Lentil Outlook

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Lentil Outlook

• Brian Clancey
• www.statpub.com

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2009 Lentil Area Forecast

• Lairds up 25 at 790,000
• Reds up 28 at 1,002,000
• Eston up 19 at 191,000
• Richlea up 37 at 41,000

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Canadian Lentil Acreage
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Record Lentil Exports

• 377,000 MT of lentils exported
• between August and November
• Half of all lentils we will export
• left Saskatchewan by November
• Turkey took 40 and Egypt 8

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Gross Income ComparisonPercent of Wheat
Crop 5-Yr Average
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Gross Income ComparisonPercent of Durum
Crop 5-Yr Average
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High End of Historic Range

• Decile 9 bids for
• Large green
• Small green
• Red lentils
• Decile 8 bids for
• Medium green
• French green

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No 1 Canada Lentil Deciles(cents per pound)
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No 2 Canada Lentil Deciles(cents per pound)
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All Lentil Supply and Demand
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Strong Red Lentil Sales

• Massive opening season exports to Turkey and
  Egypt
• Turkey took 150,000 MT red and green
• Egypt took 30,600 MT
• More volatile prices through August

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Canadian Red Lentils
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Red Lentil Supply and Demand
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X-Small Red Supply and Demand
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Small Red Supply and Demand
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Large Green Demand Improving

• Slow start to export campaign
• South American exports down 48
• Low prices of 2004-06 increased minimum demand in
  South America

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Large Green - Laird Lentils
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Laird Supply and Demand
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Tighter Small Green Supply

• Harvest down 36 at 93,500 MT
• Ending stocks should drop
• From 19,000 to 10,000 MT

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Small Green Eston Lentils
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Eston Supply and Demand
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Tighter Medium Green Supply

• Stocks up 44 at 22,000 MT
• Stocks to use ratio will
• drop under 9 in 2009-10

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Medium Green Richlea Lentils
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Richlea Supply and Demand
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Whats next?

• Crisis of confidence in trade
• Land competition remains a factor
• Prices will keep in line with grains and oilseeds
  and the economy

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French Green or dePuy Lentils
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What a difference a year makes

• Oil prices have tanked
• The economy has tanked
• Less violent acreage battle
• But lentil prices are similar

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U.S. Biofuel Mandates(billion gallons)
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More Land Needed

• The world needs another 84 million acres under
  continuous crop by the year 2016 to meet biofuel
  needs.
• Pulses and other crops cant keep pace with
  demand unless yields rise.

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World Acreage Outlook(million hectares)
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Canadian Special Crop Acreage
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Special Crop Index

• STATs special crop index illustrates what
  Canadas market looks like to importers.
• Prices trended lower through 2006.
• Last season they surged due to
• record pea and lentil values.

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Canada Special Crop Price Index
2003-08 average 140
2002-06 average 102