FSAU Food Security

1
Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) - Somalia
FSAU Food Security Nutrition SSS FSRD
Meeting June 11, 2008
2
Climate
Overall Performance of the Gu Season as of June
10th 2008

• The 2008 Gu season started 3-4 weeks late and
  has ended early
• The temporal and spatial distribution of the Gu
  rains were below normal.
• Good rains Juba, Bay, and parts of Togdher,
  Gedo and central regions received 150mm-200mm
• Poor rains part of Gedo and Bakool, Lower and
  Middle Shabelle regions, Hiran, and parts of
  northeast, most of central regions.
• Hagai rains
• Juba, Bay, and Shabelle regions received good
  Hagai rains which are beneficial for water
  resources, rangeland and standing crops
• Riverine and coastal areas of Juba and Shabelle
  started planting of sesame and maize.
• High input costs and localized conflicts are
  constraining farmers to fully benefit from the
  current good Hagai rains.
• It is anticipated that Gu 08 cereal harvest
  would be below average

3
Climate
Gu Season Rainfall
Estimated Rainfall April 1 - May 31, 08
Percent of Normal Rainfall April 1 - May 31 08
4
Climate
Vegetation Conditions Percent of Normal, May
2008
NDVI Anomaly, May 2008
NOAA CPC FEWS-NET Rainfall Estimate (mm) Based
on Satellite and Rain Gauge Data June 02 08 -
June 08 08
5
Agriculture
Preliminary Indications of Gu Season performance

• Below normal crop establishment due to the late
  onset of the Gu rains (3 4 weeks) with poor
  temporal and spatial distribution of rains in
  April and May.
• Crop establishment varies by region, and is
  considered well below normal in Juba, Shabelle,
  Bakol and Gedo regions, with almost complete crop
  establishment failure in Hiran
• Uneven rainfall distribution lead to uneven and
  ineffective crop emergence establishment
• Replanting during April and May not successful
  due to continuing lack of moisture
• Best Scenario Below normal rain-fed production
  (esp. Juba, Bakol, Shabelle , Gedo, and northwest
  agropastoral
• Worst Scenario Rain-fed crop failure (esp.
  Hiran, parts of Shabelle)
• Good rains were received in last dekad of May and
  first dekad of June resulting in limited
  improvement of standing crops and some
  additional planting of sesame and maize in the
  riverine and coastal areas of Shabelle and Juba
  regions.

6
Markets

• Some slow down in the rate of devaluation of
  Somali Shilling, however still remain at all time
  highs compared to US.
• Somaliland Shilling Stable
• Prices of all cereals (local and imported)
  continue to rise at alarming rates
• ToT cereal to labour and cereal to goat continue
  to be very low

7
Markets
Monthly Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH to USD
8
Local Cereal Prices
Shabelle -Maize Prices
Juba- Maize Prices
Sorghum Belt Sorghum Prices
Central -Rice Prices
9
Commercial Imports
BOSSASSO CEREAL IMPORTS
EL MAAN CEREAL IMPORTS
10
Nutrition
Preliminary Findings for 7 of the 10 Nutrition
Assessments conducted in May 2008
11
Nutrition
Nutrition assessments scheduled for June 2008

• Hiran Riverine LZ
• Hiran Agropastoral LZ
• Bay Agropastoral LZ
• Bakool Agropastoral LZ
• Juba Riverine LZ
• Juba Agropastoral LZ
• Juba Pastoral LZ

12
Gu Seasonal Assessment Timeline
Technical Partner Planning meeting June 13,
2008 Regional Planning Meetings July
1-3, 2008 Regional Fieldwork
July 4-21, 2008 Regional Analysis
Workshop July 2226, 2008 All Team
Meeting Hargeisa July 30Aug 5, 2008