KYOTO:

1

• KYOTO
• The Solution or the Problem?
• Christopher C. Horner
• European Enterprise Institute
• University Carlos III
• 28th March 2006

2
Kyoto is Clearly a ProblemMade worse by its
proponents

• Symptoms of Affliction with the Kyoto Disease
• false sense of environmental and moral
  superiority
• A belief, e.g., by the European public, that one
  is complying with Kyoto, and that this would have
  a detectable impact on climate
• Often caused by politicians who intentionally
  lead the public to believe it
• EU now actually issues press releases so
  inaccurate they are disproved by the very first
  page of the document they announce
• This irresponsible political leadership leaves
  the debate worse off than when it started 15
  years ago is that success?
• Because the only rational and practical response
  agreeing to a more sensible approach would
  be a huge political blow, they dig deeper

3
Artículo 18In Practice Rhetoric about
Consequencia, Si, Actual Consequencia? No!

• En su primer período de sesiones, la Conferencia
  de las Partes en calidad de reunión de las Partes
  en el presente Protocolo aprobará unos
  procedimientos y mecanismos apropiados y eficaces
  para determinar y abordar los casos de
  incumplimiento de las disposiciones del presente
  Protocolo, incluso mediante la preparación de una
  lista indicativa de consecuencias...Todo
  procedimiento o mecanismo que se cree en virtud
  del presente artículo y prevea consecuencias de
  carácter vinculante será aprobado por medio de
  una enmienda al presente Protocolo.
• Entonces, que pasa a Montreal? The Parties
  refused.

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Other Inconvenient TruthsFrom Most Recent
Commission Climate Document

• Kyoto Rhetoric "The EU must continue sic to
  lead by example..."
• EU Truth Europe's CO2 and GHG emissions are
  rising since Kyoto (1997) they are rising faster
  than certain others', e.g., the United States.
• Kyoto Rhetoric "The EU is already at the
  forefront of approaches to decouple economic
  growth from increasing energy consumption."
• EU Truth in a way, yes, you have decoupled
  them you have the emissions growth without the
  economic growth!
• EU economy is flat, but emissions are growing.
• US economy is growing, but emissions are flat.
• EU energy intensity is dropping more slowly than
  others.
• Why? Healthy economies, not rationing, produce
  improved emission performance. For now, only
  collapse has reduced actual emissions.

5
Yes, yesEnron loved the schemeFrom internal
December 1997 post-Kyoto memo

• precisely what we have been lobbying for
• This agreement will be good for Enron stock!!
  not good enough, apparently
• we need to monitize (sic) our relationship with
  the green groups to get them to not aggressively
  target powerful GHG methane
• When you rob Peter to pay Paul, you can always
  count on the support of Paul. George Bernard
  Shaw

6
Yes, its other fans candidly reveal their
desiresAnd they dare to say you should do this
for the worlds poor?

• Isn't the only hope for the planet that the
  industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it
  our responsibility to bring about? Kyoto
  Protocol architect Maurice Strong
• We've already had too much economic growth in
  the US. Economic growth in rich countries like
  ours is the disease, not the cure. Paul Ehrlich,
  author of Population Bomb and Population
  Explosion
• We have to sic offer up scary scenarios,
  make simplified, dramatic statements, and make
  little mention of any doubts we may have. Each of
  us has to sic decide what the right balance is
  between being effective and being honest.
  Stephen Schneider (quoted in Our Fragile Earth,
  Jonathan Schell)

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And, finally, EU politicians are often quite
candid

• The first component of an authentic global
  governance.
• French President Chirac, Opening remarks, COP-6
  The Hague November 2000
• Kyoto is a peanutthat is, just a tiny first
  of 30 steps.
• Joke Waller-Hunter (RIP), then-executive
  secretary of the U. N. Framework Convention on
  Climate Change, BBC News Online, COP-9, November
  29 2003.
• This is about international relations, this is
  about economy about trying to create a level
  playing field for big businesses throughout the
  world. You have to understand what is at stake
  and that is why it is serious.
• We do. No one claims it would have a detectable
  impact on climate under any assumptions. This
  was a tool to help Europe compete. It failed.
• Then-European Union Commissioner for the
  Environment Margot Wallstrom, quoted by The
  Independent (London), 19 March 2002, p. 14.

