About Mobile VCE

1
Wireless Telecomms in China
Korea Assessment, Conclusion, Recommendations W
alter Tuttlebee Mobile VCE
2
Assessment Conclusions

• Lessons to benefit UK Trade Investment ?
• Policy Objectives Characteristics (in China /
  Korea)
• Policy Implementation Outcomes (in China /
  Korea)
• Implications for the UK
• What works in Asia wont work here, but
• the UK has different strengths on which we need
  to build
• Recognising the Issues
• Clear Lessons
• Recent Changes in UK Policy Environment
• Building for the Future what could or should be
  done ?

3
Assessment Conclusions

• Policy Objectives Implementation in C/K
• Clear, similar, but different, national policy
  objectives
• Economically and socially driven
• Looking beyond industrialisation to the knowledge
  economy, with major focus on (and success in)
  developing RD base
• Common Implementation characteristics
• Technology innovation driven by future services,
  not in isolation
• Specific service and technology priorities,
  jointly owned by Government and Industry
• Specific, long-term, RD programmes, jointly
  funded by Government and Industry at very
  substantial levels
• Commitment to and mechanisms for
  commercialisation
• Consistent implementation over time, with ability
  to make mid-course corrections and to live with
  conflicts and inconsistencies

4
Assessment Conclusions

• Policy Outcomes C/K (1)
• Technology Investment
• In both countries the clear lead and support
  given by Government has been matched by industry
  commitment in terms of financial investment and,
  in the case of China, significant foreign direct
  investment.
• Technology Innovation
• Korean and Chinese industry and research
  institutes today hold significant patent
  portfolios in WiMAX, TD-SCDMA and 4G as a direct
  result of these investments, reducing their
  future reliance on overseas IPR
• Standards
• Both countries contributed large volumes of
  technical results, creating an opportunity for
  future licensing exploitation. Both will submit
  strong technical proposals in response to the
  2008 ITU call wrt 4G, substantiated by
  experimental testbed results.

5
Assessment Conclusions

• Policy Outcomes C/K (2)
• Domestic Market Creation
• Korea - has successfully created a new mobile TV
  service for its consumers and a new market for
  its own manufacturers, of 4.2m handsets to March
  2007, a 9 population penetration. Its industry
  is strongly positioned to address the global
  mobile TV opportunity, irrespective of technical
  standard (DMB, DVB-H or MediaFLO).
• China - is poised to use the Olympic opportunity
  to create a domestic 3G market for its TD-SCDMA
  technology, which will initially be dominated by
  its own local industry. Longer term, if the
  market does become significant, it is possible
  that a few key international players, such as
  Siemens, will also be beneficiaries, with local
  companies losing market share, as has occurred in
  the 2G handset market.

6
Assessment Conclusions

• Policy Outcomes C/K (3)
• Exports
• Korea has achieved the export targets specified
  in its IT 8-3-9 plan, apparently ahead of
  schedule. Export contribution from WiBro to date
  is minimal, Mobile TV has been greater, and WCDMA
  handset exports significantly greater.
• China has enjoyed growth in telecoms exports,
  although its policies have addressed technologies
  that have yet to be commercialised.
• Industry Implications
• Telecom Manufacturers continue to play a growing
  role in both countries economies, at a time when
  counterparts in US/ Europe have seen significant
  cost pressures and consequent mergers (eg
  Nokia-Siemens, Alcatel-Lucent).
• The fact that Telecom Operators in in both
  countries are now looking overseas for growth is
  a new trend, not so evident in 2004

7
Assessment Conclusions

• Policy Outcomes C/K (4)
• Regulation
• In both countries the historic separate
  regulation of broadcasting and telecoms is
  causing tensions in the era of service
  convergence. Whilst this has been managed to
  date, structural changes in regulation may be
  anticipated within the next few years, if both
  countries are to fully capitalise on their policy
  investments this will erode an advantage
  currently enjoyed by the UK which we could
  exploit.

8
Assessment Conclusions

• Implications for the UK
• Telecom manufacturing in the UK is a minimal
  activity by comparison with Korea or China, but
• Telecoms is an essential enabler of the digital
  economy, which we neglect at our peril. The UK
  has
• World-leading telecom operators broadcasters,
  with mature capabilities to operate global
  networks and services.
• Great innovation the UKs light touch
  regulation, (free market vs control), leads to
  service innovation, enabled by cooperation,
  creativity and commercial deals, as well as
  technology.
• World leading research - University education and
  research in telecoms remains remarkably strong in
  the UK - and has contributed to most telecom
  manufacturers having RD in the UK.
• A need for a technology capability for
  network-centric warfare

9
Assessment Conclusions

• Recognising the Issues Opportunity
• Every country recognises that ICT is the enabler
  of the digital economy including Korea, China
  the UK
• but how to seize the opportunity ?
• 2004 Report Conclusions
• Strategic action is urgently needed if the UK is
  to retain its role as a global knowledge-based
  economyover the next decade.
• It did not propose the adoption of Asian policies
• It did identify the need to develop a clear and
  coordinated UK response and identified the
  opportunity for the UK to provide a lead in
  Europe.
• It stimulated much discussion amongst UK industry
  players, but at that time met with limited
  resonance in Government

