The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture

1
The Human PopulationPatterns, Processes, and
ProblematicsLecture 14 Part III Population
Structure Characteristics1) Age Sex2)
Population Aging the life course3) Family
Demography Life Chances4) The Urban Transition

• Paul Sutton
• psutton_at_du.edu
• Department of Geography
• University of Denver

2
Reminders

• Final Exam Monday November 18th 2-345
• Short Research Paper due week 10

3
Family Household Transition

• The demographic transition is in essence a
  transition in family strategies the reactive,
  largely biological family-building decision rules
  appropriate to highly uncertain environments come
  eventually to be supplanted by more deliberate
  and forward-looking strategies that require
  longer time horizons
• A transition from Family Building by Fate to
  Family Building by Design

4
Shift in Family Household Structure due to

• 1) People Living longer
• 2) Fewer Children / Family
• 3) Increasingly Urban Setting
• 4) Higher Standards of Living
• This is going on worldwide to greater and lesser
  extents.

5
Question Could any Social System remain
unchanged if

• Mortality Rates dropped Dramatically
• Fertility Rates dropped Dramatically
• Significant In or Out Migration
• ? ? ?
• Probably Not

6
Questions for this lecture

• 1) How have households changed over time?
• 2) Ho big is this transition in the U.S.?
• 3) How big is it elsewhere?
• 4) What is the role of the status of women in
  this transition?
• 5) What are the roles of Education, Labor Force
  Participation, Occupation, Income, in household
  behavior?

7
Family Kinship

• Family is people related by birth, marriage, or
  adoption
• The Family seems to be a universal unit across
  culture, space, and time
• Family is a kinship unit
• Is family unit better than the individual for
  studying demographic/household processes?

8
Families Households

• Nuclear Family (Mom, Dad, immediate offspring)
• Extended Family (Grandparents, cousins, etc.)
• Household (A Residential Unit)
• Family Household
• Non-Family Household
• Note Co-habiting couple is considered non-family
  household

9
Evolution of the Nuclear Family Ideal as seen on
TV
10
Family Demography

• Household is a consumption or consumer unit.
• A Family Household is the most powerful consumer
  unit because of the inherent kinship
  relationships it contains.
• Family Demography is the study of the formation,
  change, and dissolution of the Family Household.

11
Family Demography boring

• Who are you? Who will you become?
• Why did you go to college?
• How will having gone to college influence your
  life?
• How does your ethnicity or gender influence your
  life course?
• Will you marry? How much will you earn?
• Tell me about your family Ill make some
  pretty good guesses ?

12
Ascribed Achieved Characteristics

• Ascribed Characteristics sex, race, ethnicity,
  mother tongue, and religion to some extent.
  Things about someone they have very little
  control over but influence their life
  dramatically
• Achieved Characteristics Education, Occupation,
  Labor Force Participation, Income, Marital
  Status. Things about someone that they had a
  great deal of control over.
• Ascribed Characteristics have great influence on
  the Achieved Characteristics someone ends up
  with.

13
Influences on Family Household Structure
14
Household Composition is Changing

• Number of households increased from 63 million to
  106 million from 1970 to 2000
• In 1970 Married with Children was 40 of them
• In 1970 30 were Married, no kids yet
• In 1970 Non-Family Households constituted about
  19 of the total number of households.
• Over this period of time in the U.S. the Family
  Household has been replaced with Friends
  situations, Single parent families (mostly single
  moms), and cohabitating unmarried couples

15
PluralizationChanges to Household Structure
in U.S. 1970 to 2000
16
How does the Demographic Transition drive
Pluralization

• People are living longer
• More widows and widowers
• More divorces
• Lower pressure to marry early
• Personally desired fertility is lower
• Men women have more time not raising children
• Fewer children make marriage less necessary
• Urbanization
• More lifestyle options including same-sex partners

17
Single Moms (unbelievably difficult)

• In 1970 10 of families with children
• In 2000 22 of families with children
• All racial groups seeing an increase
• Rates of Single mom families seemed to peak
  around 1990.
• In 1990 over 50 of African American households
  were headed by a single woman.

18
Percent of Mother-Only Families by Race 1970-2000
19
A Chicken Egg Questionor Mutual
CausalityStatus of Women Demographic Transition

• The demographic transition does not inherently
  produce gender equity and the empowerment of
  women, but it creates the coniditions under which
  that is much more likely to happen John
  Weeks
• Historically men have dominated women lower
  fertility tilts the scale against that
  continuing.
• In 1900 an American woman would think twice about
  going to a restaurant alone or driving a car.
• In 2000 A Saudi Arabian woman still does.

