Chapter 10 FUTURE OF TERRORISM

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Chapter 10FUTURE OF TERRORISM

• Factors contributing to the escalation of world
  terrorism
• Continuation of the Palestinian problem
• Islamic fundamentalism post-9/11
• State-sponsored terrorism and low-intensity
  warfare
• Super-terrorism and the use of WMD
• Influence of terrorism on quality of life in a
  democracy

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Israel versus Palestinian Resistance Movement

• Implacable enemies No end in sight to
  hostility
• Israel the Palestinians have been in an
  undeclared shadow war since the mid-1960s
• Examples include 1982 Lebanon invasion to destroy
  PLO infrastructure
• Raid escalated into a 3-year war and did not
  destroy the PLO
• Suicide and mortar attacks directed at Israel
  from Palestine

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Israel versus Palestinian Resistance Movement

• Palestinian terrorism violence has accomplished
  little for its side
• Have regained little of the land lost in 1948 or
  1967
• Israeli settlements continue to expand in West
  Bank - Ancient Jewish land of Judea Samaria
  major issue for Israel
• Peace process stagnated and always fragile
  easily derailed by violence or by political
  actions (on both sides)

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Israel versus Palestinian Resistance Movement

• Peace Plans
• Trade peace for land
• Create Palestinian state in Gaza West Bank -
  Issues of right of return
• Questions doubts
• Base for attacks against Israel
• All or nothing mentality among Palestinians
• Question of control access in Jerusalem
• Lasting peace highly unlikely currently
• Escalation of terrorism very likely

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Chapter 10Islamic Extremism

• Post 1979 Iranian revolution, Middle East
  violence terrorism continuing to present
  often against ME targets - by fundamentalist,
  Islamic extremists
• Egypts Sadat assassination,
• Uprisings in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia,
  Lebanon, Egypt Syria
• Shiite Muslims primarily responsible
• Hezbollah Party of God is one example

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Chapter 10Islamic Extremism

• Hezbollah operates in Lebanon name is from
  Koran which promises eternal life for those who
  join the Party of God
• Proclaim world Islamic revolution martyrdom
• Jihad (Holy War) against Christianity, Judaism,
  capitalism godless communism
• Jihad promotes concept of conscious martyrdom
  purification through death apparently a core
  belief of the radical Shiite sects of Hizballah,
  Islamic Jihad others.

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Chapter 10Islamic Extremism

• Attacks from Shiite suicide bombers against U.S.
  targets (overseas) got attention of U.S.
• U.S. charged Iran with sponsoring terrorism by
  funding Shiite attacks
• Shiite Islamic sect synonymous with terrorism
  now, more feared international terrorists than
  the Palestinians

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Chapter 10Islamic Extremism

• OBL al Qaeda now leading patrons of
  international terrorism
• Believed Muslims have been unfairly treated by
  Arab countries in ME
• OBL manipulated Islamic discontent molded it
  into a combo of religious fervor national pride
• OBL sees his destiny as destroying the heretics
  of Islam diminishing the influence of the
  Great Satan, America

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Chapter 10Islamic Extremism

• OBL al Qaeda capitalize on
• Islamic religious fanaticism
• Religious doctrine which promise paradise to
  martyred suicide bombers
• Envy hatred of West
• Anger at repressive Arab governments
• Desire to create a pan-Islamic empire governed by
  Islamic law

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Chapter 10Islamic Extremism

• Outlook
• More attacks on softer, smaller targets
• Low-level chemical, biological attacks
• Loose networks of al Qaeda-directed or
  affiliated terrorists in Europe, Canada and USA
  homegrown attacks
• Increasing use of the Internet to disseminate
  information directions
• Nuclear threat remains

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State-Sponsored Terrorism and Low-Intensity
Warfare

• Conventional warfare beyond al Qaeda/Islamic
  extremist capability
• The alternative is low-intensity conflict
• Low-intensity conflict conflicts ranging from
  terrorism, revolution, counterrevolution, to
  limited small war operations conducted by a
  political group to achieve major political goals

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State-Sponsored Terrorism and Low-Intensity
Warfare

• al Qaeda sponsors some low-intensity warfare
• Provides training, technical assistance even
  direct participation
• Prediction is that unconventional conflicts
  (low-intensity) will escalate in international
  terrorism, guerrilla war limited conventional
  war

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Chapter 10SUPER-TERRORISM

• Biggest threat from terrorism is WMD
• Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) include
  nuclear, chemical and biological weapons which
  could be used to inflict mass casualties with
  numbers of dead and wounded in the 100s of
  thousands or even millions
• As terrorist activity escalates, the threat of
  WMD increases dramatically

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Chapter 10SUPER-TERRORISM

• Nuclear Weapons
• Declared nuclear states include USA, United
  Kingdom, Russia, France China
• Undeclared but either have them or are attempting
  to get them include India, Israel, Iran, North
  Korea, Taiwan, Brazil
• Danger is nuclear proliferation (spread of
  nuclear weapon capability)

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Chapter 10SUPER-TERRORISM

• Spread of nuclear weapons to terrorist requires 2
  major things
• Knowledge of how to construct a nuclear weapon
  no longer a serious problem
• Sufficient quantities of weapons-grade material
• They also need high explosives, a high-tech lab,
  extremely tight security, years of dedicated
  effort, millions of dollars advanced education
  in physics

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Chapter 10SUPER-TERRORISM

• Risk of terrorist getting nuclear weapons
• Loss of available weapons grade material from
  former Soviet Union
• Capture of an intact nuclear weapon
• Pounds of unaccounted-for weapons-grade uranium
  plutonium lost, stolen, or misplaced

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Chapter 10SUPER-TERRORISM

• Terrorist Chemical Biological Attacks
• Sarin gas attack in Japanese subways by Aum
  Shinrikyo
• Tamil Tigers used chlorine gas on Shi Lankan
  military
• Rajneeshees attack with salmonella in Oregon
• Anthrax letters to political media leaders

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INFLUENCE OF INCREASED TERRORISM IN A DEMOCRACY

• Tighter security measures increased costs
  restrictions
• Prolonged terrorist campaign in U.S. would
  probably change our focus on individual rights to
  protection far beyond the current Patriot Act
  probable loss of civil liberties
• Adverse affects on mental health
• Growth of paramilitary groups
• Demographic changes