CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE IN PACIFIC MESOAMERICA

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CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE IN PACIFIC MESOAMERICA

• CHALLENGES FOR CONSERVATION OF BIODIVERSITY AND
  SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

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Content

• The global picture
• Scenarios for Costa Rica and Central America
• What are the challenges for conservation?
• What are the opportunities for rational responses?

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Industrial revolution and the atmosphere
The current concentrations of key greenhouse
gases, and their rates of change, are
unprecedented.
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
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Temperature change C
85 of worlds glaciers are retreating. The
majority of Greenland and Antarctica ice caps
melting twice as fast as expected. 0.5 degree C
rise in SST 40 increase hurricane activity.
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Climate Change Changes in the mean (average) and
variance are both important for temperature and
rainfall
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new considerations

• El Nino Modoki
• African dust
• Trace gases
• Clouds

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EL NINO
June, July, August Hot and Dry in Costa Rica
December, January, February typical hot and dry
in Costa Rica (northern Pacific side)
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Sea surface temperatures (SST) of classic
developing El Nino
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High wind shear in Caribbean reduces formation of
strong storms. A characteristic feature of El
Nino years.
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El Nino Modoki or Central Pacific El Nino
During an El Nino Modoki, the Pacific warm pool
is further westward. Wind shear in the Caribbean
is reduced and the formation of strong Atlantic
storms may increase. Greater ocean productivity
in the Costa Rica dome?
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And the role of African dust??Most comes from a
small part of Mali
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Will the Sahelian climate become drier or
wetterclimate models give contradictory
scenarios. But. Overgrazing by goats is
increasing dust storms in Africa.
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Trace gases emitted by vegetation may also be
important

• Isoprene and monoterpense (volatile organic
  compounds) may make up as much as 6 of
  atmospheric carbon

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Tropical forests emit the largest amounts of
isoprene and monoterpenes
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Organic aerosols, especially monoterpenes,
contribute to cooling of the atmosphere. They
can form raindrop nuclei and increase rainfall.
Important in coniferous forests where mostly
monoterpenes are emitted. However.in tropical
forests both isoprene and monoterpenes are
produced. And more are produced at higher
temperatures.
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Large air chamber experiments demonstrate that
rain nuclei do not form from these aerosols when
isoprene and monoterpene occur together.
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Increasing amounts of isoprene plus monoterpene
may therefore lead to drier and warmer
conditions. Will this be true in the real
tropical environment? Forest composition will
be important because some species emit mostly
isoprene, e.g. Quercus, while others emit mostly
monoterpenes, e.g., Eucalyptus, Anacardium.
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Do clouds (red) above warm oceans act to cool or
to warm the atmosphere? Results of 55 year study
of ship records recording ocean temperature and
cloudiness suggest that low level cooling
clouds are dissipated and there is an increase in
high level clouds that allow more sunlight
penetration. Therefore, high level clouds
forming over warm oceans may act as a positive
feedback mechanism to enhance further warming.
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The Working Group I Report
IPCC 2007

• Started 2004
• Completed February 2007
• 152 Authors
• 450 contributors
• 600 expert reviewers
• 30,000 review comments
• And, that is just for this Working Group

http//ipccwd1.ucar.edu/
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What do the regional climate models tell us?
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Regional climate models

• Consider such local variables as mountains,
  proximity to ocean, land use, etc.

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Regional Climate Model (CATHALAC 2008)
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Precipitation
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Relative severity precipitation and temperature
2020-2050

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Future climate of Costa Ricabest guesses
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Scenarios for Costa Rica and Central America

• Even more uncertainty
• General agreement that the future will be hotter
  and drier than the present
• Likely that much of Central America will have
  more prolonged droughts
• Plausible that much of Central America will have
  few but more intense storms

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Some likely consequences for Costa Rica
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Possible increase in vector borne diseases
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Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) distribution
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Aedes albopictus
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Chicken diseases
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Challenges for conservation

• Changes in species distribution and abundance
• Altered phenology and productivity of forests
• Vulnerable aquatic ecosystems
• Re-assessing environmental services

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Changes in species distribution and
abundanceSome examples at small, medium and
large scales
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Fig trees are pollinated by small wasps that fly
short distances. Because fig trees reproduce
asynchronously and are abundant there is usually
a nearby fig to pollinate.
However, drier and hotter weather may reduce
flight distances and affect fruiting patterns
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Quetzal and Lauraceae distribution with climate
change???Quetzal migrate up and down mountains
following the fruiting pattern of several species
of Lauraceae.
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Resplendent Quetzal. Royal bird of the Maya.
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Quetzals, toucans, and many other fruit-eating
birds are major dispersers of tree seeds. Their
ecosystem service maintains the forest. This
Quetzal is holding a fruit of a wild relative of
the avocado.
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A key question.. As climate change develops,
how will the fruit yield of the lower elevation
Lauraceae be affected?
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Long distance connections

• Shade-grown coffee and boreal spruce-fir forests

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Vermivora peregrina Cazadorcita
Most important insectivore in shade-grown coffee
in Costa Rica and major predator on spruce
budworm pest in Canadian boreal forest.
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Questions for the cazadorcita?

• How will warming of the boreal climate affect
  spruce budworm populations and bird breeding
  success?
• How will this affect coffee farm pest
  populations?
• Can V. perigrina in Costa Rica be protected from
  a drying climate by managing nectar sources?

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Combretum fruticosum, example of an important
nectar source for birds in the coffee zones
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Bird species diversity is strongly dependent on
available monthly energy from fruit in
shade-coffee
Peters, Cooper, Carroll 2009
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Global warming

• Impact on two key crops
• coffee and rice.
• Implications for conservation

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Coffee

• Climate change is expected to greatly lower
  coffee yield in Central Americawill Costa Rica
  have a relative advantage?

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La broca del café is a major limiting pest in
coffee worldwide. Costa Rica is relatively less
affected.
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Ojo de gallo disease is common in Costa Rice
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Coffee arabica

• Yields drop sharply with higher temperature
• Coffee berry borer La broca may move above
  1500-1600 m
• Coffee rust becomes worse
• Leaf spot ojo de gallo a lesser problem if
  climate dries

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Consequences?

• As coffee yields decline, price will increase.
  Will this increase pressure to open up more high
  altitude forest for coffee production?
• Will shade coffee increase?
• What will happen to the current coffee lands?

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Rice

• Rice yields drop 10 for every 1 degree C
  increase in night time temperature (Philippines)

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Consequences cont

• As rice yields decline, will more lands be
  converted to irrigated rice to compensate for the
  lost aggregate revenue?
• Will this increase competition for water to
  maintain natural wetlands--or conversion of
  wetlands to rice fields?
• What about additional increased competition for
  water from coastal ecotourism?

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Palo Verde Marsh
Rice field
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Opportunities for rational responses in northwest
Costa Rica

• Increased monthly fruit-energy, floral resources
  in the shade coffee agroecosystem..bird
  friendly marketing
• Protecting wet refugia, protecting headwaters,
• Developing organic and water conserving rice
  production
• Reconnecting and protecting wildlife corridors
  especially from the summit to the sea

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For adapting to climate changeSummit to the sea
corridorsmay be even more important than
north-south corridors
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Tempisque Project

• A template for studying the consequences and
  adaptive responses to land use and climate change
  in Pacific Mesoamerica

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Tempisque basin rice fields
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