Population Change and Poverty among the Elderly in Transitional China

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Population Change and Poverty among the Elderly
in Transitional China

• Juhua Yang
• Center for Population and Development Studies,
  Renmin University of China
• Beijing, January 23, 2009

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Contents of the Presentation

• Purpose of this project
• Background
• Conceptual framework
• Data and methods
• Analytical results and discussion
• Policy implications

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1. Statement of Purpose (I)

• Individual wellbeing a product of SE and
  political circumstances at multiple level, not a
  private issue
• SE development in China (-) the poor in the
  total population
• Poverty reduction in China contribute to the
  decline of poverty in the world global
  significance (Sen 2002)
• Inclusion or exclusion of China in the prevalence
  of world poverty a great difference

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1. Statement of Purpose (II)

• Driving forces of poverty reduction
• Socioeconomic development
• Improved coverage of public welfare
• Population change at macro and household levels
• Poverty reduction among the elderly slower
• Consensus on poverty among the elderly
• A higher proportion of the households with
  elderly and the elderly in poverty
• A worsened trend of pauperization

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1.1 Statement of Purpose (III)

• Why is the reduction of poverty among the elderly
  slower than other segments of the population?
• How may population change (e.g. family context)
  be related to poverty among the elderly in the
  context of inadequate social welfare and support
• What are the mechanisms by which population
  change affects elderly poverty?
• What are the implications for policy
  reformulation and program intervention to improve
  the elderly WB?

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1.2 Objectives

• Investigate the relationship between population
  change and poverty among the elderly in
  transitional China with inadequate public welfare
  and support
• Provide better understanding of the population
  determinants of elderly poverty, while
  considering the role of SE and environmental
  factors in elderly life
• Draw societal and gov attention to scientific
  studies and program interventions for reducing
  the poverty and enhancing the wellbeing of the
  elderly

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2.1 Definitions of Key Concepts

• Elderly population age 65
• Poverty defined as
• Economic relative and absolute
• Social an essential element in the deprivation
  of capacity and empowerment of the elderly
• Population change defined as
• Reduced fertility mortality rate
• Population redistribution
• Changing population age structure
• Changing family structure and living arrangements

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2.2 Population Change (I)

• Later marriage fewer children frequent moves
  longer life

Figure 1. TFR and Life Expectancy at Birth China
1950-2010
Source World Population Prospects The 2006
Revision (UN 2007)
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2.2 Population Change (II)

• Aging a common global demographic trend
  affected most countries particularly EA
  societies (UN 2007)
• Aging in China
• the proportion of people age 65 7 the share
  of people age 60 10 of the total population
  in 2000
• Fast pace of aging in the next decades (UN 2005)
  huge absolute amount of the elderly in the near
  future (Winkler 2002)
• Unique feature of aging in China fast
  wei-fu-xian-lao getting old before getting
  rich) (Tien 2005 Wu et al. 2004)

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Figure 3. Dependence Ratio and Labor Force ()
China 1950-2050

• Source World Population Prospects The 2006
  Revision (UN 2007).

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Figure 5-6. Proportion of Elderly Ages 65 by
Residence and Gender
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2.2 Population Change (III)

• Unprecedented migration redistribution of
  population
• Chinas 2005 National 1 Population Survey some
  150 million of migrants, over 10 of Chinas
  total population (NPFPCC 2006)
• Most migrants from the countryside in working
  age the elderly left behind
• Implications for the wellbeing of different
  segments of population (Du et al. 2004)

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Figure 7. Size of Migrants in China 1982-2005
Source Multiple sources. Unit10 thousand.
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2.2 Population Change (IV)

• Changing fertility reshaping
• the pool of eligible adult children to live with
  parents
• the feeling of family obligation among children
• () longevity () the availability of parents
  surviving to the marriage of children, demanding
  for support
• Migration increasing geographic distance between
  parents and children
• Reshaped family context family type, size, LA,
  parental-child relationship

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Figure 8. Family Size in China 1947-2006
Source Multiple sources
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2.3 Table 1. Status of Poverty among Elderly in
China
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Table 2. Daily Living Sources among the Elderly
Ages 60 in China
Source The 2000 Population Census and 2005 One
Percent Population Survey.
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3.1 Population Change and Poverty

