CALIFORNIA RAISINS

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CALIFORNIA RAISINS 27th Annual
Agribusiness Management Conference 2008 Glen
Goto, CEO Raisin Bargaining Association
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RAISIN GRAPE BEARING ACREAGE
2008 estimate is 227,000 acres. Open field
burning prohibition in San Joaquin Valley to
begin June 1, 2010. This will factor into
decision making of vineyard pull-outs over next
two years. Current alternative to burning
residual is chipping and grinding which
substantially increases removal costs. From
2004, trend has been approximately 3 raisin
grape acreage reduction
per year.
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RAISIN GRAPE UTILIZATION
2007 raisin grape supply was 2,133,000
tons with crush of raisin-type varieties at
364,000 tons. 2008 raisin grape
estimate by California Agricultural Statistical
Service (CASS) was 3 above
2007 at 2,200,000 tons. Based on
pricing of 225 per green ton, 2008 green crush
should be significantly greater than
364,000 tons of 2007.
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NATURAL SEEDLESS RAISIN SHIPMENTS

• 2007 domestic shipments were 58 and export
  shipments were 42 of raisin movement.
• 2007 total shipments of 349,598 tons was
  largest in over ten years due to 35 increase in
• export movement. Dried grape production in
  Turkey and Greece was impacted by inclement
• weather conditions.
• It appears that Turkish production will recover
  in 2008 and may reduce California export
• volume.

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NATURAL SEEDLESS RAISINDELIVERIES AND SHIPMENTS

• 2007 deliveries of 329,288 tons did not meet
  industry shipment levels and virtually
• eliminated inventory carried in reserve for
  raisin growers by Federal Marketing Order.
• 2008 preliminary crop estimate of 300,000 tons
  will not be sufficient to meet average
• shipments since the year 2000 of nearly
  310,000 tons.

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NATURAL SEEDLESS RAISINFIELD PRICE vs.100 RETURN
100 return is a function of the announced
field price and the free tonnage, plus any
reserve payment made by the Raisin
Administrative Committee (RAC). For example, the
2007 field price of 1,210 times 85 free
tonnage 1,029. 2007 reserve funds will pay
for export programs administered by the RAC
and not be available for grower payment.
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NATURAL SEEDLESS RAISINFREE PERCENTAGE
2007 Natural Seedless Raisin trade demand
(volume released into marketplace) of 232,822
tons was divided by final crop production
estimate to determine the final free percentage
of 85 for Natural Seedless Raisins. 2008
Natural Seedless Raisin trade demand is being
reviewed by the industry. USDA has issued a
preliminary trade demand of 232,784, which will
release a preliminary free tonnage of 78.
Final adjustments to take place on or before
February 15, 2009.
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2008 SITUATION

• Industry continues to work on export program
  for 2008 shipments. Raisin Bargaining Association
  pricing is contingent on availability of program.
  Export program is operated by Raisin
  Administrative Committee with authority from
  USDA.
• Grower expenses increased dramatically during
  2008 crop year. Fuel, fertilizer, chemical,
  paper, and labor costs cut deeply into grower
  margins.
• Traditional hand harvest costs were much
  greater due to number of trays picked for
  raisins, however significantly more grapes were
  required to produce a ton of raisins. Growers are
  not witnessing much greater raisin tonnage than
  last year.
• Labor situation was free of shortages as
  workers became available from hourly urban work
  such as construction and landscape maintenance.
• Organic production continues to be a strong
  marketplace for commodities like California
  Raisins. 2008 incentives for certified organic
  raisins have ranged from 500-900 per ton.

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2009 AND BEYOND

• California agriculture in general will
  obviously be in trouble without
  substantial rain and snow during the coming
  winter season.
• Mechanical harvesting will continue to
  increase in popularity as the industry
  continues to seek economic sustainability.
• Growers will hopefully find relief in cost of
  inputs such as fertilizer, chemicals, and fuel
  with the recent drop in oil prices.
• New administration will bring an opportunity
  to pass AgJobs immigration reform package.
  E-verify and mismatch social security
  identification regulations will impact existing
  workforce. Temporary worker program, a key
  component of AgJobs, will be required in the
  future for stable agricultural needs.