The UK Experience with LUCF Reporting

1
The UK Experience with LUCF Reporting

• Amanda Thomson
• With Ronnie Milne, Deena Mobbs and Tommy Brown
• Centre for Ecology Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK

2
Structure of presentation

• Introduction and context
• Forest Land modelling and reporting
• Non-forest land modelling and reporting
• LUCF emissions and removals in the UK
• Summary points

3

• Introduction and context

4
UK Background 1

• DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food and Rural
  Affairs)
• Lead UK department for GHG Inventories and Kyoto
  Protocol compliance
• Funds other agencies to compile annual GHG
  Inventories for
• devolved administrations (Scotland, Wales, N.
  Ireland, England)
• UK
• international bodies
• Centre for Ecology Hydrology compiles LULUCF
  sector inventory

5
UK Background 2

• 2003 inventory produced for both reporting
  categories
• old (IPCC 1996 guidelines)
• new (Good Practice Guidance)
• 6 LUCF categories in new format but
• Wetlands included under other categories in UK
• Other category assumed to have zero flux in UK
• Emissions from LUCF in 2003 were 2.5 of the UK
  total

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1990 Carbon stocks in vegetation and soils
t ha-1
1000 800 600 400 200 0
(Based on soil data provided MLURI, SSLRC
Forestry Authority)
Countryside Survey 1990
Soil Carbon
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Identification of Land Cover Categories

• Historical land use surveys
• Monitoring Landscape Change (1947 and 1980)
• Countryside Survey (1984, 1990 and 2000)
• Land use classes aggregated to GPG land cover
  categories
• Categories used at national level
• A spatially disaggregated approach (20x20km
  grid) is being developed
• Forest definition
• Not always clearly defined in different surveys
• National Inventory of Woodland and Trees land
  with a minimum area of 0.1 ha under stands of
  trees with, or with the potential to achieve,
  tree crown cover of more than 20
• Minimum tree height of 2m

8
Matrices for Land Use Change
Matrix of change using GPG Land Categories

• Used for assessing changes in soil carbon due to
  LUC since 1950
• Each country assessed separately

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GPG Reporting Categories for Inventory

• 5A Forest Land
• 5A1 Forest land remaining Forest Land
• 5A2 Land converted to Forest Land
• 5B Cropland
• 5B1 Cropland remaining Cropland
• 5B2 Land converted to Cropland
• Application of lime to Cropland
• 5C Grassland
• 5C1 Grassland remaining Grassland
• 5C2 Land converted to Grassland
• Application of lime to Grassland
• 5D Wetlands (in Grassland or Other Land for UK)
• 5E Settlements
• 5E1 Settlements remaining Settlements
• 5E2 Land converted to Settlements
• 5F Other Land (Zero for UK)
• 5G Other Activities
• Information Items

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• Forest land modelling and reporting

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How does it fit together Forest land 1

• 5A Forest Land
• 5A1 Forest land remaining Forest Land
• Taken to refer to forests established prior to
  1920 (820,000 ha)
• Assumed carbon neutral, i.e. zero flux
• 5A2 Land converted to Forest Land
• Tier 3 approach
• All planting since 1920 (total area 1,640,000
  ha)
• Split by broadleaf and conifer
• Model C accumulation in biomass, dead material,
  soil wood products
• Model C losses from soil due to planting
  disturbance

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How does it fit together Forest Land 2

• Stock changes on Forest Land since 1920
• C-Flow dynamic carbon accounting model for
  growing forest
• Inputs area of new planting each year since
  1920, stemwood growth rate and harvesting pattern
• Parameters to estimate biomass fractions from
  stemwood volume and decomposition rates of
  litter, soil C and wood products
• Conifer forest represented by Sitka spruce (Yield
  Class 12 m3 ha-1 a-1, 14 m3 ha-1 a-1 in N.
  Ireland)
• Broadleaf forest represented by beech (Yield
  Class 6 m3 ha-1 a-1)
• Standard management practices assumed
  clear-cutting, then re-stocking
• Natural disturbances not modelled