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Low troposphere shows no meaningful human-made
warming trend with more carbon dioxide in the
air And all models swear it is much warmer now
than it really is!
Model
Human-made warming trend expected from computer
models
Human-made warming trend expected from computer
models
Satellites
Weather Balloons
J. Christy et al. www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/MSU/msusc
i.html
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Alarmist Cries are UnsupportedEvery computer
model also predicts linear warming

• That is, claims of accelerating, exponential,
  runaway or delirious climate are ABSURD and
  without support
• 30-year temperature trend to date thru 2005 bears
  this out (if cooler than the models say), with a
  remarkably consistent or linear 0.17 C per
  decade (surface 0.08 C troposphere), or 1.7
  (or, 0.8 C ) over a century
• Now, even assuming arguendo the premise of
  man-made warming, spending billions on policies
  to potentially delay mild warming 0.06C by 6
  years is ridiculous.
• This is ever more true now that we know Kyoto, as
  implemented, will mean no global GHG reductions
  but instead an increase and wealth transfers
  from, e.g., Spain.

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Nobility in breaking promises that others are
too realistic to makeEuropes CO2 Emissions
Spike Since Kyoto(like Canada, Japan, et al.)
Were on track Nothing to see here!
Kyoto (1997)
11
(No Transcript)
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Same period US Emissions up .007GHG Down 0.8
2000 - 2003Despite Adding Combined Population of
Norway and Ireland (8.6 Million)And Adding
Growth Economy of China (1.23 Trillion) (as of
2002)
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Spains GHG/Kyoto PerformanceSource UNFCCC,
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories Report from
Spain 1990-2003
No Bueno!
14
To Comply with Kyoto GDP Loss Per Global
Insight, real GDP shrinks 3.1 (26 billion )
below base case levels during 2008-12. In 2025
real GDP would be 4.3-5.6 (48 to 63 billion)
below the baseline depending on Case 1 or 2.
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Jobs Lost 611,000-708,000Compliance means
annual job losses projected at 611,000 in 2010.
By 2025, job losses 626,000 under the proposal
for Case 1 or 708,000 if Case 2 implemented.
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Europes own Businesses Tell UsWhy the US,
China, et al will not repeat Europes mistake

• Even without complying with this first of 30
  steps, Europes policies are inflicting pain on
  its people.
• Per the Union of Industrial and Employers
  Confederation of Europe (UNICE), representing
  more than 20 million companies in 33 European
  countries
• The emerging large increases in electricity
  prices and their potential impacts on
  international competitiveness are a major concern
  for energy-intensive industries. A full analysis
  of the impacts of the ETS and appropriate
  improvements is critically needed.
• November 2005

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If Kyoto is the answer, what in the world is the
question?

• Marrakech penalties, just adopted, as agreed in
  2001 were mandatory and self-executing
• As adopted, are now discretionary and illusory
• Further, Parties were given a 6th year to obtain
  GHG credits to comply with 5-year quota
• Finally, Kyoto Article 18 requires that in order
  to be binding, penalties be adopted as amendment
  (e.g., penalty language must be separately
  ratified per the treatys terms)
• Led by Europe, Kyotos Parties refused, so Kyoto
  is as binding or enforceable as a note passed in
  class

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Complaints about the Kyoto AlternativeAsia-Pac
ific Pact drives Kyotophiles into frenzy of
illogic

• It isnt binding!
• Neither is Kyoto.
• It isnt enforceable!
• Againneither is Kyoto.
• It doesnt have targets and timetables!
• Kyoto does. And yet everyones emissions are
  increasing.
• APP covers more emissions 50 (APP) vs. 25
  (Kyoto).
• It covers over half of worlds economy,
  population and energy use.
• It includes the countries with the largest total
  emissions (US and China) the country with the
  largest emissions per person (Australia), plus
  other top-10 emitters (and Kyoto free-riders)
  India and South Korea all on equal terms, as well
  as the home-of-Kyoto, Japan.
• It really is not an alternative to Kyoto
  (2008-2012).
• But it is an alternative to something that will
  never exist
• Kyoto post-2012.