20
Whats Whys of delayed marriage?

• If women marry early they often get pregnant and
  bogged down with child care.
• Guess what, that means they miss prime college
  education years and if they attend college will
  have to overcome age appropriate prejudices
  regarding their attendance.
• The earlier you get married, the higher your
  fertility.
• The Age Gap between husband and wife also
  indicative of difference in power between man and
  woman in a relationship
• Median Age of marriage in U.S. had been dropping
  from 1890 to 1960. Since 1960 Median age of first
  marriage has been rising for both men and women.

21
Percent of women married at ages 15-19
22
Age difference between Husband Wife as a
function of early (15-19) marriage
23
Co-Habitation

• Delay in marriage has not meant people avoid
  living in a family-like situation
• Co-habitation is defined at the sharing of a
  household by unmarried persons who are having a
  sexual relationship.
• 1970 500,000 cohabitors or 1 in 100 couples
• 2000 3.8 million cohabitors or 6 in 100 couples
• ½ of people under 35 have cohabited
• ½ of out-of-wedlock births to cohabitors

24
Out-Of-Wedlock Births

• From 1970 1998 of out-of-wedlock birth jumped
  from 10.7 to 32.8
• 86 of births to women 15-19 out-of wedlock
• Fraction of out-of-wedlock births drops rapidly
  with increasing age.
• People with low income who get pregnant are
  discouraged from marrying because by marrying
  they can lose public benefits such as welfare,
  food stamps etc.
• The United States is more restrictive than are
  most low-fertility socieites in terms of
  providing teenagers with easy and inexpensive
  access to methods of fertility limitation. Prior
  to the 1970s, most of these young women
  conceiving out-of-wedlock would have married
  prior to the babys birth, and so the
  illegitimacy ratio would have been much lower,
  even with the same level of premarital
  conceptions. Of course, the odds were also very
  high that the marriage would have ended in
  divorce after only a few years, so neither
  scenario is particularly rosy for the mother and
  her baby.

25
Children Born out of Wedlock by age Race
26
Childlessness, Divorce, Widowhood

• Naturally about 10 of couples do not have
  children due to involuntary infecundity
• This was the rate in 1970. Today the rate has
  grown because of voluntary infecundity and stands
  at about 19.
• Changes to divorce laws in the 1970s has made
  divorce easier to obtain. The cohort of 1967
  marriages has over a 50 divorce rate.
• Strangely enough, Co-habitation prior to marriage
  increases the chance of divorce
• Widowhood rates kick in only at ages over 65.

27
Changing Patterns of Marriage Divorce in the
U.S. 1970 - 1988
28
Variables that influence your life chances

• Education
• Income
• Labor Force
• Participation
• Occupation
• Race/Ethnicity
• Wealth

29
Education

• Becoming educated is probably the most dramatic
  and significant change that you can introduce
  into your life. (college is only important if
  you dont go)
• 1940 less than 25 of Americans graduated High
  School
• 2000 84 of Americans graduate high school
• 2000 almost 25 of us get an undergraduate degree
• Women just now passing men in education and
  income
• Religious Homogamy being surpassed by Education
  Homogamy
• Education is a ticket to higher income.
• Women around the world are closing the education
  gender gap

30
Female Education Proportions 1970 1990
31
Income Education (Shocking eh?)
32
College Graduation rates over time by Sex
Is this cohort or Period data? What if I tell
you 2006 class of DU will have more women in it
than men?
33
Labor Force Participation

• Male rates higher than women at all ages and
  education levels
• However, Female rates increasing, male decreasing
• Higher Education level -gt Higher Labor Force
  pariticpation
• Massive labor shift in U.S. when female baby
  boomers increased labor force participation.
• 78 of women aged 35-54 now work for wages.

34
Fertility Labor Force Participation

• Women working for wages have fewer children
• Poor, non-working women have highest fertility
• Well paid working women have lowest fertility
• Women entering the workforce has pushed fertility
  to below replacement in many places like Spain,
  Italy, Japan, etc.
• Education, Labor Force Participation, Fertility
  all in a complex interactive arrangement.

35

• Baby Boom women were the biggest change in
  female labor force participation However, the
  women who worked for the war effort during WWII
  were very important pioneers that probably paved
  the way for womens empowerment in many ways.
  These women were often older (post-child bearing)
  and working at reasonably well paid jobs changed
  their world view significantly.
• Question I have a theory that labor shortages
  make good things happen. What evidence have we
  seen that supports that?

