Northwest Wind Integration Action Plan

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Northwest Wind Integration Action Plan

• Jeff King
• Northwest Power Conservation Council
• June 27, 2007

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Northwest wind power development
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Northwest generating capacity 54,600 MW
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Wind projects
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Drivers of wind power development

• Federal Production Tax Credit
• Natural gas price uncertainty and volatility
• Concerns regarding climate change
• WA, OR CA restrictions on acquiring
  CO2-intensive resources.
• State Renewable Portfolio Standards
• Washington (15 by 2020)
• Oregon (25 by 2025)
• California (33 by 2020)
• (Until recently) Favorable competitive position
  of new wind (w/PTC) vs. new fossil plants.

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Wind Integration Forum

• Chartered as a Council advisory committee for a
  two-year period
• Monitor, facilitate and review implementation of
  WIAP actions.
• Actions are funded and otherwise supported by
  participating organizations
• Semiannual meetings of the Steering Committee
  bimonthly meetings of the Technical Work Group

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Issues addressed by WIAP Phase I

• What is the role of wind energy in a power supply
  portfolio?
• Does the Northwest have the operational
  capability (system flexibility) to integrate
  6000 MW of wind?
• What are the transmission requirements for 6000
  MW of wind power?
• How will the costs of wind integration be
  recovered?
• Over the longer-term, how can the Northwest
  secure its wind potential in the most
  cost-effective manner?

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Key findings Role of wind energy

• The principal benefits of wind energy are
  energy-related
• Displacement of fossil fuel emissions
• Displacement of carbon dioxide production
• Primarily through displacement of baseload
  natural gas plants
• Reduced exposure to natural gas price uncertainty
  and volatility
• Extreme heating and cooling events frequently are
  accompanied by region-wide high-pressure weather
  systems (i.e., stagnant air).
• Winds capacity value probably lower than
  provisional 15.
• Northwest utilities will need to rely on capacity
  resources (hydro, thermal or demand-side) to meet
  peak loads.

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Wind generation declines during extreme
temperature conditions
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Action

• A1 Reassess 15 pilot sustained wind capacity
  value (Adequacy Forum, underway)

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Key findings System Integration

• Wind energy behaves like negative load.
• Not fundamentally different from managing load
  variability.
• However, wind output is more variable and less
  predictable than load.
• Integration cost is the cost of committing
  generating capacity for operating reserves and
  for managing hour-to-hour changes in wind output.
• Range from 2 - 16/MWh
• Low end Diversified low (e.g., 5 10)
  penetration within control area
• High end Undiversified high (e.g., 20 30)
  penetration within control area
• No fundamental technical barriers to integrating
  6000 MW.
• Load growth and additional constraints on
  operation of hydro system will erode this
  capability.

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System Integration Process
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Impact of wind on system variability
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Integration costs are small fraction of delivered
wind energy cost
NO CO2 cost or risk No fuel cost or fuel price
risk
Operating reserves for integration
Large transmission component
Large capital investment. Value of , commodity
cost wind demand risks
Fifth Power Plan assumptions IOU ownership 30
capacity factor 2010 service E. WA/OR
location Current costs are substantially higher
PTC acts as negative variable cost
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Integration actions

• A2 Refine estimates of the cost and supply of
  wind integration services (BPA and other control
  areas)
• A3 Develop high resolution, chronological
  Northwest wind data set (BPA, NREL - funded for
  2007)
• A11 Evaluate costs benefits of wind
  forecasting network (Forum - 2008 action)
• A12 Implement ACE diversity interchange pilot
  (PAC, IPC, NWE, BCTC - underway)
• A13 Improve markets for flexibility services
  (Forum - kickoff workshop 7/12/07)

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Key findings Transmission

• Existing transmission capacity can support
  anticipated wind development only through 2009.
• The current practice of relying entirely on firm
  transmission capacity for an energy resource with
  little firm capacity contribution needs to be
  revisited.
• Additional development will require combination
  of transmission expansion and innovative
  less-than-firm transmission products
• Access to wind sites with higher capacity factors
  and more diverse generation patterns will lower
  busbar and wind integration costs.

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Transmission path constraints
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Path constraints are affecting location of wind
project proposals
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Transmission actions I

• A7 Develop less-than-firm transmission
  products and other means to improve efficiency of
  transmission use (BPA - underway).
• A8 Develop plans of service for reinforcing
  constrained paths (BPA - underway)
• A9 Develop approach to financing market-driven
  reinforcements and expansions (BPA - underway)
• A6 Review and amend as necessary regulatory
  policies to support more efficient use of
  transmission (Commissions, OPUC lead - underway)

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Transmission actions II

• A4 Develop transmission planning principles and
  methodology for optimal firmness of service (NTAC
  - kickoff workshop 6/21/07)
• A5 Apply technical planning methodology to
  identify least-cost transmission expansions
  (Columbia Grid NTTG, 2008 action)
• A10 Evaluate approaches to delivering wind
  energy from Montana and other promising but
  isolated resource areas (NTAC - 2008 action)

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Securing wind potential in the most
cost-effective manner in the long-term

• A14a Characterize demand-side, power
  generation, storage and other options for
  augmenting system flexibility (Forum - 2008)
• A14b Improve understanding of tradeoff between
  competing uses of system flexibility (NPCC -
  2008)
• A15 Develop planning framework to optimize
  tradeoffs between
• costs transmission expansion and resulting
  benefits of geographic diversification of wind
  projects, and
• costs of augmenting system flexibility
• (NPCC - Sixth Power Plan)

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http//www.nwcouncil.org/energy/Wind/library/2007-
1.pdf