Fremtidens energisystem muligheter og utfordringer

1
Fremtidens energisystem muligheter og
utfordringer

• Atle Midttun
• Handelshøyskolen BI
• Internasjonalt energiforum
• 15-6-05

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CBA Circular Logic of Technology
Learning Deployment creates two least-cost
Technology Paths from identical starting
points (Genie model 1997)
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CBA and the Ceteris Paribus Assumption Future
Costs are a function of Future History
and propensity for Learning (assumed invariant)
Källa Experience Curves for Energy Technology
Policy, IEA 2000
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Læringskurver og nisjemarkeder
5
Support systems and Learning Curves
RD beyond Certificates
Potential support from Certificates
El-Market-basert pricing
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Minimaliser ellers markeds-segmentering!
Læringskurver er avhengig av volum og
kommersiell dynamikk
7
The New Renewables Power Balance
8
Dynamic Trajectories of Danish Wind Mill
Development