Dr' Matthew C' Larsen

1
Caribbean Islands, Global Change, Water
ResourcesIPCC Fourth Assessment Report
conclusionsand implications for Caribbean islands

• Dr. Matthew C. Larsen
• USGS Chief Scientist for Hydrology
• Chair, U.S. National Committee forUNESCO
  International Hydrological Programme

2
Outline

• IPCC 4th assessment summary
• UNESCO IHP activities
• Caribbean island hydrology and water resource
  challenges
• IPCC conclusions
• Summary

3
2007 Nobel Peace Prizeawarded jointlyto IPCC
Al Gore
4
IPCC 4th Assessment Report summary

• Possible temperature rise ranges between 1.1 and
  4.5 deg C by 2100
• Likely to lead to increased intensity of tropical
  storms
• Very likely that parts of the world will see an
  increase in the number of heat waves
• Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43 cm by 2100
• Increased flood and storm damage
• 30 loss in global coastal wetlands
• Increased coastal flooding
• Decreased water availability increased drought
  in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
• 100s of M of people exposed to increased water
  stress
• Increased water availability in humid tropics
• Climate change and sea-level rise are significant
  challenges for islands
• A number of response options available
• A combination of adaptation and mitigation is our
  best strategy

Slide sources O R Davidson, Co-Chair, IPCC,
Working group III, Technical Support Unit, and R
J Nichols P P Wong, Lead Authors, IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report Chap. 6.
5
Outline

• IPCC 4th assessment summary
• UNESCO IHP activities
• Caribbean island hydrology and water resource
  challenges
• IPCC conclusions
• Summary

6
Regional UNESCO IHP activities focused on climate
change water resources
IHP publication Climate variability and
change hydrological impacts Demuth, S. et al.
(eds), 2006, IAHS Publication no. 308, IAHS
Press, Institute of Hydrology, 707
p. Proceedings of the Fifth FRIEND World
Conference held in Havana, Cuba, November 2006
117 papers from over 30 countries http//www.ir
c.nl/page/33104 FRIEND Flow Regimes from
International Experimental and Network Data
7
Regional UNESCO IHP activities focused on climate
change water resources

• UNESCO IHP funded study by CEHI (Caribbean
  Environmental Health Institute, St. Lucia)
• Evaluate use of desalination technology in
  Caribbean islands
• - Define economic, technical, legal and
  environmental challenges

http//www.unesco.org.uy/phi/biblioteca/bitstream/
123456789/418/1/0506.pdf
8
Regional UNESCO IHP activities focused on climate
change water resources
9
Regional UNESCO IHP activities focused on climate
change water resources
10
Outline

• IPCC 4th assessment summary
• UNESCO IHP activities
• Caribbean island hydrology and water resource
  challenges
• IPCC conclusions
• Summary

11
Global water budget

• Only 1/3 of global precipitation occurs over
  land challenge for small islands
• 13 of the amount of water precipitated over land
  is generally resident in the atmosphere
• Residence time of atmospheric moisture is about 1
  week

12
Caribbean hydrology water resources

• Much of annual rainfall is episodic, delivered
  by tropical disturbances
• Runoff is rapid and little SW storage exists-
  GW resources constrained by limited aquifers,
  saline intrusion, karst fractured rock geology
• Most of Caribbean region has sufficient water
  but -- availability of safe water is an
  issue -- population growth has increased water
  demand
• -- water quality problems degradation
  associated with agricultural practices, solid
  waste management, mining, and industry

13
Caribbean island water resource challenges

• High rates of resource consumption
• Much of annual rain delivered in few days
• Limited storage capacity
• Climatic extremes
• Climatic uncertainty non-stationarity

Satellite image of Caribbean at night
14
Climatic extremes
La Plata Reservoir during drought, Puerto Rico,
1994
15
Climatic extremes
Peak streamflow over Loiza Dam, Puerto Rico,
Hurricane Hortense, September 1996
16
Climatic uncertainty
Rainfall in Puerto Rico annual deviation from
norm
Mean, 20th century 1660 mm
1990s mean/century mean 89
17
Caribbean drought has regional expression
18
Outline

• IPCC 4th assessment summary
• UNESCO IHP activities
• Caribbean island hydrology and water resource
  challenges
• IPCC conclusions
• Summary

19
IPCC 4th assessment conclusions

• IPCC Warming of the climate system is
  unequivocal
• Evidence
• Observations of increases in global average air
  and ocean temperatures
• Widespread melting of snow and ice
• Rising global mean sea level

Slide source O R Davidson, Co-Chair, IPCC,
Working group III, Technical Support Unit,
Paris, France, June 29, 2007
20
Slide source Martin Manning, Director, IPCC,
Working group I, Support Unit
21
Slide source Martin Manning, Director, IPCC,
Working group I, Support Unit
22
Slide source Martin Manning, Director, IPCC,
Working group I, Support Unit
23
Slide source Martin Manning, Director, IPCC,
Working group I, Support Unit
24
Slide source Martin Manning, Director, IPCC,
Working group I, Support Unit
25
and island

Slide source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4), Chap. 6, R J Nichols P P Wong, Lead
Authors
26
Cumulative tracks of all tropical cyclones,
1985-2005. Caribbean island hydrology benefits
from, and is dependent on rainfall delivered by
tropical storms. However--storm hazard may
increase.
Slide source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4), Chap. 6, R J Nichols P P Wong, Lead
Authors
27
Slide source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,
Chap. 6, R J Nichols P P Wong, Lead Authors
28
Climate change impacts will vary by extent of
adaptation, rate of temperature change, and
socio-economic pathway
Slide source O R Davidson, Co-Chair, IPCC,
Working group III, Technical Support Unit,
Paris, France, June 29, 2007
29
Slide source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4), Chap. 6, R J Nichols P P Wong, Lead
Authors
30
Slide source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,
Chap. 6, R J Nichols P P Wong, Lead Authors
31
Slide source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4), Chap. 6, R J Nichols P P Wong, Lead
Authors
32
Slide source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4), Chap. 6, R J Nichols P P Wong, Lead
Authors
33
Outline

• IPCC 4th assessment summary
• UNESCO IHP activities
• Caribbean island hydrology and water resource
  challenges
• IPCC conclusions
• Summary

34
IPCC 4th Assessment Report summary

• Possible temperature rise ranges between 1.1 and
  4.5 deg C by 2100
• Likely to lead to increased intensity of tropical
  storms
• Very likely that parts of the world will see an
  increase in the number of heat waves
• Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43 cm by 2100
• Increased flood and storm damage
• 30 loss in global coastal wetlands
• Increased coastal flooding
• Decreased water availability increased drought
  in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
• 100s of M of people exposed to increased water
  stress
• Increased water availability in humid tropics
• Climate change and sea-level rise are significant
  challenges for islands
• A number of response options available
• A combination of adaptation and mitigation is our
  best strategy

Slide sources O R Davidson, Co-Chair, IPCC,
Working group III, Technical Support Unit, and R
J Nichols P P Wong, Lead Authors, IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report Chap. 6.
35
Slide source Martin Manning, Director, IPCC,
Working group I, Support Unit
36
Thank you

• Matt LarsenUSGS Chief Scientist for
  Hydrologymclarsen_at_usgs.gov
• IPCC web site www.ipcc.ch
• UNESCO IHP web site http//www.unesco.org/water/
• USGS information see www.water.usgs.gov