DoE Data and Analysis of Commodity Advisory Services

1
DoE Data and Analysis of Commodity Advisory
Services

• Crude oil during late evening trade on
  Tuesday, the private sector major API
  released its weekly inventory report. The
  inventory number showed that crude stocks rose by
  2.63 million barrels for the week ended 7th March
  and were higher than expected. In product-related
  stocks, distillate stocks fell by just 839,000
  barrels, though some support came from the
  gasoline front, where inventories dropped
• 2.15 million barrels. In the more important
  report due this evening from the DoE, we might
  see crude supplies adding by around 2 million
  barrels, a Bloomberg survey shows. However, after
  looking at the API data, we feel there is a
  chance for higher addition in crude supplies
  possible today. Traders would also closely watch
  the refinery utilization rate which usually sees
  a decline during this time of the year.
• In the other stocks factor at Cushing, the
  delivery point for the WTI stocks fell by over a
  million barrels as per the API number. From the
  DoE data last week, stocks slipped by 2.66
  million barrels in to a near two year low of
  32 million for week ended February 28. We
  feel stocks would continue to show a fall
  in Cushing stocks. Nevertheless, traders
  should take note of movement in gulf
  stocks which increasing continuously and
  particularly since the Cushing supplies have
  increased.
• Overall we have been maintaining a broad bearish
  bias into the commodity for last couple of days
  and nothing has changed with regards to the
  broader cues for the commodity today. While the
  API inventory report was mixed, we are not
  expecting any positivism out of the DoE
  report tonight. While global markets activity
  continues to be cautious due to weakness in
  China, we feel crude also would remain subdued
  globally. Only risk remains is something negative
  happening in Ukraine. However, till that time at
  least, we would continue to recommend selling in
  the commodity
• Global market analysis There are a few
  essential events that are currently playing
  out in the whole financial markets which
  cannot be disregarded.
• The continuous Russia-Ukraine tensions
• The Chinese economic slowdown affecting the whole
  world. We believe that these events are in some
  way having a very strong influence on the
  markets.
• From the energy front, crude oil has come back
  down below 100 and this morning is trading at
  99.42 for the WTI benchmarked April futures
  contract at NYMEX. We believe that the higher
  crude stockpiles and Chinese concerns are pulling
  the commodity down and, it is likely that it may
  remain lower for the day. We have the DOE
  petroleum inventory data from the US, which we
  believe will show a good of amount surge in
  stockpiles. So for the day, we hold a bearish
  view on oil. There are no major data due today.
• Commodity Advisory Services
• SELL NATURAL GAS MCX MAR BELOW 280 SL 284.5 TGT
  275
• Today Economic Data Indicators

DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
12.03.14 0520 GE Wholesale Price Index YoY Feb --- -1.7
12.03.14 0520 JN Tertiary Industry Index MoM Jan 0.6 -0.4
12.03.14 1500 JN Consumer Confidence Index Feb 40.0 40.5
12.03.14 1530 UK Trade Balance Jan Yen2300 Yen1026
12.03.14 1530 EC Industrial Production SA MoM Jan 0.5 -0.7
12.03.14 1630 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Jan 1.9 0.5
12.03.14 1730 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar-07 --- 9.4
12.03.14 1730 IN Industrial Production YoY Jan -0.9 -0.6
12.03.14 2330 IN CPI YoY Feb 8.3 8.8