Brainstorm on Environment

1
Brainstorm onEnvironment Conflict
Prevention

• Marloes H.N. Bakker
• Den Haag, 06 October, 2008

2
Roadmap

• Intros to
• Workshop Topic
• Global Environmental Change
• Climate change
• Impacts on water resources ? water wars?
• Environmental Peacemaking
• Water and
• Conflict
• Cooperation
• Your thoughts ? start of discussion

3
Intro workshop

• Aim
• What is the current state of knowledge?
• Means
• Share experiences and thoughts
• Outcome
• Further exploration / cooperation on this topic?

4
Global Environmental Change

• Drivers of Change
• Economic
• Environment
• Social
• Demographic
• Policy, law, institutional
• Technology
• Climate change

5
Climate change

• Security implications
• Increasing scarcity and variability of renewable
  resources
• Declining resource base
• Increased demand
• Sea-level rise
• Displacement?
• Intensification of natural disasters
• Migration

6
The Worlds Water

• 97 of the worlds water is salty or brackish
• Of the remaining 3 that is freshwater, 99 is in
  inaccessible polar ice caps, glaciers or deep
  aquifers
• 0.03 of the total is easily accessible freshwater

7
Water Wars?

• The next war in the Middle East will be fought
  over water, not politics.
• Boutros Boutros Ghali, 1991, 1997, 2005
• Wars of the next century will be over water, not
  oil.
• Ismail Serageldin
• Fierce competition for freshwater may well
  become a source of conflict and wars in the
  future.
• Kofi Annan
• Anybody who can solve the problems of water will
  be worthy of two Nobel Prizes one for peace and
  one for science.
• President J.F. Kennedy

8
"The Waters of the Middle East  Scenarios of
Wars to Come"
9
gt 270 Shared River Basins
10
TFDD stats
Source http//www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu
11
Transboundary flood stats
Source Bakker PhD thesis
12
Conflict at different levels

• Irrigation and agricultural use
• Industrial use
• Household use
• And cooperation and conflict almost always
  co-exist.

13
Darfur
Ethiopia

• Darfur is an environmental crisis a conflict
  that grew at least in part from desertification,
  ecological degradation and a scarcity of
  resources, foremost among the water
• UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon
• Sept. 2007

• Shrinking resource base exacerbated by
• Population growth
• Environmental degradation
• Climate change?

14
Environmental Conflict

• Environment is neither a necessary nor sufficient
  cause of violent conflict
• Environmental contributions to violent conflict
  are underlying, sub-national and diffuse
• Indirect role in intrastate (rather than
  interstate) violent conflict
• Most significant renewable resources
• Fisheries
• Arable land
• Water
• Deforestation

15
Global change conflict

• The extent to which global warming is a threat to
  security is determined by the societys level of
  vulnerability.
• Vulnerable not being able to cope with the
  effects of climate change

16
Environmental Peacebuilding

• Pro-active exploitation of environmental
  problems
• Increases mutual trust
• Fosters collective identities
• Reduces uncertainties
• causes Stability Peace?

17
Environmental Peacebuilding

• Initiatives to prevent conflicts that are
  directly related to the environment
• Polluted regions Baltic States
• Efforts to initiate and sustain a dialogue on
  transboundary environmental cooperation between
  parties to a conflict
• K2 Peace Park
• Initiatives that seek a lasting peace by
  promoting conditions for sustainable development.
• Role of Water Israel Palestine India
  Pakistan

Source Carius Dabelko, 2004 Conca, Carius,
Dabelko, 2005
18
Thank you.

• Marloes Bakker
• Email mab_at_ihe.nl

19
Natural Resources

• Overexploitation, pollution, mismanagement,
  scarcity or abundance of natural resources
• Exacerbated by climate change
• Resulting in increased competition, turbulence,
  migratory movements and conflict and insecurity?

20
Climate change the facts

• Sufficient evidence that climate change is real
• Climate change is more than an unprecedented
  environmental challenge it is a massive
  development, economic and social challenge.

Rising atmospheric temperatures
Rising sea levels
Reduction in snow cover
21
Change in precipitationscarcity vs abundance
22
Environment, Natural Resources and Conflict

• Contributing to the outbreak of conflict
• DRC, Liberia
• Financing and sustaining conflict
• Cambodia, Liberia
• Spoiling the prospects for peace

23
Social Effects

• Environmental scarcity contributes to
• Migration (marginal lands, urban areas)
• Undercutting economic activity
• Resource capture by elites
• Weakening of states
• If adaptation is not sufficient, these social
  effects can exacerbate existing ethnic and/or
  income divisions ( more immediate causes of
  conflict).

Source Woodrow Wilson Center
24
Soyour thoughts and experiences?

• Should climate change be included in the security
  agenda?
• Is there a relationship between humanitarian
  needs and violent conflict?
• Will global environmental change affect conflict
  patterns?
• Do environmental conflicts exist?
• Is the environment an essential ingredient in
  achieving peace?

25
Discussion Questions

• What can donor nations and international aid
  organizations do to prevent conflict?
• How can cooperative mechanisms reduce conflict
  potential?
• Variable peacemaking potential among resources?
  is water better than land or forests better than
  minerals
• Are there barriers to overcome across
  institutional and topical lines to develop /
  implement environmental peacebuilding?
• UN, regional organizations, donor agencies, NGOs,
  academics
• National resource management, development,
  conflict, governance
• Should it be called environmental peacebuilding
  or should the concept itself be integrated?