What is Food Security

1

Improved Mapping and Spatial Analysis of Food
Security and Poverty in Ecuador
Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical
(CIAT) FAO Ecuador La Fundación Ecuatoriana
de Estudios Ecológicos (EcoCiencia) Oficina de
Planificación de la Presidencia de Ecuador
(ODEPLAN) University of California
Berkeley CIAT Quito/Cassava Biotechnology
Network CIAT Bean Programme
2
What is Food Security ?

• Nutritional requirements
• Access to those requirements
• Security of access over time

3
Food Security and Poverty
4
Measuring Food Security

• Process gt Outcomes
• Shocks Modify Process gt Worse Outcomes
• Policies Modify Process gt Better Outcomes
• Process not understood and heterogeneous
• Intuition and Induction
• Spatial analysis can help
• Measure Outcome

5
Measuring Food Security

• Measure Outcome
• but which one?
• Consumption

6
Ecuador

• El niño and economic crises
• 1/5 of population malnourished (FAO, 1999)
• ¾ of population poor (Larrea, 2001)

7
Project Goals

• Identify how access to food varies spatially
• Identify the linkages between food security and
  the spatial dimensions of the wider
  socio-economic and biophysical environment
• Communicate these insights to decision-makers in
  Ecuador
• Develop cross-scale spatially explicit food
  security model

8
Project Conceptual Framework
Activity1. Workshop
Activity 2. Map Condition
Activity 3. Spatial Analysis
Activity 4. Map Risk
Activity 5. Ground-truthing
Activity 6. Construct Model
9
Activity 1. Workshop

• Purpose
• Define potential determinants of food
  security/poverty
• Develop scenarios for possible futures
• Identify 3 potential case study sites

10
Activity 2. Map Condition

• Purpose
• Preliminary step for further analyses

11
Activity 2. Map Condition

• Existing socio-economic data
• Poverty maps Larrea et al, 1996 Hentschel et
  al 2000 aggregated to Parroquia
• Population Census 1990, 2001 not yet available
• DHS 1987 4713 individuals
• LSMS 1994 survey 4391 households
• Market locations to be defined
• Transport Infrastructure and services (health,
  education) ()
• Qualitative data Rapid rural appraisals, focus
  groups, expert opinion ?

• Existing biophysical data
• Agricultural Census 2000 not yet available
• Survey 1995
• SEAN Land Use Survey (3137 sites) 1991
• Contours ()
• Soils
• Potential land use ()
• Land Use 1994

• Modelled data
• Accessibility to markets and services
• DTM
• Natural hazards drought prone, landslide
  prone, flood prone

12
Activity 3. Spatial Analysis

• Purpose
• Provide insights to decision-makers
• Provide validation of hypotheses for researchers
• Develop methods that are innovative and
  replicable
• Provide inputs to possible futures

(
)

,,
13
Activity 3. Spatial Analysis
14
Activity 4. Map Risk

• Purpose
• Assess the risk status of population, land,
  infrastructure, etc.
• Move from Poverty to Vulnerability
• Provide inputs to simulation models

(
)

15
Activity 5. Ground-truthing

• Purpose
• Analyse coping strategies
• Validate results of spatial analysis

16
Activity 6. Construct Model

• Purpose
• Provide decision-makers with scenarios whose
  effects can be seen as differing possible
  futures

(
)

,,
(
)

,,
17
Activity 6. Construct Model

• Precedents
• CLUE model

18
Communication Web Mapping

• Purpose
• Users will view, query and manipulate project
  maps

Example CIAT-CI-CAF, Condor on the web
19
Summary
Project Weaknesses Data are old and no time
series (yet!) Too costly to study all risk
sources (potential shocks) Too few case study
sites to extrapolate Model is too
ambitious Project Strengths Development of
hypotheses and scenarios with stakeholders Spatial
analysis methods are innovative in
Ecuador Replicability of methods for el niño
2002-2003 and census 2000 Model is ambitious
where we want to go