Climate Change in New York State

1
Climate Change in New York State What can we
expect? Whats being done?
Office of Climate Change http//www.dec.ny.gov
2
Weather vs Climate

• Weather - Daily or weekly change in wind,
  moisture, barometric pressure, and temperature of
  an area
• Climate - Long term pattern of weather in a
  region over many years

3
Scientific Consensus on Climate Change

• GHG emissions from burning fossil fuels and other
  human activities are causing climate change
• There would be further warming, even if we
  stopped emissions now
• GHGs have long atmospheric life
• Ocean systems will take decades to respond
• Magnitude of warming depends on our greenhouse
  gas emissions

4
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Fourth Assessment Report published November, 2007
• Most comprehensive synthesis of climate change
  science to date
• 130 countries
• 450 lead authors ( 800 contributing authors)
• 2500 experts reviewed

5
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

• Warming since the mid-20th century is unequivocal
  and is caused primarily by human activities (gt90
  percent probability)
• Past emissions of heat trapping gases make some
  continued warming unavoidable

6
IPCC on Consequences

• Consequences of recent warming are already
  apparent around the world
• Severity of future impacts depends largely on the
  amount of heat-trapping gases emitted by current
  and future human activities

7
www.climatechoices.org
8
Predictions Are Based on Emission Scenarios

• High emissions Business as usual
• Lower emissions Significant reduction in energy
  use/generation

9
Projected CO2 Emissions High and Low Emissions
Scenarios
HIGHER A1FI
LOWER B1
10
Rising TemperaturesRegion-wide Summer Averages,
High and Low Scenarios
30 yrs
60yrs
100yrs
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How hot will summers feel in Upstate New York?
Summer Heat Index
12
Warming is Already Evident
Since 1970

• Northeast annual average temperature up 1.4F
• New York annual average temperature up almost 2º
  F
• New York winter temperatures almost 5o F warmer

13
Rainfall Projections

• More total precipitation in the Northeast
• More rain in winter
• More frequent extreme storms
• Heavier rain during storm events

Wallkill in New Paltz March, 2005
14
Kingston Waterfront FloodingApril 2005
15
Ocean Changes

• Hudson affected by sea level to Troy Dam
• 15 rise in past 150 years at NYC
• Conservative projections
• Low emission, 7-14 rise
• High emission, 10-24 rise
• Rising ocean temperatures may worsen storm flood
  events

Low-lying areas at risk (Town of Bethlehem)
16
New York City 100-Year Flood
17
Projected Great Lakes Impacts

• Average lake levels are expected to decline
• Pressure will grow to increase water extraction
  from the Great Lakes
• Deep-water refuges will remain, but shallow areas
  may see dead zones and fish kills
• Lower lake levels will require more dredging and
  other shipping-and boating-related adjustments

18
Drought Projections

• Warmer summers
• Drier soils
• Periodic drought
• Longer periods of low streamflow

Plattekill, Summer 2005
19
Snowfall

• Trends
• Decreasing snow cover
• Wetter and heavier snow
• Late ice in, early ice out
• Earlier spring snowmelt
• More intense high flows

20
The Changing Face of Winter
(Under a high emissions scenario)
Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart
21
Plants Animals

• Shifts in species range
• Change in bloom dates
• Altered migration patterns
• Loss of synchrony

American marten
22
Plants Animals

• Invasive species expand north
• Invasives and weeds flourish in high CO2
• Higher pollen production

23
Who Cares?

• Towns, cities and businesses care
• Winter precipitation (mostly rain) could increase
  by 20-30
• Sea level rise may compromise wetland water
  filtration, nutrient removal, flood water storage
• 100-year flood could occur every 10 years (NYC)
• Cities could see 20 days over 100 degrees (now
  only a few)

24
Who Cares?

• Farmers care
• Seasonal drought could occur every summer
  (Catskills, Adirondacks)
• Sugar maples may move out of the region, with
  decline in syrup production
• Rapid changes may compromise natural pest control
  and pollination

25
Who Cares?

• Sports enthusiasts care
• Winter snow season may be half in northern NY, as
  brief as 1-2 weeks in southern NY
• Sea level rise may compromise fish spawning