36
Occupation

• The most commonly asked question at a cocktail
  party is What do you do?
• Old classification system for occupation was
  White Collar, Blue Collar, Service, and
  Farm
• Significant gender differences by occupation
• Income, Education, Occupation linked (duh!)
• People with higher status jobs think of
  themselves as having a career rather than a job
  and are happier with what they do.
• Shitty Jobs (low wages, no benefits) are 1 of 7

37
Gender Occupation United States(Note no
longer White Collar, Blue Collar, Service
and Farm)
38
Gender Occupation Canada
39
Education, Sex, And Occupation
40
Income

• The average CEO at the biggest 200 companies in
  the Untied States made 11.4 million in 2001 when
  you combined salary, bonuses, and stock gains.
  This works out to be more than 40,000 a day, so
  if we assume a normal work day, then this average
  CEO already made 10,000 by the time for his (yes
  his) morning coffee break.
• The CEOs average daily salary is equivalent to
  the entire annual income of the average American
  Household (40,816 in 1999)
• Money, far more than anything else, is what
  Americans associate with the idea of social
  class.

41
Distribution of Wealth (U.S.)

• 1960 Richest 20 controlled 43 of income
• 1960 Poorest 20 controlled more than 4
• 2000 Richest 20 control 49 of the income
• 2000 Poorest 20 control less than 4
• Thats just income, its much more skewed if you
  look at net worth or total wealth.
• Rich are getting richer and poor getting poorer
• Why?
• 1)Tax Law
• 2) Polarization of jobs into skilled and
  non-skilled
• 3) Demographic changes to age and sex structure
  of the population

42
Income disparities by Race

• Blacks are making greater changes to their
  income than whites.
• BUTGap between whites and blacks are nonetheless
  increasing (whites getting richer faster)
• This can only happen if whole economy is growing.
  
• Sheds some light on the Rising Tide Lifts All
  Boat crap that some people espouse.
• These numbers confounded by fact that black
  households have less income earners on average
  than white households and are often headed by
  women who earn less.
• Assume 2 income family with average income for
  gender and race then the results for 1999 are not
  as bad as graph suggests
• White Household 70,775 Black Household
  55,439

43
The widening income gap between blacks and whites
in U.S. 1947-1999
44
Income Differences by Gender
Japan is the land of the rising sun, but only the
son rises. (a phenomena in almost all countries)

• 1977 Women earned 58 of what men earned
• 1999 Women earned 72 of what men earned
• Why?
• 1) Women in labor force for shorter period of
  time
• 2) Women delay education (often to have kids)
• 3) Real gender discrimination
• This gap is dissappearing and may be gone now.

45
U.S. Income Distribution Class Structure
By 1999, median household incomes, for all major
racial groups, had increased. Look at the graph.
The richest and poorest families grew farther
apart since the late-1970s. In the United States
state and federal taxes and subsidies provide
1,388 per day per person to corporations and the
rich in contrast, all the social programs break
down to only 1.14 per day per person. Source
Michael Moore, Downsize This! p.43-44. What
would YOUR paycheck be like today if, for the
past five years, it had grown at the same rate
of increase as an average CEO's?Also see web
sites Share the Wealth and paywatch.
46
Holly Sklar's article in Z Magazine followsThe
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports
that the richest 1 percent of all Americans,
about 2.5 million people, now receive nearly as
much income after taxes as the bottom 40 percent,
about 100 million people. A decade ago, in 1980,
the top 1 percent received half as much after-tax
income as the bottom 40 percent. The median
family income was just under 39,000 in 1994 in
1989, it was the highest in the last two decades
-- 41,000. The Children's Defense Fund's
S.O.S. America! A Children's Defense Budget says
it would have cost 26 billion to bail children
and families out of poverty in 1988 and under 54
billion to eliminate all poverty. That's far less
than the price of bailing out SLs, "defending"
Europe against a defunct Soviet bloc, or
providing tax breaks and income redistribution
for the rich. According to Harvard economist
Robert Reich, were the personal income tax as
progressive as it was in 1977, "in 1989 the top
tenth would have paid 93 billion more in taxes
than they did. At that rate, from 1991 to 2000
they would contribute close to a trillion dollars
more, even if their incomes failed to rise"
(Atlantic Monthly, February 1991). The demon
deficit is a self-fulfilling prophecy of the rich
to insure their luxuries and war machine over the
necessities of the many. It is a deficit of
humanity, not money.
47
In 1990, households with incomes of less than
10,000 gave an average of 5.5 percent of their
earnings to charity or religious organizations
those with incomes above 100,000 gave only 2.9
percent. Also compare the 1960s with the 1990s
which was the better decade, economically?
Source Robert Greenstein and Scott Barancik,
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Drifting
Apart, July 1990 Holly Sklar, Let Them Eat Cake,
Z Magazine, November 1998, pp. 29-32 In 1994,
the richest 5 took 18 of all US income in
1996, they took 21 . In 1979, the richest 1
held 22 of all US wealth (stocks, bonds,
factories, houses, land, cars, etc) by 1992,
they held 44 (quoted from Edward Wolff, New
York University).
48
(No Transcript)
49
(No Transcript)
50
(No Transcript)
51
The Robber Barons

