Establishing a Civil Society Mirror

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Establishing a Civil Society Mirror

• Tracking, Analyzing, and Communicating Indicators
  of
• Proliferation Propensity

Jack Boureston FirstWatch International (FWI)
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My task To track proliferationtrends in the
region To proliferate or not? That is the
question, but how can we tell?
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Proliferation propensity a working definition

• The probability that a country or
• non-state actor will decide to acquire
• and deploy nuclear weapons.

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Consider various determining factors

• Sagan
• Security model to counter threats
• Domestic politics model to advance domestic
  interests
• Normative model, following norms to provide as
  symbol of identity
• Berriman, Leslie, and Carlson
• Evidence of procurement of materials and items
• Capability to produce
• Motivation and intent
• Jo and Gartzke
• Opportunities
• Willingness
• Singh and Way
• Technological
• External
• Internal

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Internal determinants

• Ideological grounding
• - Preservation of state or regime
• sometimes manifested through
• nationalism extremism
• - Power projection aspirations
• Attitudes
• - View of nuclear weapons (among those of
  influence)
• - Nuclear taboo
• - Nuclear culture
• - Perceived sphere of influence on policy process

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External determinants

• Security environment
• Threats military, culture, religion, economy
• Regional/balance of power and alliances
• Globalization - economic interdependence
• Economically integrated
• Trade balance/imbalance
• Dependence on foreign investment
• Foreign policy - sanctions, treaties
• Cooperation with International organizations
• Nonproliferation regime Intl norms
• Compliance with international regimes
  
• Participation in international norms regimes
  

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Technological determinants

• Acquisition of sensitive materials and equipment
• Evidence of procurement (what from whom?)
• Research in sensitive technologies
• Enrichment and reprocessing

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Some important points about plotting propensity

• Best explained as qualitative assessments not
  quantifiable assessments
• Hard to quantify
• Subjective
• Best evaluated by experts
• Need to start at a baseline, then plot propensity
  over time

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Plotting propensity

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Sample - Japan 2006
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Japans propensity to proliferate
EXAMPLE ONLY
This would be accompanied with an explanation of
the data points, score and probable trends
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Combined indices-trend analysis
EXAMPLE ONLY
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Information monitoring

• Manual process of following activities, attending
  meetings, talking to people
• Following organizations that would be the
  originators of information
• Automating the process using the Internet and
  software tool

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Evidence of indicators where to look?

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Providing info to IAEA

• Organize by each determinates
• Use a parallel IAEA State evaluation report (SER)
  structure
• Political/legal
• Elements of nuclear fuel cycle
• Research
• Non-nuclear (dual-use equipment, missiles and
  other)
• Trafficking
• Import/export
• Weaponization
• State the significance of each section, with
  headlines or citations?

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IAEAs SER

• Part A Presentation of structure
• History of nuclear program
• Current nuclear program
• Nonproliferation commitments
• Part B Consistency of information
• General consistency of current and planned
  program
• Consistency of specific nuclear activities
  
  (follows the physical model nuclear fuel cycle)
• Consistency of nuclear material flows
• Consistency of equipment imports/exports
• Part C Conclusions
• Unresolved inconsistencies
• Recommendations

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Communicating propensitythree methods

• 1. Ongoing reporting
• 2. Periodic brief for policy makers
• 3. Annual event and statement to be posted on a
  website and distributed as a policy/press release

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1. Ongoing reporting

• Provide indicators of propensity using
  information found in the public domain
• Categorize by country then by indicator
• Possible analysis/concluding remarks?

SAMPLE
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2. Periodic brief for policy makers

• Develop issues briefs
• Report on indicators with assessments of their
  impact on the proliferation propensity of a
  state.
• Deliver via list-serve
• Policy makers
• Public action groups (public forums etc.)

SAMPLE
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3. Annual statement/annual event

• Statement
• Communicating individual state and overall
  propensity in region
• Hold a seminar
• Explain project (English and other languages)
• Definitions
• Indicators (explaining why they are determinants)
• Display graphs
• Statement/declaration to policy makers
• Press release to the public
• Post on website

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References

• 1) Scott D. Sagan, Why Do States Build Nuclear
  Weapons? Three Models in Search a Bomb,
  International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3, Winter
  1996-1997, pp. 54-86.
• 2) Sonali Singh and Christopher R. Way, Paths to
  Non-Proliferation The Need For A Quantitative
  Test of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Theory,
  Pre-Print Draft, later published under The
  Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation A
  Quantitative Test, Journal of Conflict
  Resolution, 2004.
• 3) Dong-Joon Jo and Erik Gartzke, Determinants
  of Nuclear Proliferation Journal of Conflict
  Resolution, February, 2007.
• 4) Annette Berriman, Russel Leslie, and John
  Carlson," Assessing Motivation As a Means of
  Determining The Risk of Proliferation, Presented
  at INMM Conference, July 2004.