CENRAP Modeling Workgroup

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CENRAP Modeling Workgroup

• Mational RPO Modeling Meeting
• May 25-26, Denver CO
• Calvin Ku
• Missouri DNR
• May 25, 2004

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CENRAP Modeling Timeline
Control Strategy
Preliminary
Basecase
Jul-Dec 2003 Jan Jul 02
(99) MM5 SMOKE
Aug-Dec 2004 Annual MM5/SMOKE 2002 NEI v. 2
basecase Emission Improvements
Jun-Aug 2005 2018 Project. basecase Control
Strategy Inv.
Meteorology Emissions
Jan-Apr 2004 Model Evaluation/Select CMAQ CAMx
Jul-Sep 2005 2018 basevase Emission
Sensitivity
Jan-Aug 2005 Model Performance. Evaluation
Air Quality Modeling
Oct-Dec 2005 Regional Control Strategy Runs
Apr-Sep 2004 MM5 (v.3.6.3)/basB Emissions
Sensitivity Diagnostic Analysis
July-Aug 2005 Emissions Sensitivity Diagnostic
Analysis
Oct 2004 AQ Model selected Dev. Model Protocol
Jan-Jun 2006 Final Strategy Recommendations
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Preliminary Modeling Goals

• Evaluate the performance of PM models for the
  CENRAP region
• CMAQ vs CAMx
• Assess uncertainties, sensitivity simulations,
  and prioritize model improvement activities
• Integrate AER evaluations with UCR analysis
• Recommend a best model system for use in CENRAPs
  Regional Haze plan

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Preliminary Modeling Domain

• CMAQ and CAMx
• Jan July 2002 episodes
• National RPO grid Lamber Conformal Conic _at_
  center (-97, 40), Lat (33, 45)
• MM5 165x129x34
• SMOKE 147x111x18
• CAMx 101x95x18
• CMAQ 101x95x16

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Configuration of Models

• CMB-IV gas phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx
• RADM aqueous phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx
• Horizontal and vertical advection and diffusion
• Convective transport treated in CMAQ
• Dry deposition
• Wet deposition of gases and particles
• Particle size distribution
• Aerosol thermodynamics
• Aerosol dynamics

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Problems found in phase 1

• negative deposition velocity (mcip) _at_ 0 gmt due
  to VEGFRAC (mm5)
• newly released (2/16/04) MM5 v3.6.3 (mcip patch
  provided by Donna did not work)
• temp difference ranges -20 to 20 C
• difference in biogenic mobile emissions

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Ammonium Spatial Distribution MM5 v3.6.3 vs MM5
v3.5
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PM2.5 Sulfate Spatial Distribution MM5 v3.6.3
vs MM5 v3.5
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Performance Evaluation Data Available for PM
Model

• Routine Monitors
• IMPROVE 24 hour PM2.5 and component data, one in
  three days
• CASTNet 7-day sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, SO2,
  and HNO3 (may be problematic)
• AQS hourly to daily PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5
  speciation, O3, NO, NO2, NOy, VOC, SO2
• Special Studies
• PM Supersites
• BRAVO

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Some Observations from Preliminary Modeling

• Due to large geo, topo, and meterology variations
  in CENRAP region different approaches for
  improving model performance at different Class I
  areas may be required.
• Emissions sensitivity improves performance but
  maybe the wrong reason. Also, it may improve the
  performance at one region but not the other
  region.
• Zero BC for sulfate significantly improves the
  normalized bias by eliminating systematic
  overpredictions at low concentrations.
• The other PM25 component is consistently
  overpredicted
• basB applies fugitive dust transport factors and
  significantly reduce the other PM25
• Accurate predictions of sulfate and nitrate, and
  the associated ammonium is still key for CENRAP
  regional haze modeling
• Sulfate chemistry
• Nitrate chemistry, ammonia emissions, and
  thermodynamics

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Next Steps

• Continue sensitivity runs for SOx, VOC (just
  finish NOx/NH3 sensitivities) and analyze
  CMAQ/CAMx results due to emissions reductions.
• Start diagnostic analysis as per proposal.
• Integrate UCR/Environ modeling analysis.
• Model selection based on model runs diagnostic.
• Develop annual MM5 36km/12km for CENRAP
• Incorporate emission improvements in 2002 NEI
• Develop a RFP for basecase modeling

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2002 Basecase DevelopmentDomain Met Modeling

• CMAQ or CAMx?
• Domain 1 (36km)
• - MM5 165x129x34
• - AQM 147x111x18?
• Domain 2 (12km)
• - MM5 180x240x34?
• - AQM 162x222x18?
• MM5 Configuration - Moisture - Reisner II
  - Cumulus - Kain-Fritsch II - PBL -
  Pleim-Xiu - Radiation - RRTM
  - Soil Temp - Pleim-Xiu LSM

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2002 Basecase DevelopmentEmission Inventory

• A RFP for Compiling Emission Modeling Inventory
• 2002 NEI version 2 - mid July 04
• work products from STI inc. ammonia, fire,
  prescribed burning, nonroad, mobile, etc.
• work products from other RPOs
• 2002 CEM data SMOKE format
• improved temporal, spatial, speciation
  profiles.
• additional QA missing data
• SMOKE (IDA) converter