The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture

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The Human PopulationPatterns, Processes, and
ProblematicsLecture 18 Ch13 Population Policy

• Paul Sutton
• psutton_at_du.edu
• Department of Geography
• University of Denver

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John Weeks Intro to Population Policy

• In the 1960s and 1970s it was relatively easy to
  see that the population of the world was growing
  too rapidly and that something needed to be done
  about it. Things were done about it, through
  direct and indirect policies, and so now, in the
  twenty-first century, we find that the rate of
  population growth is slowing down. But the
  tremendous momentum built into the worlds age
  structure means that a huge number of people are
  still being added to the worlds total each day
  and this will probably continue for the rest of
  your life. In the process, the implications of
  population growth and change have grown
  increasingly complex, requiring new policies and
  new approaches to policy implementation. In this
  chapter your demographic perspective will be put
  to work looking at how people and nations have
  tried, and continue to try, to influence
  demograpic events. This is an important use to
  which a demographic perspective can be put
  employing your understanding of the causes and
  consequences of population growth to improve the
  human condition, including your own.

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Does the world agree on Population Policy?

• WellNO.
• Some want growth maintained
• Some want growth curbed
• Some want growth increased
• Many see a Population-Environment connection

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What is a Policy?

• In General A policy is a formalized set of
  procedures designed to guide (change?) behavior.
  Its purpose is either to maintain consistency in
  behavior or to alter behavior in order to achieve
  a specified goal.
• Population Policy represents a strategy for
  achieving a particular pattern of population or
  demographic change.

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Policy Approach

• Direct (specific)
• Reduce Fertility to replacement level.
• Indirect (general)
• Increase status of women via education,
  empowerment, and access to contraception.

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Assessing the Future

• SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
• How will fertility change
• In the United States?
• Globally?
• How will mortality change
• In the United States?
• In Kenya?
• Globally?
• How will migration change?
• None of these questions are easy to answer
  accurately

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Establishing a goal

• Demography is usually an intermediate goal which
  is believed to influence more idealistic goals
  like
• Improved standard of living
• Reducing economic inequalities
• Promoting gender equality
• Eliminating hunger or racial/ethnic tension
• Curbing environmental degradation
• Preserving international peace
• Increasing personal freedom

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The Cairo (1994) International Conference on
Population Development (ICPD)

• 15 principles of population related goals aimed
  at improving economic, cultural, and social
  development to improve quality of life for all
  people.

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Basics of Goal Setting

• Is expected future good or bad?
• If good, how to maintain status quo
• If bad, what and how to change
• Will growth curbe economic development?
• Will age/sex structure undermine economy?
• Policies must be continually evaluated Re their
  effectiveness
• Did desired demographic effect occur?
• If demographic effect did occure did desired
  ancillary effects occur?

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Population Policy in the 21st Century

• Fig 13.1 assumes a country or people are aware of
  the future, anticipate change, and try to deal
  with it.
• Some countries assume tomorrow will be like today
  (traditional) often they are Pro-Natalist
• Pro-Natalist Policies
• Forbid/outlaw divorce and/or abortion
• Impede progress of women
• Big Problem Gender inequality
• Are attempts to improve the legal, social, and
  economic status of women just more cultural
  imperialism

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The Nations of the World ignore Demography at
their own Peril

• The United Nations Population Division regularly
  queries the nations of the world about their
  attitude about their population growth.
• More and more governments representing a growing
  fraction of the world population are trying to
  slow population growth.
• Middle countries (happy with current growth rate)
  are most interesting (some happy with low
  fertility U.S. some happy with high fertility
  Saudi Arabia)

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Governments view of their countrys birth rate
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Retarding Growth

• Why?
• Must stabilize population eventually
• Benefits Economic Development
• Natural Resource limits are looming
• How?
• Increase mortality
• Decrease Fertility
• Influence Migration

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Influencing Mortality

• Increasing Mortality
• The lifeboat ethic
• Triage
• Decreasing Mortality
• Usually in tandem with decreasing fertility

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The Life Boat Ethic(often attributed to Garret
Hardin)

• The lifeboat ethic is based on the premise that
  since a lifeboat holds only so many people and
  any more than that will cause the whole boat to
  sink, only those with a reasonable chance to
  survive (those with low fertility) should be
  allowed into the lifeboat. Withholding food and
  medical supplies could drastically raise the
  death rates in less developed nations and thus
  provide a longer voyage for those wealthier
  nations already riding in the lifeboat.
• ..Bon voyage

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Triage

• Triage is the French word for sorting or
  picking, and refers to an anrmy hospital practice
  of sorting the wounded into three groups those
  who are in sufficiently good shape that they can
  survive without immediate treatment, those who
  will survive if they are treated without delay,
  and those basket cases who will die regardless
  of what treatment might be applied. As with the
  lifeboat ethic , it translates into selectivity
  in providing food and economic aid should the day
  come when supplies of seach are far less than
  demand. It means sending aid only to those
  countries that show promise of being able to
  bring their rates of population growth under
  control and abandoning those nations that are not
  likely to improve.