• In high fertility regime Reduce the poverty of
  the youth and women
• In low fertility regime more complicated
• A non-linear linkage, depending upon the
  characteristics of varying segments of population
• Different aspects of population change diverse
  impacts on poverty, on different dimensions of
  poverty, on the poverty of different segments of
  population
• Population-poverty relation affected by the
  readiness and experience of the public support
  system of a country

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3.2 Conceptual Framework
Figure 9. Analytical Framework on the
Relationship between Demographic Change and
Poverty of the Elderly
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4.1 Data and Methods
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4.1 CLHLS

• Duke and Peking Univ panel survey on the elderly
  in 1998, 2000, 2002 2005 Use last two waves
• Randomly selected half of the counties in each of
  22 provinces (85 of total pop.) replacement
• Suitable for the purpose of this project
• Demographic, social, and economic variables
• Family structure and intergenerational relations
• Accessibility, affordability and utilization of
  health services and caring resources in community
• Public health insurance and retirement pension

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4.1 2007 Population Change and Elderly Poverty
Interview

• In-depth interview among elderly ages 60 in city
  and town neighborhoods, and rural villages in six
  provinces between September and December, 2007
• Liaoning, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Sichuan,
  Gansu
• Differ substantively in socioeconomic
  development, population characteristics and
  public welfare
• Interviewed economic wellbeing, health, emotional
  solace, and public securities at the community
  and individual levels
• Both common and unique questions in each location

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4.2 Variables (I)
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4.2 Variables (II)
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4.2 Variables (III)
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4.3 Strategies of Analysis (I)

• Integration of qualitative data and quantitative
  data
• Univariate analysis
• Means or proportion of the characteristics of the
  elderly with a focus on poverty and population
  factors
• The trends, patterns and status of elderly
  poverty
• Bivariate analysis
• Poverty with population change and other
  correlates
• Similarities and disparities of the elderly by
  urban residence and gender in relation to poverty

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4.3 Strategies of Analysis (II)

• Multivariate analysis
• Binary and ordered logistic regression models
  with RSE
• Multilevel models
• Fixed models
• Methodological issues
• Endogeneity between economic status and health
  status
• IV models hunger in childhood as instrument
• Sample selection bias for the stay elderly survey

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5. Analytical Results

• Notes
• Results from various datasets and models are
  similar only present findings from the CLHLS
  complemented by qualitative data from in-depth
  interviews
• Not using Heckman selection model instrument
  variable model the latter model cannot concave

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Figure 10-11 Rate Poverty among the Elderly in
CLHLS
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Figure 12. Rate Poverty among the Elderly (cont)
Data source Data of the top panel come from 2007
Population Change and Elderly Poverty data of
the bottom panel come from the 2004 RCMFES.
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Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS (I)
Note IDLSInadequate daily life source
RLSRelative Living Standard. Model controls for
other variables Binary model for IDLS ordered
logistic model for other outcomes.
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• Food of the elderly in different locations of
  interview

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• I do not have kids I live with my nephew. You
  see, that is his house (a two-story, red brick
  building in the same yard, which is in sharp
  contrast with the elderly house authors
  note). I am happy. I am an old blinder I would
  have died in old society (prior to 1949
  authors note), you know. The government gives me
  70 yuan (about 10 authors note) each month
  my nephew claims the money, but that is ok. He
  does not take care of me. I cook, wash cloth, and
  shop by myself a relative carries water for me.
  I do not want to live in nursing home. Why? There
  is no freedom, and I do not want to be thoughts
  as childless and cursed may you die without a
  son. I eat meat whenever I want. You know, at
  the end of the lunar year, relatives always
  kindly give me a bucket of meat tips (a 76-year
  old man in Lintao County)

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• Left top the 76-year-old childless man show us
  the meat he frequently eats
• Right top His meat, molded
• Left The feet of a 76-year-old female elderly,
  who just came back from her water field. Her
  sons three-story brick building is next to her
  one-story, mod house

