The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture

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The Human PopulationPatterns, Processes, and
ProblematicsLecture 19 Ch14 Demographics

• Paul Sutton
• psutton_at_du.edu
• Department of Geography
• University of Denver

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Ch 14 Demographics

• The material covered in Chapters 1-13 can
  actually be put to practical use.
• People make a living as Demographers
• Political Planning
• Social Planning
• Business Planning

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Defining Demography

• Demography is a small but significant academic
  discipline dedicated to discovering new
  information about population patterns and
  processes
• Demographics or Applied Demography is the
  process of using existing theory, knowledge, and
  data to solve real world problems.

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Uses of Demographics

• Central to the U.S. Political Process
• Census for apportionment redistricting
• Allocation of tax dollars
• Social security
• Fiscal impacts of immigration
• Campaign strategy
• Social Planning
• School districting
• Crime mapping/resource allocation
• Day care provision
• Hospital locating
• Business Planning
• Marketing
• Site selection
• Labor pool analysis

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GIS and Demography

• Data is much easier to handle and visualize.
  Dramatic changes taking place in demography as a
  result of GIS

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(No Transcript)
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Marketing to Hispanics in San Diego
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Congressional Reapportionment Redistricting

• State Pop Counts due to president on December
  31st of year of census
• 435 congressional seats to allocate to the states
• Each State gets at least one house
  representative. Then use Method of Equal
  Proportions
• In 2000 32 of 50 states neither lost nor gained
  seats
• If of seats change for a state then
  redistricting occurs.

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Figure 14.3 Whats wrong with this picture?
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Gerrymandering Image (steal)
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Steal 2000 Election Slide from GIS lecture here.
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Campaign Strategy

• The demography of the voting age population
  within a political district is a crucial
  ingredient in winning an election because
  demographic characteristics such as age, sex,
  race, likelihood of voting , and to some extent
  political preferences.
• Candidates are packaged and sold just like
  consumer products based on demographics.
• Demographics is the key element to understanding
  the electoral process and likelihood of winning
  an election.

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Legislative Analysis

• Demographic change bears directly on the
  formulation of social policy because it
  determines in a large part whose income or wealth
  is redistributed to who.
• Baby boomers in 1970s caused inflation
• Govt. Policies tried to create more jobs for
  swelling labor force
• The baby boom retiring
• Thats why 401Ks were created and allowed
• Thats why Social Security is such a big deal
• That a reason we have lax immigration policy

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Social Planning Education

• Declining enrollment
• Increasing enrollment
• Shifting enrollment
• Do you close some schools and open new ones
  elsewhere? If so, what do you do with the closed
  schools?
• College enrollments
• Baby boomlets
• Aging neighborhoods

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Social Planning Health Services

• Illegal Immigration and Emergency rooms in
  Private Hospitals. (Regionally serious problem)
• Aging Population and changes to health care
  services.
• Private Public Disconnect a big problem

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Social Planning Criminal Justics
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Social Planning Transportation
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Business Planning

• When it comes to understanding todays consumer
  maketplace, just about the only thing thats
  certain is that uncertainty reigns. The speed of
  technological change, the volatile global
  economy, the emergence of media-savvy,
  ever-more-demanding customers all have
  coalesced into the blur that characterizes
  business-as-usual at the end of the century.
  Grappling with uncertainty in business planning
  requires more than guesswork, warns business
  guru Peter Drucker. It requires looking at what
  has already happened that will create the future.
  The first place to look, says Drucker, is in
  demographics
• Marketing Demographics
• Cluster Marketing
• Site Selection (location, location, location)
• Investment Demographics
• Human Resource Demographics

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Marketing Demographics and Segmentation

• Demographics are used to segment and target the
  market for a product, and this approach has
  become so populatr that it has eve been suggested
  that a television programs demographic base now
  determines its commercial success far more than
  sheer audience numbers Segmentation refers to
  the manufacturing and packaging of products or
  the provision of services that appeal to specific
  socio-demographically identifiable groups within
  the population. consumer markets are segmented
  on the basis of such demographic variables as
  geographic location, rate or product usage,
  income, age, sex, education, stage in the family
  life cycle, religion, race and social class.
  Industrial markets are segmented demographically
  according to such variables as geographic
  location, kind of business, rate of product
  usage, and size of user. Automobile manufacturers
  are most famous for segmenting the market and
  producing different cars to appeal to different
  categories of people.

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The Ford Mustang (a demographic product)

• Our market research showed that the youthful
  image of the new decade had afirm basis in
  demographic reality. Millions of teenagers, born
  in the postwar baby boom, were about to9 surge
  into the national marketplace. Here was a market
  in search of a car. Any car that would appeal to
  these young customers had to have three main
  features great styling, strong perfomance, and a
  low price. Lee Iacoca

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What can you learn from this figure?
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Demographics and TV

• What commercials would you expect to see on
• Sesame Street?
• NFL Football games?
• Friends?
• Oprah?
• McNeil-Lehrer News Hour
• Sponge Bob Square Pants (this might surprise you)

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Marketing and the Age Structure

• People at different ages have different needs
  and tastes for products and differing amounts of
  money to spend (duh?)
• Baby Stuff Sellers
• How many babies born in a give year?
• Birth Order
• Where are the grandparents?

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Religious Planning