Retail Price Index and Commodity Tips

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Retail Price Index and Commodity Tips
Crude Oil Commodity we had a divergent view in
the two yesterday owing to high movement in the
Rupee. Indian Rupee over the last few days
had been a major driver for local prices
recently and we though with Rupee
continuing appreciate, local prices would
continue to underperform WTI Crude. While we
saw moderate underperformance in local oil, it
too later advanced in-tune to the US
contract. Overall there are not much cues to be
watched for the commodity today as we have no
major data point to be tracked from the US. We
feel oil prices might see ranged movement today
with a number of economic cues from Euro is might
drive some volatility in the afternoon session.
Later in the US hours, though broad bias is
likely to remain positive while traders would
majorly await the API inventory report. Stocks
are expected to show continued drawdown in
Cushing front while crude and gasoline
inventories might also show some decline as we
near the summer driving season. We have a buying
view in the commodity from lower levels
today Global Market Analysis The Asian
equities are trading mostly higher this
morning taking positive cues out of the US stock
markets that ended higher overnight. From the
currency space the dollar index has managed
to claw back from yesterdays 79.88 low and
currently trading firm above the 80 mark.
At the same time the Euro and the pound
sterling are quoting at 1.3712 and 1.6817
levels correspondingly, scarcely any change from
the preceding close. Into the energy basket,
we gave a buying view in the NYMEX oil
backed by decent support from Brent oil while
US inventory expectations are also provided an
upper hand to the black liquid. We would maintain
a buying on dips call in the NYMEX and MCX crude
for the day. Economic data There are a few
numbers from Germany and lot to watch from
the UK. There are no major cues from the US
today Natural Gas Commodity while there were no
major updates for the commodity on Monday, it
went against our call of selling to close the day
higher. We had been maintaining a selling view in
short-term backed by anticipation that usually
stable temperatures in the US during this time of
the year would lead to lower consumption either
for heating or cooling purpose. Effect of
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subdued demand and rise in supply can also
be seen on the inventory front, which
rose for third week as per latest data, with
reading by EIA standing at 105 BCF. While we are
maintaining a similar view for the day as well,
we are adding a risk factor based on the updated
climate and temperature forecast by the US
CPC. The 6-10 days temperature estimate by
CPC depicts increase in warmness and thus
might lead to gradual increase in cooling
demand. While the effect of the same could
only be seen in case the heat waves
enhance we hold a cautiously selling approach
view in the commodity today Commodity Tips Buy
Crude Oil Mcx Jun on Dips near 5985 sl 5950 Tgt
6040 Buy Sugar Ncdex June above 3045 sl 3025 Tgt
3070