• Between 1950 and 1970, income disparities
  narrowed in the United States. Since then
  disparities have been growing at a quickening
  pace. While wealthy households are taking a
  larger share of the national income, the tax
  burden has been shifted down the income pyramid,
  through cuts in the top personal income rates,
  capital gains, and increases in regressive social
  security and excise taxes.
• "The growth in the incomes of the richest one
  percent of Americans," observes the Center on
  Budget and Policy Priorities, "has been so large
  that just the increase between 1980 and 1990 in
  the after-tax income of this group equals the
  total income the poorest 20 percent of the
  population will receive in 1990." The gap between
  the wealthy and the middle class has widened such
  that "in 1980, the total amount of after-tax
  income going to the 60 percent of households in
  the middle of the income spectrum...was 12
  percent greater than the income going to the
  wealthiest fifth of households. By 1990, however,
  the income going to the middle three-fifths will
  be seven percent less than that received by the
  top fifth...Census data indicate that the gaps
  between both the rich and the poor and the rich
  and the middle class are wider now than at any
  other time since the end of World War II."
• As the Children's Defense Fund's Marian Wright
  Edelman puts it, "We face a crisis of economic
  injustice . . . From 1982 to 1989, the number of
  U.S. billionaires quintupled while the number of
  children who fell into poverty increased by 2.1
  million," (Mother Jones, May/June 1991).
• But don't the rich give away income? Actually,
  the rich give relatively little and what they do
  contribute saves them in taxes and remits largely
  to their own class. A 1987 study by Yale
  University's Program on Non-Profit Organizations
  found that "most high income Americans are modest
  to stingy givers and only because a tiny minority
  are exceptionally charitable do the wealthy have
  a reputation for generosity," (The Non-Profit
  Times, November 1987). Robert Reich notes that
  "most voluntary contributions of wealthy
  Americans go to the places and institutions that
  entertain, inspire, cure or educate wealthy
  Americans--art museums, opera houses, theaters,
  orchestras, ballet companies, private hospitals
  and elite universities."

52
Interesting Green Party Figure on U.S.
Income Distribution.
53
(No Transcript)
54
Poverty

• Good ways to increase the likelihood you are
  living in poverty
• be female, have lots of children, get
  divorced.
• 1 in 4 families headed by a woman in poverty
  (1999)
• 1 in 2 female headed families w/child under 6 in
  poverty
• Question What is the Poverty Level?
• Answer Assume 1/3 of income spent on food, how
  much would it cost to feed n people on a
  minimal diet and multiply by 3
• Single Person under 65 8,667/year 3.95/hour
  fulltime
• Parent w/ 2 kids 13,423/year 6.08/hour
  fulltime
• Poverty Rates 1960 (22) 1973 (11) Today (12)
• Poverty is relative. Many people around the world
  live on less than 2 dollars a day. Very tricky to
  measure.

55
Living on 2a day
56
Wealth(Not the same as income. Some Kennedy
kids are rich with income of zero)

• Wealth is essentially your Net Worth (assets
  liabilities)
• For most U.S. households this is a House 401K
• How to generate wealth
• Save money from your earnings and invest it
• Borrow money and invest it.
• How to get wealthy
• Marry your money (its a full time job?)
• Inherit your money
• Average Household wealth 1995 40,200
• Net Worth increases with Age (duh!)
• Race differences
• White 49,000) Hispanic (7,300) Black
  (7,100)
• Massive intergenerational transfers of wealth
  just starting in the United States now.

57
Median Net Worth with Income Age
58
Next Up Ch 11 urbanization