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Decreasing Mortality(why would anyone want to do
that it increases population growth ?)

• Most people probably share the opinion that
  raising mortality is better grist for science
  fiction than for population policy.
• 1) How linked are dropping mortality and
  fertility?
• 2) Often they are administratively linked via
  health care provision in the less developed
  countries.
• 3) Infant mortality link with fertility is weak
  (there are examples of causation every which way)
• Data for Guatemala suggest that it may take at
  least 2 generations for reductions in infant
  mortality to have any influence on fertility.

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Influencing Migration

• Should be easy right?
• Easier than promoting Death.
• Easier than preventing Birth.
• Still, migration is tough to control.

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Immigration may be the sincerest form of
flattery but few countries encourage it.

• Causes racial, ethnic, and cultural conflict
• Has been dramatically facilitated by improvements
  in global transporation and communication
  infrastructure
• Immigration to U.S. and Canada a major fraction
  of global flow today
• Outmigration from Mexico is a mixed blessing
  Remittances good, Loss of working population bad.

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Immigration History of the U.S.(this will go on
for the next 12 slides)

• Prior to the Civil War immigration was
  unrestricted.
• Encouraged by European Death Rate drop
• Free Migration from Europe to North and South
  America and Oceania one of the most significant
  migration of people across international
  boundaries in human history
• After the Civil War we started to get our panties
  in a bunch about immigration

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Immigration of Act of 1882

• Opening of new lands in U.S. plus European
  economic woes caused increased migration after
  the Civil War
• This law levied a head tax of 50 cents on each
  immigrant and blocked the entry of idiots,
  lunatics, convicts, and people likely to become
  public charges.

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Ethnic Exclusion

• 1849 Gold Rush in California created demand for
  labor
• Much labor supplied by Chinese immigration
• Chinese worked on Railroad and as strikebreakers
  (scabs) at east coast strikes
• U.S. broke a treaty with China and excluded them
  from entry to the U.S.
• Chinese exclusion acts lasted from 1882-1943
• Japanese filled gap for some bime but were
  specifically excluded in 1924

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European Migration

• Mostly Northern and Western Europeans migrated to
  U.S. in early stages (98 in 1890)
• Shifted to Southern and Eastern Europeans in
  about 1890
• Ellis Island formed in 1892
• 1891 law prevented people with diseases,
  criminals, the insane (1903), TB (1907)
• In 1917 a literacy requirement was instated which
  required that anyone over 16 must be able to
  read.
• Turn of the century (1900) migrations was
  astronomical in numbers and comparable to rates
  of migration to U.S. in late 1980s and early
  1990s

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Post World War I(Not too tired, not too poor,
not too many.Oh, and by the way, preferably
white europeans)

• 1921 Congress passed The Quota Law
  (this was the first act to set numerical limits
  on immigration)
• limited the number of aliens of any nationality
  to 3 of foreign born persons of that nationality
  who lived in the U.S. in 1910
• Example In 1910 there were 11,498 Bulgarians in
  the U.S. Therefore only (.03)(11,498) 345
  Bulgarians could migrate to U.S. in 1921

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1924 The Immigration Quota Act

• Racist ideas of Eugenics were becoming
  increasingly popular
• Nordics people from northwestern Europe were
  genetically superior to others.
• Result Dramatic and increased restrictions to
  immigration.

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1929 The National Origins Quota

• Attempt to deflect criticism about discriminating
  nature of 1924 law.
• Based on ethnic proportions of U.S. population in
  1790 (no data existed so they guessed)
• Fixed total of 150,000 immigrants allowed per
  year
• If 1790 U.S. population was 50 English then
  75,000 of the new immigrants would be English
• All countries allowed a minimum of 100
• Congress could and did overrride the Quotas to
  allow European refugees to U.S. in prelude to
  WWII
• (Einstein came, not a bad deal ?)

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1952 The McCarran-Walter Act(The Immigration and
Naturalization act of 1952)

• Spurred on by Anti-Communist McCarthy era
• Migrant candidates assessed for their
  compatibility to American Society
• Preferences for needed skills, and relatives of
  American citizens.
• Canada Mirrored U.S. immigration policy pretty
  closely. Why? If they didnt they would have been
  inundated with immigrants.

