Climate Change:

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Climate Change Globalization of Impacts
Solutions
Sassan Saatchi UCLA/Institute of
Environment NASA/Jet Propulsion
Laboratory California Institute of
Technology Email saatchi_at_congo.jpl.nasa.gov
Security Issues and Impacts Comparative
Perspectives on Europe and Eurasia UCLA, June 1,
2007
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Climate Change The Environmental Consequences of
Growth

• Climate change is a global problem caused by
  human activities at local, regional,
• global scale
• Roots of environmental changes are deeply
  embedded in processes that
• generate economic growth
• Mitigation of effects of climate change
  challenges our economic views of growth,
• progress, and basic human food and energy
  consumption

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Vostok Past climate and CO2
Petit et al., Nature, 1999
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Carbon Cycle Carbon cycles through pools or
reservoirs of carbon on land, in the ocean, and
in sedimentary rock formations over daily,
seasonal, annual, millennial and geological time
scales.
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IPCC, 2007
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Climate Change Human Activity
What is the Global Carbon Cycle?
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The 11 relationship between GDP and CO2
emissions can be de-linked
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Global City Lights
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Vehicles per Thousand PeopleU.S. Compared to
Other Countries
Historical U.S. Vehicles Compared to Vehicles per
1000 People around the World
United States
Vehicles per 1000 People
Eastern Europe
Middle East
n
Former USSR
Africa
l
Central S. America
u
l
n
u
Developing Asia
China
n
SourcesU.S. dataVehicles U.S. Department of
Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,
Highway Statistics 2000, Table VM-1, and earlier
annual editions.Population U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census Time Series of
National Population Estimates April 1, 2000 to
July 1, 2001Other countries/regionsEnergy
Information Administration, International Energy
Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0484(2002), p. 256.
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Global Carbon Cycle
Keeling Curve
Houghton, 1998
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1984
1997
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Consequences of Climate Change
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• Metrics for Dangerous Change
• Extermination of Animal Plant Species
• 1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species
• 2. Unsustainable Migration Rates
• Ice Sheet Disintegration Global Sea Level
• 1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data
• 2. Ice Sheet Response Time
• Regional Climate Change
• 1. General Statement
• 2. Droughts/Floods

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Recent increases in the growing season length at
high northern latitudes
0 50 100 150 200
0 100 200 300
0 100 200 300
Day of Thaw Day of
Freeze Growing Season Length
(days)
1998 Anomaly
Smith, Saatchi, Randerson 2004
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Increasing Fire A Smoking Gun for Changing
Climate?
Large Fires Alaska and Canada 1980 1990
M. Flannigan, T. Swetnam et al
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Deforestation and Fire
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Case Study in Ecotone Region of Cameroon
Economic Commission For Africa, 2001
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Impact of Fire on Land Cover Land Use Change
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MODIS Change Detection
Percent Woody Cover
0-30
31-60
61-100
Hecht Saatchi, BioScience,in press 2007
1-30
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Global terrestrial net uptake of carbon peaks
during the 21st century then levels off or
declines
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21st Century Global Warming

• Climate Simulations for IPCC 2007 Report
• ? Climate Model Sensitivity 2.7-2.9ºC for 2xCO2
• (consistent with paleoclimate data other
  models)
• ? Simulations Consistent with 1880-2003
  Observations
• (key test ocean heat storage)
• ? Simulated Global Warming lt 1ºC in Alternative
  Scenario
• Conclusion Warming lt 1ºC if additional forcing
  1.5 W/m2
• Source Hansen et al., to be submitted to J.
  Geophys. Res.

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The annual mean change of temperature (map)
and the regional seasonal change (upper box DJF
lower box JJA) for the scenarios A2 and B2
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The annual mean change of precipitation (map)
and the regional seasonal change (upper box DJF
lower box JJA) for the scenarios A2 and B2
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Climate change and other environmental issues are
inter-linked
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Responsibility for CO2 Emissions and Climate
Change
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Climate Change An integrated framework
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• Methods to Reduce CO2 Emissions
• 1. Energy Efficiency Conservation
• More Efficient Technology
• Life Style Changes
• 2. Renewable CO2-Free Energy
• Hydro
• Solar, Wind, Geothermal
• Nuclear
• 3. CO2 Capture Sequestration
• ? No Silver Bullet
• ? All Three are Essential

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The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy
Affluence
Japan
United States
France
United Kingdom
South Korea
Mexico
Poland
El Salvador
Russia
China
Poverty
Bangladesh
Burkina Faso
Source Energy Information Administration,
International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1,
B2 Gross Domestic Product per capita is for
2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002
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U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
Have Oil
Use Oil

• Saudi Arabia 26
• Iraq 11
• Kuwait 10
• Iran 9
• UAE 8
• Venezuela 6
• Russia 5
• Mexico 3
• Libya 3
• China 3
• Nigeria 2
• U.S. 2

• U.S. 26
• Japan 7
• China 6
• Germany 4
• Russia 3
• S. Korea 3
• France 3
• Italy 3
• Mexico 3
• Brazil 3
• Canada 3
• India 3

The U.S. uses more than the next 5
highest consuming nations combined.

Updated August 2002. Source International
Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1.
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Limits to Growth
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Resource data may imply a change in the energy
mix and the introduction of new sources of energy
during the 21st century
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Key Message
Environment
Supply Demand
LEBANON. Beirut. City centre. 1991.
Josef Koudelka/CHAOS