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• I have four children, two boys and two girls.
  Three are in Beijing, and one here. They all do
  well. They are filial, and give me lots of money.
  We have enough food, cloth, and my younger
  daughter bought me this spacious apartment (it is
  too big, and really a waste of money). My friends
  admire me, you know. But they do not have time to
  come back to visit us, even in holidays. They ask
  me to go to Beijing, but I have no friends there,
  and the kids do not have time to talk to me. I
  was there many times, you know, waiting for them
  to come home to talk to me, one word or two
  words. I look just like a fool and really do not
  want to go there, but I miss them (A 72-year-old
  urban female elderly)

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Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS
(II)
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• Sharp contrast between have and have-not public
  support

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I do not have money to see a doctor I always
delay it. XY has government to pay for him, who
pays for me? If I have headache, backache, or
something, I delay to see a doctor if it cannot
be delayed anymore, I will buy medicine from the
shop or use cupping method at most. I am old, and
should die (a 68-year old female)

• (Common replies in interview lack of medicare
  Rural New Cooperation Medical Care, high premium,
  limited coverage)
• Street doctors are curing disease with Chinese
  traditional treatment

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Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS
(III)
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• What lonely or not lonely? My spouse passed away
  two years ago. I am living alone. I do not want
  to live with my son and daughter-in law (a
  73-year old man)
• Lonely? No! I am with my spouse. My son and
  daughter work in Chengdu they give me money I
  chat and play majoung with old pals in village
  teahouse. Im not lonely

Village teahouse
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Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS
(IV)
Note Each province is treated as a dichotomous
variables.
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• The 73-year old man live with his spouse he
  enjoys his life
• The 69-year old woman live a thrift yet happy
  life with his grandson
• The 66-year old man is cutting the hair of his
  customer. He feels useful and satisfied with
  his life

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5.4 Summery of Analytical Results

• Overall stronger effect on economic poverty than
  on social poverty
• Living arrangements, child composition money
  variables variables of elderly SE background
• For social poverty stronger effect on health
  than on loneliness
• Intriguing findings, all else equal age,
  widowhood status, rural female elderly

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6.1 Policy Implications (I)

• Particular attention to the elderly of sonless,
  childless, living alone, rural elderly
• For economic poverty
• Reform the retirement policy interval of
  retiring age same age policy for male and
  females
• Establish a multi-layer and complementary support
  system for all
• Facilitate the process of urbanizations to create
  more and better job opportunities

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6.2 Policy Implications(II)

• For social poverty
• Facilitate the Home-Based community Elderly
  Support Network
• Community services worth of their names
• For younger elderly in good health status
• Provide opportunities for elderly to interact,
  work
• Recruit and encourage elderly volunteers
• Provide high-quality home services for older
  elderly
• Enhance the economic wellbeing of the elderly

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6.3 Conclusion (I)

• Rapid aging process (partly due to the OCP)
• Tremendous demand for public support
• The government not prepared for the change
• Weakened family support
• Elderly vulnerable to poverty or more so than
  others
• Not benefit from SE achievement demographic
  dividend
• Rely on family support when the family culture
  reshaped
• Low fertility and migration do not necessarily
  improve the capacity of family support for the
  elderly

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6.3 Conclusion (II)

• Partly the responsibilities of the society to
  take care of them financially, physically and
  emotionally
• Reflecting gov. capacity to implement
  human-oriented political notion in pursuing
  economic prosperity
• A comprehensive coverage of public welfare for
  all elderly underway, but it takes time low
  standard
• Single force cannot effectively deal with the
  issue of elderly poverty cooperation between
  the government, family, private sectors,
  community, NGOs

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6.4 Conclusion (III)

• This project focuses on current elderly, but the
  findings are informative for future elderly
• OCP affected many people have only 1-2 children
  will soon become elderly
• Low fertility shrank the pool of children
  providing support in their older age
• Crucial for the government to reformulate more
  suitable and more pertinent policies or programs
  for the would-be elderly

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Future Studies

• The definition of poverty
• Comparable data of elderly wellbeing
• The size of the elderly in poverty
• Underlying mechanisms for some intriguing
  findings