Taking Action on Climate Change and Peak Oil

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Taking Action on Climate Change and Peak Oil

• The First Branch Sustainability Project

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Who we are

• Learning to live better with out fossil fuel.

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Taking your pulse

• How many of you think
• Climate change is real?
• Are undecided?
• Do not think it is happening?
• That mans activities have a significant
  influence on it?
• Are undecided?

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Taking your pulse

• Think it is an immediate crisis that needs
  dealing with now?
• Will you commit to telling you tell friends and
  neighbors that?
• Want more information?

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Proposed Addenda for acceptance

• A better understanding climate change and climate
  change. 15-30 minutes
• What is our typical VT household fossil fuel
  usage now? 3 minutes
• Personal and community actions that you or groups
  of us could adopt. 15 minutes
• Taking your pulse again 10 minutes
• Are you ready to set the goal of taking The first
  Branch to carbon neutral by 2020?
• Are you ready to help?

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Steps to take us to a fossil fuel free life

• Where can the biggest immediate savings in fossil
  fuel usage be had?
• What do we need to do to position our selves to
  make even more complicated changes in the
  future?
• This can be a business opportunity, fun and a
  community building activity)
• Brainstorm
• Prioritize
• Set up working committees.
• 
  40 minutes

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Climate change and energy policy as I see it
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Climate Change

• Man is responsible for burning sever hundreds of
  thousands of years of stored sunlight in less
  than 50 years by fueling our economy with fossil
  fuel
• CO2 levels are now one third higher than at any
  time in the last 400,000 years (before man and
  since the dinosaurs).

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• The temperature effect of this has not yet been
  felt. It takes app 100 years for new atmospheric
  CO2 to come into equilibrium with the earth.
  Scientists have tended to be very conservative
  with the magnitude of the projected results for
  fear of not being believed.
• If we carrying on with business as usual by
  continuing to burn fossil fuel the Stern report
  is projecting 3.6?F 5.4?F over the next 50
  years.

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The bad news

• I believe that just the 80ppm of CO2 already
  released could take us well beyond the 2 degree
  C predictions by the end of the century. The
  Stern reports that a 5.4 degree F (3 degree C)
  would result 20- 50 species extinction. Climate
  change-warming is in its infancy but we are
  seeing the hallmarks of it in extreme weather
  events record wetness in spring and summer of
  2006, record warm fall and record breaking storms
  across the country in January.
• None of this takes into account the positive
  feedback loops that could cause major step
  changes. This is grim stuff but since we are
  looking at a 100 year time line we have time to
  get busy and make a difference.

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The good news

• We can get completely off fossil fuel. If things
  are not as grim as I am predicting we will still
  have become self-sufficient with more s staying
  here and will not have a need for as much
  military nor as distorted a foreign policy.
• More on this later.

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Energy supply

• 80 of the worlds energy comes from oil, natural
  gas and coal.
• Most of our transportation is now done with oil.
• In 1970 the US went from an oil exporter to an
  oil importer as our fields stopped keeping up
  with our demand (Peak Oil).
• In 2004 we imported 75 of the oil we consumed.

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What is Peak Oil
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What is Peak Oil?

• Peak Oil is the point at which we can no longer
  increase the amount of oil we pump from a
  particular region (be that the United States,
  North America, or the Earth).

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Hubberts Curve

• Based on his model, in 1956 geologist, M. King
  Hubbert predicted that oil production in the US
  lower 48 states would peak in the early 1970s.

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Cant We Just Find Some More?

• Its highly unlikely
• Peak discovery typically precedes peak production
  by 25 to 40 years
• World oil discovery peaked in the mid-1960s and
  has been declining ever since

Source Post Carbon Institute
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SoYou Cant Produce More OilIf You Havent
Found It!
Oil Discovery (3 year average past and
projected 1930-2050
ASPO
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Tight supplies high prices

• A 5 change in oil and gasoline usage will result
  in a dollar a gallon change at the pump. This
  can have a profound effect on our personal
  finances and the economy as a whole.

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As things run out

• As oil fields become depleted it takes more
  energy to extract the oil. It now takes 5 times
  the energy it did in 1930 and this energy cost
  for production will continue to rise as will the
  price of oil.
• Natural gas may also be peaking. Julian Darley
  who wrote High Noon for Natural Gas thinks so.
  That leaves coal which delivers far more
  greenhouse gas per unite of energy delivered than
  the rest of the fossil fuels but there is
  approximately a 150 years supply. It takes app
  12 units of coal energy to deliver one 1930
  energy unit of oil.

