Estimating Time

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Estimating Time
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What is an Estimate?

• According to PMBOK
• A quantitative assessment of the likely amount or
  outcome.
• It should always come with some indication of
  accuracy.

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(No Transcript)
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When should I start estimating?
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What is a WBS?

• A process that helps you Visualize your project
  deliverables
• Divides the work into smaller more manageable
  pieces of work
• Draws on the expertise of the team
• Gets you to the work package (task) level

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Who should create the WBS?
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Example WBS
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Inputs to Estimating

• Agreed upon Scope document
• Lessons Learned
• Past Projects
• Existing Organizational Processes (Procurement
  process, known HW delivery times, etc)
• Resources (number available, skill level, etc)

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Tools and Techniques

• Expert Judgment
• Analogous Estimating
• Three-Point Estimates
• Best Case
• Worst Case
• Most Likely
• Bottom-up Estimating

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Tools and Techniques

• Three-Point Estimates
• Best Case
• Worst Case
• Most Likely
• Task Time
• Best Case (4 x Most Likely) Worst Case
• ---------------------------------------------
• 6

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Estimating key points

• Fully understand the problem to be solved
• Dont underestimate, be realistic, lose the
  superman cape! 
• Dont forget about related tasks
• Allow time for expected and unexpected
  disruptions
• Identify how much risk is associated with each
  task
• Accept it, transfer it, or mitigate it

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Estimating key points

• Effort and Durationcould be different!!

Total Time Duration
Time not working on Task
Actual work on task - Effort
Note if resources are assigned full time,
duration is minimized. Productivity is higher.
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Monitor and Control
Estimating key points

• Pay attention to the Critical Path
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• Be proactive, negotiate for resources needed at a
  certain time
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• Plan up front for holidays, vacations, or other
  time away from work
• Track Actual Time against Estimates

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Lets try it

• Get into 2 groups
• ID your team members role
• Build a WBS
• Sequence your tasks
• Estimate task length
• Find the Critical Path (if there is one!)
• Define how you mitigated the risk of a task
• Use Implementing a software release as an example

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Summary

• Define and agree on Scope
• Gather Requirements
• Involve everyone affected (positively or
  negatively)
• Involve Customers and End Users
• Describe how the end product will look
• Gain acceptance and sign off
• Design in Detail
• Think about every task involved to deliver the
  product
• Involve your team (expert judgment)

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Summary

• Estimate Tasks
• Refer to organizational assets (lessons learned,
  past projects)
• Involve your team (expert judgment)
• Estimate the length of each task (Bottom-Up
  Estimating)
• Define certainty and risk (best case, worst case,
  most likely)
• Schedule the work
• ID Dependencies and Sequence
• Allow testing time (dont forget to check
  Customers availability)
• ID Vacations, holidays, or other time away from
  work
• Find the Critical Path
• Negotiate for needed resources to stay on track
• Execute, Monitor and Control
• Execute to the schedule
• Monitor scope, change, issues, risks
• Track actuals against baseline

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Estimating

• Questions?
• itpmo_at_clemson.edu