Operational Estuarine

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Operational Estuarine Coastal Forecast Systems
in NOAAs National Ocean Service

• .

Frank Aikman III NOAAS National Ocean Service
IOOS Community Modeling Workshop November
28-29, 2006
Acknowledgements to Zack Bronder, Mary
Erickson, Tom Gross, Kurt Hess, John Kelley, Hong
Lin, Greg Mott, Lyon Lanerolle, Ed Myers, Dick
Schmalz, Mark Vincent, Eugene Wei, and Aijun
Zhang
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Outline

• Requirements and Operational defined
• The state of NOS forecast systems
• Operational Systems Management
• The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework
• Ecosystem Applications
• The Future

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NOS Marine Modeling Requirements

• Support of safe efficient navigation
• Water levels for under-keel clearance
• Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability
• Emergency response
• HAZMAT
• Homeland Security
• Search Rescue
• For environmentally sound management of the
  coastal zone
• Ecosystem applications
• Marine geospatial applications
  

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Operational defined

• Requirements-driven (users)
• Built to well-defined standards
• Runs regularly automatically (24x7)
• QC (integrity guaranteed)
• Stability commitment

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In the beginning ..
Nowcasting providing real-time information at
locations other than sensors
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Inputs to Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast
System
Weather Forecast Model
CO-OPS PORTS
Hi-res Mesoscale Weather Forecast Model
NAM (Eta 12)
NOS East Coast Data Assimilation Model
Chesapeake Bay
RIVER INPUTS
NOS CBOFS Model
Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National
Ocean Service, NOAA
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Operational System Management

• Operational Estuarine Models Require Real-Time
  Observations and Forecasts of
• Atmospheric Forcing
• Coastal Boundary Conditions
• Riverine Fresh Water Inputs
• ODAAS Operational Data
• Acquisition and Archive System

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Atmospheric Forcing

• Forecasts NWS/NCEP operational models
• NAM (Eta 12 km)
• Global Forecast System (GFS)
• WRF
• RUC
• Nowcasts Local Analysis Interpolation
• Lake Erie Surface Wind Analysis
  

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Coastal Boundary Conditions

• NWS Operational
• Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS)
• Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)
• NOS Experimental
• East Coast Data Assimilation (ECDA)
• NOS Gulf of Mexico (NGOM)

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Estuarine Fresh Water Inputs

• Riverine fresh water inputs are important
• Affects the estuarine stratification
• Produces the density-driven circulation
• Buoyancy effects on ship UKC
• Salinity determination
• NWS River Forecast Centers
• Forecast guidance at points
• Hourly USGS observed transport
• 6 hourly forecasts of discharge

NWS Mid-Atlantic RFC Inputs
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Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework(COMF)

• Instead of one-of-a-kind creations
• Babel of
• formats
• access methods
• Define develop a single standard system
• Rosetta Stone
• data grabbers
• data base translators

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Individual Model Systems
COMF
Standardized for any model at any location
QA/QC (CORMS)
OPERATIONAL MODELS
DATA INGEST
QA/QC (CORMS)
PRODUCTS TO USERS
Consistent with IOOS (DMAC) the Earth System
Modeling Framework (ESMF) and COARDS/CF
Conventions
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Model Evaluation Environment
Issue - How does CSDL objectively evaluate
existing and emerging modeling technologies to
select appropriate community models to support
requirements for models to address navigational,
inundation, and ecological issues? Criteria - The
selection process must be based on quantitative
measures of accuracy, adaptability, portability
and sustained supportability. Approach -
Establish a series of Modeling Evaluation
Environments (MEE) ? Model Configuration Data
Shorelines, Bathymetries ? Model Execution Data
Model initialization, specification of
environmental conditions ? Model Skill
Assessment Metrics and Observation Initial
Region ? Delaware Bay Models ? Six community
models ? 2-D and 3-D ? Structured (orthogonal
grids) or unstructured (highly variable
triangular elements)
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Ecosystem Applications ofHydrodynamic Models

• Ecosystems
• Noxious biota
• sea nettle probabilities
• Harmful Alagal Blooms (HABs)
• red tide in Gulf of Mexico
• Hazardous materials (HAZMAT)
• dispersion
• Water Quality Sediment
• Transport Nutrient Impacts

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On-going Technical Issues

• Forecast uncertainty estimation
• ensemble averaging
• Data assimilation techniques
• HF Radar altimetry IOOS data etc.
• Higher spatial resolution in key areas (e.g. in
  navigation channels for storm surge and
  inundation modeling)
• Nesting vs. unstructured grids
• Finite difference, element and volume approaches
• Model coupling
• Riverine-estuarine-coastal-basin
• Hydrodynamic-wave hydrodynamic-sediment
  transport
• physical-biogeochemical coupling (ecological
  water quality habitat)
• High-resolution, over-water wind fields

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Broader NOAA Perspective
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Community Modeling and AnalysisIOOS provides
the added value of integration and
interoperability
IOOS Added value provided by focused integrating
efforts

• Advance data assimilation techniques in step with
  new observation technology
• Observing System Experiments (OSE and OSSE)
• Leveraging of non-federal modeling efforts
• Community standards and interoperability

Deep Ocean HYCOM, MOM, WW III Coastal Ocean
Hydrodynamic Port, Estuary and Shelf models
(ROMS, ADCIRC, etc.) Ecological Models
(HAB) Developing ESMF, Coupled Systems,
Mult- disciplinary models
Existing NOAA Modeling Infrastructure that
Supports IOOS (Mission Driven)
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NOAA Ocean Modeling3-point strategy

• Establish and evolve backbone NOAA Ocean
  Modeling Capability
• GFDL/NCEP Basin Scale Ocean Models
• NOS Coastal and Estuary Hydrodynamic models
• Ocean and Coastal Data Assimilation
• Establish and implement the coastal and
  ecosystem modeling systems
• Shared Modeling environment with partners
• Tool Boxes and support to NGOs and Academia
• Establish necessary partnerships
• US Navy, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Geologic
  Survey
• Regional Consortia for Coastal Modeling System
• University-based consortia Ecosystem Modeling
  System

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Pathway from Research to Applications and
Operations
Evaluation and Testing, Development, Transition
to Operations
Research and Development
Value Added Product Development
Operations
Academia, Regional Associations, Research
components of NOAA other Fed Agencies
Private Sector
Actively manage these interfaces, through
community modeling partnerships
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To Summarize

• Requirements and Operational defined
• The current state of NOS forecast systems
• Operational Systems Management
• The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework
• Applications
• Ecosystem
• The Future