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Where is this taking us?

• Oil and gas should be conserved for high value
  uses for the generations to come and we should
  create alternatives to our current supplies and
  consumption habits.
• 14 of the average Vermont households income
  went to energy costs in August of 2004. In the
  spring of 2006 it was up to 25. As oil peaks it
  could go to 45.

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Getting back in control

• Conservation and development of other sources of
  energy will reduce demand.
• Reducing our demand will level this curve out and
  replacing our use of oil and propane with locally
  grown products, conservation and renewables will
  make a positive impact on our pocketbooks as well
  as making a big dent in climate change. It is
  the moral and responsible thing to do

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Taking your pulse

• How many of you
• Want to do something personally or as a community
  to move towards energy independence?
• Feel that you need more information to begin
  taking action?

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Personal actions you could take

• House Envelope
• Eliminate air leaks Install an auto setback
  thermostat to lower temps when
• Consider making some rooms cool.
• Curtain windows, especially north facing ones.
• Close some outside doors for the winter and seal
  or insulate.
• If less than 6 of attic insulation add more.
• Consider replacing windows with energy efficient
  ones.
• Burn cord wood or pellets made of wood or grass.
  Pellet burning unites that replace the oil burner
  part of your furnace will be available.
• If building new make it energy efficient.
  Properly designed they can save you a bundle over
  the life of the house.

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Transportation

• Combine trips.
• Improve your average fuel economy
• Have multiple vehicles? Drive the one that gets
  the best mileage. Can you commute less? Bike or
  walk some places its good for your health as
  well. Cars are most inefficient when first
  started up.
• Fly less
• Plan ahead for a plug-in car or other alternative
  fuel vehicle.

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Hot water

• Add an insulating blanket to your current heater
  Heating with wood consider adding a hot water
  loop.
• A solar hot water heater will last the life of
  the house and can pay for its self in 10 years or
  less.
• Old hot water heater move to a tank-less propane
  unit.
• Dont forget to use energy star appliances and
  low flow shower heads and faucets.

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Food

• Conventional agriculture and the transportation
  to bring food to market uses 30 of Americas
  fuel. The average market basket travels 1,600
  miles, the average local food travels 45 miles.
  Buy from local low energy organic farmers and
  from local stores when you can.
• Consider a growing box for winter greens and
  herbs. Grow some of your own veggies.
• Put some local meat in your freezer.
• Lay off the bottled water. Filter your tap water
  instead.

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Electricity

• Plan on costs to run over 24 cents per KWH when
  the current Vermont contracts run out.
• Use compact fluorescents in all the lights that
  are on a lot. Each one will save a barrel of oil
  over its life.
• Put power surge strips at your entertainment and
  computer centers and turn them off when not in
  use.

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Electricity

• Turn off lights when you are not in the room.
• Avoid electric space heating and water pipe or
  roof edge heaters that are on all the time.
• Line dry your clothes at least some of them
• Dish washers that run a hot water temperature
  booster eat power.
• Borrow a watt hour meter from you electric
  company.
• Look at the annual cost of operation tags when
  buying new.
• Consider generating your own electricity

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Further energy projects

• Manage your land for the sustainable production
  of cellulose for heating pellets or for a
  cellulosic ethanol plant to produce
  transportation fuel.
• Support the research and development of many new
  science technologies that show great promise but
  are as yet unproven. This can be done personally
  or by putting pressure on the federal government
  or on the state to join together with other
  states to make this happen.

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Usage for average VT household

• Heat 950 gallons
• Transportation 720 gallons
• Hot water 369 gallons
• Fuel in our food 400 gallons

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Reductions to target now

• Tighten envelope 20 savings
• Pellet furnace 0 gallons usage
• Solar Hot water heater 70 savings
• Wood stove loop 50 savings
• Combine trips drive thoughtfully 25
  savings

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Reductions to target later

• Be ready for group net metering through education
  and sight surveys. Get projects that do not
  require group net metering started.
• Community wind and hydro Make a plan and work
  with the government to make it doable. (5-10 year
  to execute)
• Ethanol and pellet making track developments.

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Areas that you want to focus on