Trends in Households and Possible Demand Effects on Housing in America

1
Trends in Households and Possible Demand Effects
on Housing in Americas Cities
Demand 2
Supply
Demand

• Peter Hayward
• University of CaliforniaSanta Barbara

2
Project Plan

• Analyze possible demand changes for city housing
  due to the influence of changes in households
• Relate preference surveys with forecasted changes
  of household ages and household types
• Set up weighted analyses for household cohorts
• Compare cohorts

3
Preference Surveys

• American LIVES Fannie Mae National Housing
  Survey NAHB What Home Buyers Want Survey
• Express typical American homebuyer preferences
• Statistical breakdown of preferences
• By household age and household type
• Percent that prefers each type of housing
  (suburban ranch, city townhouse, city SFH, etc)
• Mean and standard deviation of housing
  preferences

4
Household Preferences by Age
5
Preference Surveys (2)

• Limitations
• Not regionalized
• Not expanded preferences
• Only sample of population
• Only looking at household ages and types
• Preferences are not consumption

6
Household Trends

• U.S. Census Bureau
• Projections to 2010 absolutes and percents
• Household age and type
• Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Mobility rates
• Homeownership Rates
• Household age and type

7
Household Trends (2)

• Weighted analysis
• (cohorts projected growth)(mobility
  rate)(homeownership rate)
• Statistical breakdown of weighted household
  cohorts
• Positive and negative mean
• Standard deviation
• Cohorts with discernable effects on demand
• Limitations
• Outside considerations (government intervention,
  disease, etc.)
• Housing constructions mirror household growth

8
Relating Household Trends and Preferences

• Four Outcomes
• Growing Household Cohort (Above Positive Mean)
  Higher than Average Preference for City Housing
  Higher Demand
• Growing Household Cohort (Above Positive Mean)
  Lower than Average Preference for City Housing
  Lower Demand
• Shrinking Household Cohort (Below Negative Mean)
  Higher than Average Preference for City Housing
  Lower Demand
• Shrinking Household Cohort (Below Negative Mean)
  Lower than Average Preference for City Housing
  Higher Demand

9
Preferences by Household Age
10
Further Analysis and Conclusions

• Further analysis
• Greater than 1 standard deviation above below
  means
• Greater than 2 standard deviations above below
  means
• Conclusions and impacts
• Not exact demand statistics but general idea of
  future changes
• Understanding of future social landscape of
  Americas cities
• May aid contractors, developers, local regional
  governments
• Replication of methodology

11
Acknowledgements

• University of CaliforniaSanta Barbara
• Geography Department
• Dr. Reginald Golledge
• United States Census Bureau
• Joint Center for Housing Studies
• American LIVES
• Fannie Mae
• National Association of Homebuyers