ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation
FAA / EUROCONTROL Cooperative RD Action Plan 9
System Wide Modeling in Fast-time
Simulation Current and Future Capabilities
1st Annual Workshop NAS-Wide Simulation in
Support of NextGen
Dec. 10th George Mason University
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Introduction
• Research Objective
• Approach
• Scope
• Findings
• Questionnaire Sections
• Existing Capabilities
• Gaps in Capabilities
• Conclusions
• Needs
• Industry Participation
• Integration Issues

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• INTRODUCTION
• Action Plan 9 (AP9) Air Traffic Modeling of
  Operational Concepts
• Research Objectives
• Determine modeling capabilities of existing
  system wide tools
• Determine the availability of capabilities
  required for future system wide concepts
• Approach
• TIM Madrid, Spain, Nov. 16-17, 2006
• Interviews with model developers and subject
  matter experts
• Responses from 15 organizations and 28 subject
  matter experts
• 18 fast-time system wide modeling tools
• Document the research and the conclusions

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• SCOPE
• System wide is equivalent to
• Runway-to Runway operations (US)
• Gate-to-Gate operations (Europe)
• Focus
• - System operations as opposed to economic,
  financial or political attributes of the ATM
  system, and
• - System wide modeling capabilities that
• Capture propagation of a problem throughout the
  system
• Support modeling of future operations,
  technologies and concepts.

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• INTERVIEW QUESTIONNAIRE SECTIONS
• General Modeling Information
• Airspace
• Flight Schedule Trajectories
• Separation Tactical Control
• Traffic Flow Management (TFM)
• Airports
• Aircraft
• Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)
• Environment
• Infrastructure
• Human Performance
• Software Architecture and Programming

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• FINDINGS EXISTING CAPABILITIES
• General Modeling Information
• Discrete event, continuous time, agent-based,
  and analytical tools
• Stochastic processes or working toward
  stochastic elements
• Capacity, delay, and efficiency primary focus
• Airspace
• Most considered sectors as resources others more
  detailed
• Sector capacity typically modeled using MAP
  values
• Flight Schedules and Trajectories
• Traffic defined by
• schedules
• filed flight plans
• as-flown trajectories
• great circle routes
• 4D trajectories pre-processing vs. run-time
  adjustments
• Some considered uncertainty in 4D positions

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• FINDINGS EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Separation Tactical Control (varied in models)
• Conflict detection and resolution
• Capacity-demand imbalances
• Flight re-routing
• Traffic Flow Management
• Departure Time Management (mostly European
  tools)
• Ground Delay and Ground Stop Programs
• In-trail restrictions, metering and sequencing
  (limited)
• Re-routing around severe weather cells (limited)
• Airports
• High-level vs. detailed capabilities
• Departure sequencing and delay
• Aircraft
• Varying levels of fidelity of aircraft
  performance characteristics modeling

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• FINDINGS EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Collaborative Decision Making
• AOCs/Pilots
• Flight slot swapping (pre-processing)
• Environmental Concerns
• Only via post-processing
• Infrastructure
• Failure rates via impact on capacity limitations
• Human Performance
• - Controller workload task allocation and
  time-on-task
• Software Architecture and Programming
• Maturity of the tools
• Validation and verification
• Integration of new capabilities

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• FINDINGS GAPS IN CAPABILITIES
• Objective sector capacity evaluation as a
  function of
• Human performance
• Traffic complexity
• Separation standards
• Weather
• Ability to distinguish operational and
  procedural differences across
• Domains and airspace segments (en route,
  terminal, approach/departure, etc.)
• Different categories of flights (IFR vs. VFR,
  equipage based performance, etc.)
• Different categories of airspace (PBA)

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• FINDINGS GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Propagation of impacts from one restriction to
  another (including CDM)
• Conflict detection and resolution
• Capacity-demand imbalances (MAPs, in-trail
  restrictions, LOAs, etc.)
• Flight re-routing (SUAs, congestion, weather,
  etc.)
• Propagation of impacts from one resource to
  another
• Both from ground to air, and air to air resource
  
• Supporting infrastructure and its requirements
• System errors, update rates, failures and
  outages
• Incorporation of stochastic processes and
  behaviors
• Uncertainty in aircraft 4D position
• Non-compliance with the expected user behavior
  (e.g. 4D contract and TMI)
• Future concepts of interest (examples)
• Dynamic Sectorization
• Multi Sector Planner

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• FINDINGS GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Standardized performance measures and indicators
  to facilitate repeatability and cross-comparison
  of the outcomes
• Optimization capabilities, including both
  individual trajectory and flow or system wide
  optimized solutions
• Environmental considerations, restrictions, and
  trade-offs
• Other considerations
• Sensitivity analysis
• Validation and verification
• Difficulty of integration of new capabilities
  and disconnectivity between tools

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
• Providing Insights vs. Predictions of Future
• Required level of detail
• Flexibility
• Industry Participation Needed
• Aircraft performance chars. (manufacturers, air
  carriers, etc.)
• 4D trajectory building
• Fuel burn
• CDM
• Airline goals
• Re-routing negotiations

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• CONCLUSIONS
• Balance between too much and too little detail
  is important
• Flexibility is crucial
• Desired level of fidelity as a function of
  modeling objective
• Do not focus on generating outcomes and
  data-drilling capabilities
• Focus on providing novel analytical capabilities
  while ensuring consistency
• Plug-and-play capabilities
• Flexible modeling environment
• Harmonious modeling components

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in
Fast-Time Simulation

• Contact Information
• Albert Schwartz, FAA
• albert.schwartz_at_faa.gov