10
Assessment Conclusions

• Lessons from 2007
• Reinforced these earlier conclusions, adding new
  evidence
• Clear objectives have shaped straightforward
  policy goals in China Korea, accompanied by
  specific objectives
• Detailed approaches to achieving these goals have
  been developed through Industry/Government
  analysis and consensus. These approaches have
  been implemented consistently over several years
• Whilst not without conflicts and inconsistencies,
  and despite less than 100 success, these
  policies have moved both countries significantly
  closer to their objectives
• Tangible economic benefits and international
  recognition, for both Industry and Government of
  these nations, has been realised

11
Assessment Conclusions

• The UK Environment The Right Time
• Many parts of UK Government now recognise the
  issues and have begun to take independent action
  the need for this to become joined-up is also
  recognised
• Technology Strategy the establishment of the
  industry-led Technology Strategy Board. The TSB
  has shown clear drive and initiative,
  establishing specific new priorities and
  mechanisms.
• Research Impact an escalating priority has been
  given to the economic impact of publicly funded
  research by Treasury.
• University-Industry Engagement - EPSRC has
  developed new mechanisms, such as Strategic
  Partnerships with industry, to increase knowledge
  transfer
• Ofcom has endeavoured to take a converged
  approach to the regulation of communications and
  broadcasting, whilst increasingly recognising the
  impact of spectrum on economies of scale and
  national competitiveness
• UK TI Recognise need for refreshed strategies

12
Assessment Conclusions

• Starting the Debate
• What might be a possible strategic response to
  strengthen the UKs future economic prospects?
• What might be an appropriate (simple) national
  objective for the UK?
• Within the framework of recent UK developments
  how might this be achieved?
• We want to stimulate a debate involving
  Government, Industry and other key players, to
  accelerate the development of such shared goals
  and approaches
• Policy objectives jointly owned by Industry
  Government, and
• Implementation actions that logically flow from
  these

13
Assessment Conclusions

• Building on National Strengths
• Global Operators
• Telcos (Vodafone, BT, Inmarsat) and Broadcasters
  ( BBC, BSkyB) players who compete and
  collaborate at the leading edge of service
  convergence and innovation
• A Strong Research Base
• Internationally recognised University research
  capability, RD centres of many of the major
  international communications manufacturers, and
  collaborative research mechanisms across borders
  cultures (Mobile VCE)
• Forward-looking Spectrum Telecommunications
  Regulation
• Highly developed Service Economy Creative
  Industries
• Clear Government Commitment to strengthening and
  exploiting the science base
• The strongest for a long while

14
Assessment Conclusions

• What is Needed ?
• A Clear Agreed Objective
• with full Industry and Government commitment,
  both in principle and financially, flowing out of
  consensus
• Structures to facilitate effective dialogue
  between Industry and Government
• to create detailed implementation approaches,
  building upon the agreed objective
• Mechanisms to support Technology Pull-through
• eg enabling experimental trials of innovative
  research for not-yet-proven business cases
  (but not basket cases !)
• Coordination of Regulatory and Industry Policy
• requiring the involvement of Ofcom, BERR and
  other agencies and bodies so that successful
  trials can be rapidly commercialised
• Engagement of Multiple Government Departments /
  Agencies
• to include all who can benefit

15
Assessment Conclusions

• Mechanisms ?
• The Knowledge Transfer Network ?
• One possible forum for industry dialogue however
  implementation clearly exceeds the TSB-defined
  remit of a KTN and requires much wider Government
  participation, support and funding.
• An Innovation Platform ?
• Possibly but not in isolation
• Wireless telecoms is a fundamental
  transformational capability for many (all ?) of
  our industries
• The integration of the above discrete steps into
  an overall national wireless telecoms initiative
  could be highly effective in underpinning,
  working with and providing a technology enabling
  framework for existing and emerging Innovation
  Platforms, leveraging wireless, telecom and other
  ICT technology across them all, impacting
  multiple industries and attracting inward
  investment.

16
Assessment Conclusions

• A Way Forward ? Lets start talking
• Other countries will, in all probability, set the
  standards agenda for products and manufacturing
  for future telecoms such as 4G
• China and other Asian countries have invested and
  continue to invest both significantly and
  strategically in ICT, in a logical and consistent
  manner, harmonising Government and Industry
  activity and perspectives to grow manufacturing
  exports.
• The UK has a historic opportunity to prepare
  itself for the next decade by leveraging wireless
  telecoms, to the benefit of our diverse and
  strong service economy, creating an environment
  to retain and attract manufacturers RD inward
  investment
• The UK should grasp this opportunity for
  strategic coordination and thereby ensure a
  significant participation in the next stage of
  the wireless telecoms and wider industry
  evolution.

17
Thank you
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