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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

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Title: ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation


1
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
FAA / EUROCONTROL Cooperative RD Action Plan 9
System Wide Modeling in Fast-time
Simulation Current and Future Capabilities
1st Annual Workshop NAS-Wide Simulation in
Support of NextGen
Dec. 10th George Mason University
2
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • TABLE OF CONTENTS
  • Introduction
  • Research Objective
  • Approach
  • Scope
  • Findings
  • Questionnaire Sections
  • Existing Capabilities
  • Gaps in Capabilities
  • Conclusions
  • Needs
  • Industry Participation
  • Integration Issues

3
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • INTRODUCTION
  • Action Plan 9 (AP9) Air Traffic Modeling of
    Operational Concepts
  • Research Objectives
  • Determine modeling capabilities of existing
    system wide tools
  • Determine the availability of capabilities
    required for future system wide concepts
  • Approach
  • TIM Madrid, Spain, Nov. 16-17, 2006
  • Interviews with model developers and subject
    matter experts
  • Responses from 15 organizations and 28 subject
    matter experts
  • 18 fast-time system wide modeling tools
  • Document the research and the conclusions

4
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • SCOPE
  • System wide is equivalent to
  • Runway-to Runway operations (US)
  • Gate-to-Gate operations (Europe)
  • Focus
  • - System operations as opposed to economic,
    financial or political attributes of the ATM
    system, and
  • - System wide modeling capabilities that
  • Capture propagation of a problem throughout the
    system
  • Support modeling of future operations,
    technologies and concepts.

5
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • INTERVIEW QUESTIONNAIRE SECTIONS
  • General Modeling Information
  • Airspace
  • Flight Schedule Trajectories
  • Separation Tactical Control
  • Traffic Flow Management (TFM)
  • Airports
  • Aircraft
  • Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)
  • Environment
  • Infrastructure
  • Human Performance
  • Software Architecture and Programming

6
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • FINDINGS EXISTING CAPABILITIES
  • General Modeling Information
  • Discrete event, continuous time, agent-based,
    and analytical tools
  • Stochastic processes or working toward
    stochastic elements
  • Capacity, delay, and efficiency primary focus
  • Airspace
  • Most considered sectors as resources others more
    detailed
  • Sector capacity typically modeled using MAP
    values
  • Flight Schedules and Trajectories
  • Traffic defined by
  • schedules
  • filed flight plans
  • as-flown trajectories
  • great circle routes
  • 4D trajectories pre-processing vs. run-time
    adjustments
  • Some considered uncertainty in 4D positions

7
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • FINDINGS EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
  • Separation Tactical Control (varied in models)
  • Conflict detection and resolution
  • Capacity-demand imbalances
  • Flight re-routing
  • Traffic Flow Management
  • Departure Time Management (mostly European
    tools)
  • Ground Delay and Ground Stop Programs
  • In-trail restrictions, metering and sequencing
    (limited)
  • Re-routing around severe weather cells (limited)
  • Airports
  • High-level vs. detailed capabilities
  • Departure sequencing and delay
  • Aircraft
  • Varying levels of fidelity of aircraft
    performance characteristics modeling

8
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • FINDINGS EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
  • Collaborative Decision Making
  • AOCs/Pilots
  • Flight slot swapping (pre-processing)
  • Environmental Concerns
  • Only via post-processing
  • Infrastructure
  • Failure rates via impact on capacity limitations
  • Human Performance
  • - Controller workload task allocation and
    time-on-task
  • Software Architecture and Programming
  • Maturity of the tools
  • Validation and verification
  • Integration of new capabilities

9
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • FINDINGS GAPS IN CAPABILITIES
  • Objective sector capacity evaluation as a
    function of
  • Human performance
  • Traffic complexity
  • Separation standards
  • Weather
  • Ability to distinguish operational and
    procedural differences across
  • Domains and airspace segments (en route,
    terminal, approach/departure, etc.)
  • Different categories of flights (IFR vs. VFR,
    equipage based performance, etc.)
  • Different categories of airspace (PBA)

10
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • FINDINGS GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
  • Propagation of impacts from one restriction to
    another (including CDM)
  • Conflict detection and resolution
  • Capacity-demand imbalances (MAPs, in-trail
    restrictions, LOAs, etc.)
  • Flight re-routing (SUAs, congestion, weather,
    etc.)
  • Propagation of impacts from one resource to
    another
  • Both from ground to air, and air to air resource
  • Supporting infrastructure and its requirements
  • System errors, update rates, failures and
    outages
  • Incorporation of stochastic processes and
    behaviors
  • Uncertainty in aircraft 4D position
  • Non-compliance with the expected user behavior
    (e.g. 4D contract and TMI)
  • Future concepts of interest (examples)
  • Dynamic Sectorization
  • Multi Sector Planner

11
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • FINDINGS GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
  • Standardized performance measures and indicators
    to facilitate repeatability and cross-comparison
    of the outcomes
  • Optimization capabilities, including both
    individual trajectory and flow or system wide
    optimized solutions
  • Environmental considerations, restrictions, and
    trade-offs
  • Other considerations
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Validation and verification
  • Difficulty of integration of new capabilities
    and disconnectivity between tools

12
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
  • Providing Insights vs. Predictions of Future
  • Required level of detail
  • Flexibility
  • Industry Participation Needed
  • Aircraft performance chars. (manufacturers, air
    carriers, etc.)
  • 4D trajectory building
  • Fuel burn
  • CDM
  • Airline goals
  • Re-routing negotiations

13
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • CONCLUSIONS
  • Balance between too much and too little detail
    is important
  • Flexibility is crucial
  • Desired level of fidelity as a function of
    modeling objective
  • Do not focus on generating outcomes and
    data-drilling capabilities
  • Focus on providing novel analytical capabilities
    while ensuring consistency
  • Plug-and-play capabilities
  • Flexible modeling environment
  • Harmonious modeling components

14
ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
  • Contact Information
  • Albert Schwartz, FAA
  • albert.schwartz_at_faa.gov
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