and comments from each table soon appear
on the screens, thus inciting new threads of
discussion
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Selected Photos
Gavar, Community House, February 17, 2006
The issue touches all men, women, young, old,
military, civilian
Two central screens display the messages from
all the 5 tables
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Selected Photos
Gavar, Community House, February 17, 2006
The final vote is not easy hesitation over
certain points makes it difficult to choose
Sooner or later we all have to make a choice
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Scenarios final votes
Gavar, Community House, February 17, 2006
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Kapan
March 24, 2006
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Selected Photos
Kapan, Chess School, March 24, 2006
The discussion is about to start
Participants getting acquainted with the proposed
scenarios
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Selected Photos
Kapan, Chess School, March 24, 2006
Discussion facilitator starts the discussion
Lead facilitator processing the incoming messages
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Selected Photos
Kapan, Chess School, March 24, 2006
The messages then appear on the screen
The voting process...
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Scenarios final votes
Kapan, Chess School, March 24, 2006
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Meghri
March 25, 2006
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Selected Photos
Meghri, Town College, March 25, 2006
Getting ready to start
Learning of the scenarios
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Selected Photos
Meghri, Town College, March 25, 2006
Studying the details of the scenarios
Participants start discussing the issue...
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Selected Photos
Meghri, Town College, March 25, 2006
Table Recorder putting down the ideas
The voting process...
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Scenarios final votes
Meghri, Town College, March 25, 2006
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Scenario I Status QuoPros Cons
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Pros

• I guess the situation is desirable for us.
  Throughout time we can extend our dominance and
  presence.
• Today Armenia has a more positive image in the
  international arena, than Azerbaijan and the
  primary goal of our diplomatic corps should be
  strengthening this image.

Cons

• Anecdote Question What is aggression?
  Answer When a state attacks another state
  without the knowledge and permission of the US
  This is our case. We need to change the
  international attitude and make it more favorable
  towards us. Time works for them, but cant we use
  any diplomatic leverage in favor of our cause?

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Scenario II NKR as Part of AzerbaijanPros Cons
NK conflict resolution options
Cons

• The second scenario is absolutely unacceptable.
  In fact, it means all was for nothing. Then why
  did we sacrifice so many lives?
• Sovereignty does not mean independence.
  Sovereignty does not offer any warrants. Can it
  be a warrant against demolition of Armenians?
  Certainly no!

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Scenario III NKR independent or a part of
Armenia Pros Cons
NK conflict resolution options
Pros

• It is unacceptable to transfer arms and military
  equipment through the corridor. This should be
  regulated by law.
• Meghri will be able to provide a corridor, but
  the issue is for it not to become isolated. The
  security of Meghri is the security of Armenia.
• A corridor through Meghri will be beneficial for
  us transfer of goods and the exploitation of the
  railway will enliven our economy.

Cons

• The desire to get Meghri as a corridor underlies
  their positions in negotiations. This means
  another blockade, this time with a double loop.
• The third scenario is not only impossible, but
  it is also undesirable there is no security
  guarantee whatsoever. The enclave status will
  simply kill Karabakh. This is a trap. It seems to
  be a preferable scenario, but in reality it is
  totally the opposite.

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Scenario IV The Issue of Status to be Discussed
in FuturePros Cons
NK conflict resolution options

• What do other countries have to do with
  resolving our problems? We have fought and well
  resolve this issue.
• Well ensure the security of the sovereign
  corridor much better, than any peacekeepers.
  Whenever weve been willing not to allow anything
  to happen on this road, nothing has happened.
• It is quite sensible to open the
  Armenian-Turkish border, but the Armenian-Azeri
  border should be open only when the veterans of
  Karabakh War are over 70.
• Of course, Armenians will not return to Baku or
  Sumgait, but we have to organize our repatriation
  to Getashen and Shahumyan. Otherwise, we are not
  a nation.

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Scenario V Procrastinated Resolution Certain
WarrantsPros Cons
NK conflict resolution options

• It is said that weve shed blood for the land.
  May this become less acute of a feeling in
  future? Though had my son been wounded there, I
  would have never wanted to return these
  territories by any means. Thus, it turns out that
  I want both this and that I cant see any
  solution.
• There are a few provisions which are acceptable,
  but in order to sound trustworthy, the procedural
  issues should be clarified.
• We should talk about what there is and not what
  there used to be. According to this scenario, the
  closed borders will open. There is already
  communication between Armenians and the Azeri. It
  should simply be legitimized. The discussion of
  concession scenarios should be based on economic
  interests.

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General Observations
NK conflict resolution options

• Only now do I understand in what state
  Khocharyan should be! This is a very difficult
  issue.
• The people of Karabakh should be the ones to be
  asked this question and not us.
• The state officials are so far away from the
  people. No one asks us what we think should be
  done.
• Hey, folks, dont be afraid! Through these
  people our opinions will reach the President.
  Watch out in order not to err and say the wrong
  things! Do not disorient the President!

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General Observations
NK conflict resolution options

• In order to be a European, one should be clever
  and manageable. We Armenians qualify for the
  first attribute, but we are unmanageable.
• We learn almost nothing about the Karabakh
  conflict at school. We know bits and pieces about
  it from routine conversations. I think this is an
  issue that should be addressed. I dont even know
  which territories we have taken.
• Karabakh issue will allow the Azeri to save
  face, but for us it is a matter of life and
  death.
• Today Azerbaijan makes belligerent statements,
  and though I am only 18 and have only two hands,
  I will defend my Syunik with ten.

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Scenarios final votes
NK conflict resolution options
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Scenarios final votes
NK conflict resolution options
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Town Hall Meetings