EffectsBased Operations EBO

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Effects-Based Operations(EBO)

• Dr. Cihan DAGLI
• Emel METEOGLU

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Agenda

• Definition of EBO
• EBO vs. TBO vs. OBO
• Classification of Effects
• EBO Methodology
• Why is EBO important?
• EBO Requirements
• EBO Tools
• Pitfalls for EBO
• Conclusion

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Definition of Effects-Based Operation

• Effects based operations is a process to produce
• influence on the long-term or short-term state of
  a
• system in order to attain desired objectives
  utilizing
• the integrated application of all applicable
• instruments of hard/soft power.
• These desired effects are concurrently planned,
• executed, assessed within a complex and adaptive
• system view.

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Effects/Objective/Target Based Operations1
Effects-Based

• 
  
  
  
• Effects-Based
  Physical and behavioral desired
  effects
  
• Objective-Based
• Objectives at every
  level
• 
  Physical effects at target
  
  level

Objective-Based
Target-Based
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Effects-Based vs. Objective-Based

• Direct
• Objective-Based
  Effects-Based

Objective
Objective
Effect
Mechanism
Action
Action
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Effects

• Effects are the consequences or outcomes of
• actions which can be created by any national
• power
• Effects should be assignable, measurable and
• feasible. I should include timeframe and it
• should identify what or who is to be affected.

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Effects
Direct Effects
Cascading
Indirect Effects
Cumulative Systemic
Physical Functional
Psychological Collateral
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Strategic/Operational/Tactical Effects
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EBO Methodology
Effects Strategy Development
Desired Outcomes/ Effects
Actions Identification
Effects Execution
Effects Assessment
Assessment of Complex Adaptive Environment
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Effects-Based Analysis (EBA)

• It provides in-depth understanding of complex and
  adaptive environment
• All actors and their relationships are analyzed
• Real-time monitoring of the environment
• Predictive simulation of the environment

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Effects-Based Planning (EBP)

• It focuses on linkages of actions to effects to
  objectives
• Instead of attrition-based EBP is results-based
• Objectives and desired effects and the most
  appropriate actions to achieve them are
  identified
• Consideration or mitigation of undesired effects
• Collaborative working is necessary

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EBP
What How Why
Identification and Analysis of Key Nodes
Commanders Intent
Mission Analysis
With (resources) Who Where When Mechanism (why)
COG/TSA Analysis
COA Effects Analysis
COA Selected
Covert COA to OPARD
Dynamic Execution Order
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EBP

• Commanders intent is the beginning of EBP.
• Mission analysis is the process of where
  objectives, desired effects, specified, and
  implied tasks, constraints and restrains and
  other elements of information start.
• Identification and analysis of key elements
  provides list of condition set required to
  achieve objective
• Course of Action (COA) analysis enables
  allocation of resources
• Center of Gravity (COG) and Target System
  Analysis (TSA) provides objects for the
  commanders desired effects. It enables to
  discover vulnerabilities

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Effects-Based Execution (EBE)

• It is a collaborative management activity which
  realization of effects in accordance with the
  output of EBP can be seen
• It includes management of undesired effects
• It requires agility-agile organizations,
  structures and processes
• It should be operable in variable environmental
  resolution

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Effects-Based Assessment (EBAs)

• Evaluation of success in realizing effects
• It uses quantitative and qualitative methods
• Quality of an action is assessed
• Level to which desired effect relation to that
  action is realized is identified
• Progress toward objective is assessed
• Effectiveness estimations are done

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EBAs

• COA Assessment
• This process begins before tasks are executed.
  This assessment process occurs largely war
  gaming. The process calculates the probability of
  attaining commanders intent in terms of criteria
  such as adequacy, completeness, feasibility, time
  to attain and probability of friendly losses. It
  gives feedback and useful information to the
  commander for decision-making

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EBAs

• Combat and Campaign Assessment
• It is a horizontal process. It enables a
• commander richer view of operations. It starts
• with indicators-evidence of effect, mechanism
• or action. Combat assessment focus on direct
• effects and actions at physical effect level.
• Campaign assessment extents this to involve
• indirect, complex and cumulative behavioral
• effects. It uses tradeoff analysis and models
• cause/effect relationship for a given campaign
  over
• time

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Why is EBO important?

• Actors, their relationships and the environment
  has been building more complex adaptive systems
• An influence in complex adaptive system can
  create secondary or undesired effects
• Need for finding less constructive way/action for
  creating same effect
• Reduces the likelihood of generating
  counter-productive effects since every proposed
  action will be analyzed with regard to all of the
  effects it might produce.
• Allows several components to contribute to a
  given effect

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Why is EBO important?

• In traditional way measures is easy to see and
  easy to measure but they but they do not describe
  the linkage between actions and strategic
  outcomes.
• The focus is not on the tool, but what the tool
  can build
• Effects-based operations is an attempt to
  provide true indications of progress made toward
  achieving objectives
• EBO involves all instrument of national power
  therefore, it is not easy for adversary system to
  adapt to a single form of attack
• Better unity and economy of effort

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EBO Requirements

• Network Analysis
• Risk analysis, mitigation and assessment
• Understanding complex adaptive systems
• Decision making in real-rime
• Agility and synchronization
• Dynamic C2
• Knowledge Management
• Understanding system behavior

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Tools for EBO

• SoS Approach
• Complexity Theory
• Network-Enabled Capability

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SoS Approach for EBO
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PMESII Systems Considerations2

• Executive Legislature Hospitals Political
  Parties Regional Countries
• Broadcast Media
  Judiciary Transportation Networks
  
  Tourism
• Service
  Industry
• Ethnic Groups Crime
  Para-military Forces Defense
  Policy Health Care
  Education
• Insurgents
• Terrorism
  Industrial Technology
  Air Force Communication Systems
  Myths and Values Factories
• Refineries Tribes
  Arms
  Production Family
• Stored Goods Labor Force
  Raw Materials
  Army
  Intelligence Population
• PSTNs
  Culture and Arts Banking
  Seaports C2 Warfare
• NGOs Fossil Fuels
  Animal Herds Arable Land
  Public Facilities Sewage Treatment
  Plants
• Internet

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Complexity Theory for EBO

• It helps in dealing with complexities in planning
• and execution process of EBO and exploit them
• to systems advantage
• Synchronization of the right actions to create
  to desired behavioral effect
• Determination of which cascades of direct and
  indirect effects are likely to stem from our
  actions
• Determination of which effects we have actually
  created.

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Network Centric Contributions to EBO

• Options
• Agility
• Coordination
• Knowledge Mobilization
• Realization of vulnerabilities, weakness,
  strengths, relationships and dependencies in the
  network

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Pitfalls for EBO

• It is difficult to adopt strategic aim,
  objectives, effect, action structure within the
  planning process
• Development of supporting tools
• Modeling, simulation and stimulation, war gaming
  and COA tools
• Management of undesired effects/outcomes
• Common understanding

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Conclusion

• New modeling and simulation tools should be
  adapted to EBO
• More robust ways to measure effectiveness and
  performance are considered
• Agile C2 organizations, structures and process
  should be used
• The challenge is to decide what actions
• produce desired effects over period of time

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Questions?
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References

• http//www.paulrevereafa.org/summit/03/presentatio
  ns/EBO/Effects20Based20Operations20White20Pape
  r.pdf
• http//www.act.nato.int/events/documents/06sosa/2s
  osanatoconf19Jun06SJFHQ.pdf