26
Who Cares?

• Consumers and businesses care
• Existing policies and economic forces subsidize
  ways of doing business that put too much CO2 into
  the air
• High fossil fuel prices put the Northeast at
  economic risk
• Sea level rise and increased storm activity
  discourage insurance coverage

27
Now - The Upside

• Climate change is making us green our economy
  and increase sustainability
• Renewable energy is becoming an integral part of
  the world energy mix
• In New York, RGGI is creating market incentives
  for low-carbon and non-carbon electricity
  technologies

28
What NYS is Doing

• Office of Climate Change
• International Carbon Action Partnership
• The Climate Registry
• Sea Level Rise Task Force
• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
• GHG vehicle emission standards
• 15 reduction in electricity use by 2015
• Renewable Portfolio Standard 25 by 2013
• Professional and public education

29
NYS Climate Change Office Focusing state
responses to climate change

• Created in 2007, staff of 12
• Other DEC programs also integrating climate
  change
• Analyzes climate science
• Provides reliable information to support policy,
  regulation
• Promotes strategic technologies
• Builds climate partnerships
• Works to empower governments, NGOs, individuals
• Partners with local, state, federal agencies
• Promotes planning, coordination and action

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Science and AnalysisClimate Change Office

• Scientific/technical support for programs to
  mitigate and adapt to climate change
• Economist
• Engineer
• Climatologist
• Research Scientist

31
Programs and PartnershipsClimate Change Office

• Climate change lens for decision-making
• New York State Agencies
• DEC Programs
• Municipal Governments
• Universities/other Institutions
• Businesses
• Individuals

32
International Carbon Action Partnership

• Public entities with mandatory cap-trade systems
  work together on CO2 trading
• Extends global carbon market
• Encourages consistent international regulatory
  framework
• Additional emissions reduction policies to
  complement carbon markets

33
The Climate Registry

• Common system to measure, track, verify, report
  GHG emissions
• Largest climate initiative in North America
• States with more than 80 of U.S. population
• Canadian provinces, Mexican states, Indian tribes

34
The Climate Registry New Yorks Involvement

• Charter member (since May, 2007)
• Benefits
• Participate in reporting protocol development
• Share information with other states climate
  change staff and decision makers
• Gain access to verified data for comparison with
  sector estimates

35
New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force

• Established 2007,16 members, DEC chair
• Report due late 2009
• Impacts of sea level rise
• Recommendations for protecting at-risk coastlines
  and habitats
• Suggested adaptation measures
• Recommended regulatory or statutory changes

36
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

• Ten-state regional program to cap and reduce
  carbon emissions
• Focus on electric power sector
• Region wide and state-specific caps
• Auction based allowance distribution

37
Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Emission Standards

• 2004 California adopts first regulation of CO2
  as tailpipe emission
• 2005 CA requests EPA waiver to allow CO2
  standard New York proposes to adopt CA standard
• 2007 EPA denies waiver for CO2 standard
• 2008 New York and 14 other states sue EPA to
  allow CO2 standard to proceed

38
What You Can Do

• Turn off lights, computers, and appliances when
  not in use
• Replace incandescent light bulbs with compact
  fluorescents
• Walk, bike or carpool
• Buy Energy Star appliances
• Support renewable energy, buy green power or
  carbon offsets
• Drive the speed limit

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The Wedges Concept
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A Wedge Is

• A strategy to reduce carbon emissions that
• Grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/year
• Has already been commercialized at scale
  somewhere

1 GtC/yr
Total 25 Gigatons carbon
50 years
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Historical Emissions
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
16
Historical emissions
8
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
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The Stabilization Triangle
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current path ramp
16
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical emissions
8
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
45
The Stabilization Triangle
Easier CO2 target
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current path ramp
16
850 ppm
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical emissions
8
Flat path
Tougher CO2 target
500 ppm
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
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Stabilization Wedges
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current path ramp
16 GtC/y
16
Eight wedges
Goal In 50 years, same global emissions as today
Historical emissions
8
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
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Whats at Stake
48
QUESTIONS?

• Office of Climate Change
• NYSDEC
• 625 Broadway
• Albany, NY 12233-1030
• [phone]
• climatechange_at_gw.dec.state.ny.us