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Expansion of forestry in United Kingdom
Planted area
Rate of planting
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Structure of C-FLOW model
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• Non-forest land modelling and reporting

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Land converted to non-forest land

• Changes in soil stocks
• Model the change in equilibrium carbon density
  between the initial and final land use
• Uses averages for each land use category,
  weighted by area of LUC and soil type
• Rate of change depends on type of land use
  transition
• Loss of carbon fast rate
• Gain of carbon slow rate

Range of times for soil C to reach 99 of a new
values after LUC
Rates of change of soil C for LUC transitions
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How does it fit together Non-Forest Land 1

• Land Categories remaining unchanged
• (Cropland remaining Cropland (5B1), Grassland
  remaining Grassland (5C1), Settlements remaining
  Settlements (5E1))
• Mostly assumed to be carbon neutral
• Changes in biomass reported elsewhere (5G)
• 5B1 includes CO2 emission from drained peatland
  soils
• 5C1 includes emission of CO2 from soil due to
  peat extraction

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How does it fit together Non-forest Land 2

• Land converted to new categories
• (Land converted to Cropland (5B2), Land converted
  to Grassland (5C2), Land converted to Settlements
  (5E2))
• Areas converted to new category since 1950
• Emission factor for CO2 from soil depends on time
  since conversion
• Changes in biomass not estimated
• 5B2 and 5C2 include application of lime to
  Cropland and Grassland
• IPCC default method
• 5E2 includes emissions from biomass burning (CO2,
  CH4 and N2O) after deforestation

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How does it fit together Other Activities and
Information items

• 5G Other Activities
• Non-forest biomass
• Changes in biomass stocks on non-forest land
• Constant rate of accumulation, due to LUC and
  yield increases
• Harvested wood products
• All planting since 1920 (total area 1,640,000
  ha)
• C-Flow model used for estimating carbon
  accumulation
• Information Items
• Forest Land converted to other land
  (deforestation)
• Low emissions government guidelines against
  deforestation
• Assumed to be mostly due to urbanisation
• Activity data from
• Felling licences (with no restocking)
• Non-rural land use change from map updates

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• LUCF emissions and removals in the UK

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Emissions Removals by LULUCF in the UK
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Uncertainty estimation
Expert judgement of uncertainty of
emissions/removals in the IPCC 1996 categories

• Uncertainties not yet estimated for new format
• Non-forest emissions/removals based on Monte
  Carlo simulation ? uncertainties derivable from
  this
• Uncertainty in forest emissions/removals based on
  Monte Carlo analysis and likely variation in
  forest yield classes across the UK

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Summary points

• UK presented 2003 LUCF results in both old and
  new reporting formats
• Current methodologies are not fully integrated
  with GPG reporting structure but further work is
  planned
• Key removal categories are afforestation and
  conversion to grassland
• Key emission categories are conversion to
  cropland and conversion to settlements
• LUC is currently modelled for individual
  countries
• Developing grid scale models for afforestation
  and soil C fluxes due to non-forest LUC
• Further information on http//www.edinburgh.ceh.ac
  .uk/ukcarbon/

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• End of presentation

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Projections

• Projections of emissions to 2020 are made for
  each activity and each country
• A central, high emission and low emission
  scenario were developed for each activity
• Scenarios based on extrapolation of recent trends
  and afforestation policy

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Results for projections - UK
Projections of UK emissions and removals for
major land types
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Grid version of dynamic emission factor model

• Uses same equations and parameters as national
  method
• Grid-cells of 20km by 20km for UK
• Land use change matrix for each grid-cell
• Finer scale data only available for 1984 to 1998
  at present
• Good comparison at national scales with existing
  Inventory data
• Sample output for period 1990 to 2020 available
• Grassland shown as example here

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Outputs for Grassland