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There is no Plan B!Margot Wallstrom,
then-Environment Commissioner

• Well, this may succeed in avoiding discussion of
  Kyotos weaknesses and other approaches
  benefitsbut its quite irresponsible.
• Even with Europes negligible population growth
  and largely stagnant economy, only two of the
  entire EU-15 countries have a remote possibility
  of achieving their Kyoto emission reduction
  target.
• In the meantime, Europe is increasingly
  isolated, increasingly unilateral.
• Maybe it is time to put aside political pride?

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This Emperor Has No Clothes
21

• EXTRA SLIDES

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Besides the other problems

• On further problem of speaking in terms of Kyoto
  as the goal, and leading people to believe that
  Kyoto would make a difference this ensures there
  will be no honest discussion and assessment of
  other approaches to the issue.
• One example of how this is done politicians
  speak in terms of cost/benefit analysis that
  addresses the cost of one Kyoto, compared to the
  projected benefit of all 30. Dishonest.

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Quotes IFIEC-Europe

• The EU ETS has directly become a pure financial
  market dominated by producers and financial
  traders, who are speculating on the future prices
  of CO2it is a market dominated by producers and
  financial traders who use it for financial
  speculation which drives up the cost and
  increases volatility.
• Creates a non-level playing field. (government
  inability to design a system without winners or
  losers)
• Creates windfall profits for the electric
  utility companies because of the lack of
  competition in the new liberalised electricity
  market.
• There is no incentive to use new technology
  solutions or reduce GHG emissions at the producer
  level.
• It is not a tool that manufacturing industries
  can use for making real investments in ghg
  reductions.
• ET's has created a huge transfer of wealth from
  the consumers to the producers and this is
  extended by the lack of competition in a newly
  (not fully) liberalised electricity market.
  Producers are indeed able to transfer their
  direct CO2 costs to their customers but they also
  charge them further, creating important windfall
  profits.

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Those who tell the stories rule society,
PlatoOr was it the other way around

• Yesterday, 155 countries rejecting mandatory cuts
  in favor of a voluntary approach was a stalemate
  (caused by the United States)
• Today, 155 countries rejecting mandatory cuts in
  favor of a voluntary approach is an historic
  victory (shaming the United States)
• "Who controls the past controls the future and
  who controls the present controls the past,"
  Orwell

25
Why is Montreal MOP-1 declareda pro-Kyoto
victory?

• The UNFCCC parties promise voluntary GHG
  reductions at COP-11 the 180 agreed to continue
  discussing their voluntary efforts, on the
  express condition of no binding promises
• Thats less than the status quo ante since 1992
• Compares favorably US emissions (voluntary
  plan) are flat since KyotoEU CO2 emissions
  increased markedly over the same period
  http//org.eea.eu.int/documents/newsreleases/ghg_i
  nventory_report-en EEA 21 June 2005

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The US, China et al Will Not Repeat Europes
Alarming Mistake

• Europe has implemented a cap trade system and
  energy and carbon prices have skyrocketed. A cap
  trade program is extremely complex and high in
  costs
• The price of baseload EU electricity has risen
  from 35 euros/mwh on October 25, 2004 to 54
  euros/mwh, an increase of 54. The price of CO2
  has risen from 8 euros to 27 euros, a 325
  increase in that same time period
• This is even well beyond the expectations of
  studies that warned about the threatening effect
  of indirect costs coming from pricing opportunity
  costs into the production cost of power plants.
  This is because the current CO2-price has surged
  above the level that most of the scientific
  studies and political decision makers took into
  consideration as a potential outcome.
• International Federation of Industrial Energy
  Consumers-Europe, a trade association
  representing about 80 of the energy-intensive
  industrial consumers from sixteen European
  countries, from a June 28, 2005 report entitled
  Correcting the failures in the EU-Emissions
  Trading Scheme.

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•   Q So the EU is not a champion either in
  reducing emissions, is this what you are saying?
  (que mal!)
• A They are sic actually bringing emissions
  down but their targets were the easiest...You
  could say that the US did a very bad job at
  negotiating Kyoto while the EU did a good job.
• ...On the other hand, the EU, despite the
  targets they have set, is not getting there
  either.
• http//www.euractiv.com/Article?tcmuritcm29-1403
  39-16typeInterview Egenhofer Euractive
  Interview 2 June 2005