Climate Change and Food Security

1
Climate Change and Food Security in the
Caribbean Using scenario analyses for decision
support
Adrian Trotman Chief of Applied Meteorology and
Climatology (Ag) Caribbean Institute for
Meteorology and Hydrology
2
State of agriculture and foodin the Caribbean

• Agricultures contribution to the economies of
  CARICOM states have been on the decline since the
  1970s
• Net agricultural trade moved from being a surplus
  of US2.9 billion in 1988 to a deficit of US2.2
  billion in 2004 (CARICOM donor conference draft
  document 2007)
• Losses in preferential markets for traditional
  crops in Europe
• Except for Guyana and Belize, CARICOM states
  became net importers of food
• The Jagdeo Initiative, seeks to breathe new life
  into the agriculture and related sectors

3
Recent Climate-related Impacts

• Flooding in Guyana in 2005 - affected 37 of the
  population, 34 deaths, approximately US55
  million in damage to the agricultural sector. A
  similar, but smaller-scale event the following
  year resulted in total losses to the sector of
  US22.5 million (ECLAC 2005, ECLAC 2006).
• In Grenada, damage to the agricultural sector by
  Hurricane Ivan (2004) totalled almost US40
  million. Damage to the nutmeg sub-sector concern
  for 30,720 employees (OECS 2004). Spice
  industry set back 10 years.
• An intense drought event in 1999-2000 caused US6
  million in crop losses Jamaica (Jamaica
  Information Service, Ministry of Finance 2007).
• Coral reef deterioration, fish kills

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Projected Climate Change

• 90 chance that temperatures will rise across the
  Caribbean - increase in the annual temperature
  could be in the range of 2 to 2.5oC
• likely (66) that sea levels will rise in the
  Caribbean during this century
• rainfall is likely (66) to decrease in the
  Greater Antilles (particularly in June August)
  however, projected decrease in annual
  precipitation in the region of 5 to 15 in
  Caribbean basin
• WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
  LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED MORE OFTEN

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The Caribbean Region highlighting CARICOM members
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Key Caribbean climate and other GEC issues, food
security policy priorities and development goals
Caribbean

• Key Policy Goals
• Increasing food self-sufficiency
• Improving trade policies competitiveness
• Implementing CSM and the CSME

• Issues
• Increasing extreme events
• Changes in sea currents level
• Ridge-to-Reef impacts of land degradation

Example Stakeholders National ag, env tourism
ministries Regional IGOs (CARICOM, IICA) Regional
research bodies (FAO, CCCCC, CIMH, UWI, CARDI)
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Analysing Food Systems in context of drivers and
feedbacks
Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs
Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing
Packaging Distributing Retailing Consuming
GEC DRIVERS Changes in Land cover soils,
Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability means,
Water availability quality, Nutrient
availability cycling, Biodiversity, Sea
currents salinity, Sea level
Natural DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to Food
Security, Environmental Security, and other
Societal Interests
DRIVERSInteractions
Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in Demographics,
Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural
context Science Technology
Food Access
Food Utilisation
Food Availability
EnvironCapital
Social Welfare
Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social
cohesion
Source Zurek, M. Ericksen, P. (2006) A
Conceptual Framework Describing Food System GEC
Interactions. In prep.
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GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Funded by
ICSU / UNESCO / US State Dept
3 main starting issues
Extreme weather, climate, sea level
Land use esp. ridge-to-reef
Regional governance CSME Preferential trade
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GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Who was
involved?

• 30 people 2 workshops writing tasks over 6
  months
• Social and natural scientists from regional
  research institutions (e.g. UWI, CIMH)
• Social and natural scientists from national
  research institutions (e.g. universities,
  national labs)
• Policy-makers from regional agencies (e.g.
  CARICOM, IICA)
• Policy-makers from national agencies (e.g. Min of
  Ag)
• International agencies (e.g. FAO, UNEP)
• GECAFS scenarios group

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GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosBased on the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
World Development
Globalization
Regionalization
Proactive Reactive
Environmental Management
Source Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)
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Main Climate-related Drivers Same across the
GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios
Source GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the
Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
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Main Socioeconomic Drivers Differ across the
GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios

• Population growth fertility rates
• Life expectancy Age structure
• Migration (rural-urban)
• Economic Growth
• Equity
• Financial flows
• Unemployment
• Regional Cooperation
• Investments into agri science technology
• Investments into human capital
• Dominant agricultural food policy
• Subsidies

• Import / Export Regulations Focus
• (Relative) Price of food
• Transport cost
• Tourism
• Kind of Governance, Political Agendas
• Emergence of new markets (India, China Green
  markets)
• US - Cuba Situation
• Security situation

Source GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the
Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
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Other GEC Drivers Consequently differ across the
GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios (example for land use
change)
Source GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the
Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
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Analysis of Food Security Outcomes Components
Elements (reminder)
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Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES
1 Developments described per scenario for
each Food Security element (example for Food
Access component)
Source GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the
Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
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Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES
2 Developments systematically assessed per
scenario for each Food Security element (example
for Food Access component)
Source GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the
Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
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Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES 3 Assessments
plotted based on FS concepts
per scenario
Production

Food Safety
Distribution
Increase

0
_
Inter-RegionalExchange
Social Value
Decrease
_ _
Intra-Caribbean Exchange
NutritionalValue
Affordability
Preference
Allocation
Source GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the
Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
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GECAFS Scenarios Approach key outcomes

• raises awareness of GEC with policy-makers and
  other stakeholders
• raises awareness of policy issues and process
  with GEC researchers
• integrates information from different fields to
  explore possible developments
• systematically structures debate relating to
  environmental issues and food security
• builds science-policy regional team based on
  shared vision, understanding and trust
• tests downscaling methods
• will be extended to other regions under GEF
  proposal (in prep)