Climate Change, variability and Major Initiatives in Nepal

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Climate Change, variability and Major Initiatives
in Nepal
By Government of Nepal Batu Krishna Uprety
Ministry of Environment, Science and
Technology Saraju K. Baidya Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology
Managing Risk of a Changing Climate to Support
Development Asia Regional Workshop 23-26 April,
2007, Kathmandu, Nepal
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Background

• All countries are vulnerable to climate change
  and climate variability.
• Why should Nepal be concerned ?
• Strong evidence of climate change (warming trend)
  and increased climate variability (extreme
  weather events)
• Young and fragile geology of Nepal are very
  sensitive to such climatic changes
• Nepal is one of the poorest countries. Poorest
  countries and the poorest within them are most
  vulnerable. Because they are the most exposed and
  have the least means to adapt.

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Climate Change
All Nepal Temperature is increasing steadily.
All Nepal Rainfall also shows Slightly increasing
trend
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• There is general agreement within the climate
  community that changes in the frequency or
  intensity of extreme climate events i.e. Climate
  variability would have profound impacts on nature
  and society.

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Variability
Rainfall
Significant trends

• Decreasing trend in Consecutive Dry Days
• Increase in Very Wet Days
• Increasing Annual Total Wet-Day Precipitation

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Temperature
Increasing trend in Monthly maximum value of
Daily Maximum Temperature, Monthly maximum value
of Daily minimum temperature, Warm
days, Warm nights, Warm spell
duration Decreasing trend Cool nights (TN10p)
and cool days (TX10p) in
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Summary

• Rainfall
• More rainfall, and very wet days
• Less consecutive dry days.

• Temperature
• Days and nights are both becoming warmer.
  Increase in Warm spell duration
• Fewer Cool nights and cool days.

Warm and Wet days ahead !
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Temperature Change Projection Late 21st Century
Warmer Future
Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India
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Precipitation Change Projection Late 21st Century
Wetter Future
Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India
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Impacts
Glaciers are excellent indicators of climate
change

• Glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate.

Retreat of AX010 Glacier
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Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake Expansion
Lake Development
The retreat of such glaciers results in the
formation of the treacherous glacier lakes.
Risk of catastrophic Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
(GLOF)
A survey by ICIMOD in Nepal revealed 2,323
glacier lakes and identified 20 of them as
potentially dangerous lakes.
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Risk Reduction
Reduction of Lake level by 3 m
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Before
After
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Tampokhari
Photo Lakpa Goeljen Sherpa 1998 (Source Dwivedi
2003)
Photo Clark 1998 (Source Dwivedi, 2003)
Photo Lakpa Goeljen Sherpa 1998 (Source Dwivedi
2003)
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Largest glacier in Nepal
Ngojumpa Glacier
KHUMBU
Settlement
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Some projected impacts Fourth Assessment Report

• Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to
  increase flooding, and rock avalanches from
  destabilised slopes, and to affect water
  resources within the next two to three decades.
  This will be followed by decreased river flows as
  the glaciers recede.
• Freshwater availability in central, south, east
  and southeast Asia is projected to decrease due
  to climate change.
• Crop yield could decrease up to 30 in central
  and south Asia by the mid-21st century. However
  yield could increase in colder environments.
  Insect outbreaks could increase.
• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal
  disease primarily associated with floods and
  droughts are expected to rise. Increased risk of
  heat-related mortality. Reduced human mortality
  from decreased cold exposure.

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In addition

• Nepal is a disaster prone country due to rugged,
  steep topography and fragile geological
  conditions.
• Water induced disasters such as Floods and
  landslides due to heavy rainfall could be
  expected to be more common.
• Increase of GLOFs risks

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Some Initiatives 1994-2005

• Inventory of greenhouse gas for energy sector
• Study on potential linkages amongst Rio
  Conventions
• Workshop on UNFCCC and Institutional Design of
  the Cooperative Implementation Mechanism of KP
• PREGA Promotion of Renewable Energy, Energy
  Efficiency and GHG Abatement
• First Initial National Communication (INC)
  Report, 2004 includes impacts and adaptation
  measures in areas such as agriculture, water
  resources, health and biodiversity
• Carbon trade for resource management and poverty
  reduction (Tenth Plan policy)

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Recent Initiatives

• National Capacity Self Assessment Project -
  initiated with UNDP/GEF assistance
• Proposal for National Adaptation Programme of
  Action
• Drafting of climate change policy
• Launching public awareness activities etc.
• Formation of 23-member Climate Change Network
  representation of GOs, NGOs, academia and private
  sector
• CDM institutional structure (steering
  committee, technical advisory committee)
  established, and SD criteria endorsed to promote
  CDM projects
• Three CDM projects endorsed and PIN of one biogas
  project received for endorsement

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At the End

• Conduct studies on impacts of climate change and
  adaptation measures including projection of
  future climate change
• Need for more regional and national integrated
  assessment of impacts linked with development
  plans
• Need to understand local climate change related
  hazards and develop mitigation and adaptation
  programs to minimize risks at the local and
  regional level.
• Need for more collaborative effort and scientific
  studies
• Nepal is vulnerable to climate variability and
  Climate Change due to exposure to risks and low
  adaptive capacity to cope with risks

Thank you very much