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Contemporary U.S. Immigration Policy

• Ethnic discrimination ended in early 1960s
• Immigration Act of 1965 ended national origins
  Quota method
• Restrictions on total s remain, as well as on
  restrictions based on Hemisphere of origin.
• Preference system
• Relatives of American Citizens
• Parents of U.S. citizens are unrestricted
• Labor Dept. Certification for Labor Skills a
  priority
• 1976 Parents of American child (kid must be 21)

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U.S. Immigration Policy created massive numbers
of illegal (undocumented) aliens

• Rapid Population growth in Mexico
• Mexicos Economy could not absorb growth
• 1950s and 1960s Bracero program
• 1965 Bracero Program ended by Cesar Chavez and
  other Mexican-Americans along with an attempt at
  curbing illegal immigration to U.S. from Mexico.

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1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA)

• U.S. Perception was that our border was Out Of
  Control.
• Illegal aliens were taking jobs from Americans
• Illegals wee sapping the U.S. Welfare system
• Illegals were Granted amnesty and a shot at
  citizenship for those living continuously in the
  U.S. since before January 1st, 1982
• Made it illegal to hire illegal aliens with
  fines and enforcement
• Law aimed at curtailing illegal immigration but
  had no (ZERO) impact

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1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant
Responsibility Act

• Shifted focus away from busting employers
• Shifted focus toward Border Security
• Big walls outside Tiajuana
• More Border Patrol agents
• 2000 illegal immigrants apprehended every day
• Effectiveness(ZERO)
• Catch and release Gate Keeping
• Brain Drain (who wins ?)

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Immigration Policy Other Countries

• Labor is migrating worldwide
• Germany receives many Turks Eastern Euros
• England receives 50,000/year from India
  Pakistan
• Italy (historically outmigration) enacted policy
  in 1986 to curb immigration
• Denmark gets 15,000 from family re-unification
  alone (created laws to prevent this)
• Malaysia received 65,000 Indonesians in 1st 6
  months of the year 2000
• Afghans flood into Pakistan

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Policy to control Immigration is basically an
absolute failure

• Masseys
• Perverse Laws of International Immigration
• 1) Immigration is easier to start than stop.
• 2) Actions taken to restrict immigration often
  have the opposite effect
• 3) Fundamental causes of immigration maybe
  outside control of policy makers
• 4) Immigrants understand Immigration better than
  policy makers and academics
• 5) Because immigrants are smarter about
  immigration they are better able to circumvent
  policies aimed at stopping them.

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Segway to Fertility(Why does U.S. withdraw
family planning funding?)

• In the final analysis most attempts to limit
  immigration are motivated less by a desire to
  limit population growth in general, and more to
  limit the entrance of certain kinds of people
  into the country (no matter what country we are
  talking about). The greater the social and
  cultural differences between sending and
  receiving societies, the more likely it is that
  attempts will be made to slow down the pace of
  immigration. It is easy to conclude, then, that
  the most effective means by which you can retard
  growth is to nip it in the bud to limit
  fertility.

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Limiting Fertility

• Definitely the best way to slow growth
• Definitely the most complex problem
• 3 Preconditions to fertility decline (Ansley
  Coale)
• 1) Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid
  element in fertilty (secularism ?)
• 2) Perception of advantages to reduced fertility
  on an individual basis (desire for lower
  fertility)
• 3) Availability, knowledge, and mastery of
  techniques of fertility control (filling the
  unmet need gap)
• (Note most policies focus on 3)

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Family Planning

• Provide each woman with the technological ability
  to have only as many children as she wants by
  providing information, services, and appliances
  (including abortion and sterilization)
• Often provided today in tandem with HIV/AIDS
  prevention info etc.
• Key Assumption was Give them access to birth
  control and they will use it. (Not always true)
• Sex and reproduction are politically and socially
  sensitive issues. Selling family planning as part
  of Health care was a good Public Relations
  Practice

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Spread of Family Planning

• In the mid-1960s, developing countries began to
  adopt policies to support family planning as a
  means of slowing population growth. By the late
  1960s, family planning had become a worldwide
  social movement that involved international
  organizations such as the the United Nations Fund
  for Population Activities (UNFPA), government
  agencies such as the United States Agency for
  International Development (USAID), nonprofit
  organizations such as the affiliates of the
  International Planned Parenthood Federation, and
  a host of individuals, many with backgrounds in
  medicine and public health.
• 1965 21 countries supported family planning
• 1974 86 countries supported family planning
• 1989 123 countries supported family planning
  (91 of worlds population)
• NOTE Family Planning Programs goal was to
  eliminate Unmet Need coercion was never, ever,
  part of their program.