VAM: Integration

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VAM Integration

• Pim Martens, Bas Amelung, ICIS
• Amersfoort, 18 December 2007

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VAM not targeting the natural sciences
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VAM focuses on social/behavioural aspects
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Where is the threshold? How close are we? What
can be done?
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• The VAM themes
• Vulnerability can be seen as the extent to which
  sectors such as health, economy, and nature and
  biodiversity are susceptible to, or unable to
  cope with climatic change.
• Difference in definition vulnerability between CC
  community and disaster studies (same applies for
  adaptation)
• Complexity of the vulnerability concept
  illustrated by poverty and extreme events
  (Hurricane Mitch)
• Vulnerability assessment framework of climate
  change and tourism

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Vulnerability
The vulnerability theme emerged from the social
and application sciences dealing with
risk-hazards. It invariably addresses the
characteristics of individuals or groups in terms
of their capacity to anticipate, cope with,
resist, and recover from the impacts of a hazard.
Resilience, implying the opposite of
vulnerability, is used in the wider ecological
community (e.g. Folke et al.) to understand how
components of an ecosystem are configured to
enable it to rebound after a perturbation of
stress.
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• The VAM themes
• Adaptation means adapting to a changed or
  changing climate, and covers local, national and
  global aspects. Adaptation is intended to reduce
  the vulnerability of systems.
• Lack of adaptation in IAMs may change the
  desired outcomes of climate change negotiations
• Catastrophes increase dependence of insurance
  sector
• Decreased liability of inland navigation,
  increasing cost of transport

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• The VAM themes
• Mitigation this term can be explained in various
  ways. Sometimes it is seen as the avoidance of
  climate change, whatever strategy may be
  followed. Another choice would be to clearly
  separate mitigation from reduction. Mitigation is
  then limited to the neutralisation of greenhouse
  emissions which have already been produced, such
  as storing CO2 underground or absorbing it by
  planting forests.
• CO2 reduction though the built environment -gt
  complex decision making
• Interactions between policy instruments may be
  complicated and need to be analysed in an
  integrated way
• Climate change liability litigation

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• The VAM themes
• Adaptation-plus-mitigation adaptation and
  mitigation are not alternatives for each other.
  They form two complementary, parallel tracks in
  climate policy. Mitigation is the only
  fundamental solution for the climate problem, but
  adaptation is necessary in order to withstand the
  inevitable consequences of climate change.
• Distributional choices and types of legal
  principles relevant in climate change mitigation
  ( adaptation) law
• Increase coherence and consistency in legal
  system
• Human coping strategies are predicted by
  emotions/exposure
• How multinational corporations deal with the
  variety of emissions trading forms.

Overlapping themes and projects are linked to
more themes!!
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Vulnerability
Litigation
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How vulnerable are we? Instabilities in the Human
Component of the Earth System
How stable is the human component of the Earth
System given large and growing inequalities both
within countries and between countries? How
stable is the human health system? What are the
risks for pandemics, re-emergence of old diseases
and emergence of new diseases? How stable is the
globalising economic system? Can gradual changes
in the biophysical world trigger abrupt changes
in the economic system?

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Can we mitigate/adapt to climate change?

• Connectivity between places and processes
• changes anywhere affect everywhere through
• teleconnections in the Earth and Human System.
• In some cases, global, systemic changes are
  already
• Overtaking local pressures as the dominant
  drivers of change.
• Global climate change interacts with local
  stresses,
• pushing systems across thresholds and leading to
  local disasters.
• Abrupt, catastrophic events
• How can policymakers and resource managers deal
• with low probability, high impact events?

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Synthesizing Disciplines

• Economics
• Sociology
• Law
• Business administration
• Development studies
• Risk management
• ...

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Synthesizing Levels of analysis

• Local
• Regional
• National
• Trans-national
• Global

macro
micro
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Synthesizing Climate change issues

• Climate resources
• Rules and norms
• Economic activity
• Perceptions
• Built environment
• ...

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Extreme EventsCoupling of the Human and
Biophysical Dimensions
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Projects

• Prof. dr. P. Rietveld Climate change impacts on
  inland navigation, an evaluation of adaptation
  strategies to cope with decreasing reliability,
  VUA
• 2. Mw. prof. dr. J.E.M. Kolk 'Getting down to
  business' Economic responses to climate change,
  UvA
• 3. Prof. dr. P. Martens ECLAT-COAST The
  influence of climate weather on tourist demand
  in Europe's coastal zones analysis and
  exploration, UM
• 4. Dr. K. Burger Natural hazards, poverty traps,
  and adaptive livelihoods in Nicaragua, WUR
• 5. Dr. R.B. Dellink Trade-offs between
  adaptation and mitigation and the stability of
  international climate agreements, WUR
• 6. Mw. mr. dr. M.G.W.M. Peeters Distributional
  choices in climate change policy in search of a
  legal framework, UM
• 7. Mw. prof. dr. E.I.L. Vos The Application of
  the Precautionary Principle and Liability Law
  with Respect to Climate Change, UM
• 8. Prof. dr. mr. C.J. Jepma Interactions of
  White certificates for energy efficiency and
  other market instruments in an international
  policy context Can they be effective? A power
  sector case study, UvA
• 9. Mw. dr. ir. D.J.M. Hilhorst Adapting to
  climate-related natural hazards in building rural
  livelihoods in Mutarara District, Mozambique, WUR
  
• 10. Prof. dr. C.J.H. Midden Human Response to
  Warnings of Dangerous Climate Change A Study of
  Flooding Experiences in the Netherlands, TUE
• 11. Dr. K.R.D. Lulofs Diffusion and adoption of
  CO2 reduction measures in the mainstream market
  of the built-up area Reaching beyond the 2010
  Kyoto targets, UT
• 12. Prof. dr. W.M. Lafferty Analysing local
  climate vulnerability and local adaptation
  strategies, UT
• 13. Dr. J.C.J.H. Aerts Risk management and
  insurance under climate change, VUA

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Climate-society links issues and scales
global
trans-national
perceptions
institutions
national
regional
individual
built environment
rules/norms
physical resources
economic activity
climate
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VAM projects
global
trans-national
perceptions
institutions
national
7
10
regional
12
individual
6
3
built environment
11
rules/norms
2
4
13
8
9
1
12
5
3
physical resources
economic activity
climate