Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005

1
Executive Board meeting11 August 2005
2
Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts
2005
2006
1) China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the
Philippines
Source Consensus Forecasts
3
Quarterly change in US GDPAnnualised
contribution to growth in volume. Per cent.
Seasonally adjusted
Source EcoWin\ Eurostat
4
CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area, and Japan
Percentage change on same month previous year
US
Euro area
UK
Germany
Japan
Source EcoWin / National statistics
5
Consumer prices in the Nordic countriesPercentage
change on same month previous year
Sweden (UND1X)
Denmark
Sweden (UND1X excl. energy)
Finland
Norway (CPI-ATE)
CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Source EcoWin / National statistics
6
Developments in 10-year government bond yields
China
US
London
IR
Norway
Germany
Source EcoWin / National statistics
7
Movements in stock exchange sub-indices. Total
return, indexed. 3 Jan 2005 100
Norway
World
Energy
Energy
Industrials 2)
Industrials
Financials
Financials
ICT1)
ICT1)
1) Calculated as the average of the IT and
telecom indices2) Estimated as the average of
the industrials and materials indices
Source EcoWin
8
Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro
area, the UK and Sweden

UK
Sweden
Euro area
US
Sources Reuters and Norges Bank
9
Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices Daily
figures, USD per barrel. Jan 2002 Aug 2005
8 August
24 June (IR 2/05)
Sources Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
10
Difference between oil price for delivery next
month and 6-7 years aheadUSD per barrel of light
crude. Daily figures. Jan 2004 Aug 2005
2004
2005
Sources EcoWin/ NYMEX
11
Oil production in NorwayMillion barrels per day.
Monthly figures, Jan 2000 Jun 2005
Production
Projection from the Norwegian Petroleum
Directorate
Source Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
12
CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and
domestically produced goods and services1).
Historical price inflation and projections IR
2/05 (broken line).12-month rise. Per cent
Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods (0.3)
1) Norges Bank's projections
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
13
Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and
in External Trade Statistics, and in I-44
4-quarter change. Per cent. 98 Q1 05 Q2
I-44
Imported consumer goods in the CPI2)
Imported consumer goods in External Trade
Statistics1)
1) Norges Bank's projections Clothing and
accessories, footwear, furniture, food and
beverages 2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and
cars
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
14
Number employed in millions and average working
hours as a percentage of a normal working week
(37.5 hours). Seasonally adjusted
Average working hours as a percentage of a normal
working week (right-hand scale)
Employed (left-hand scale)
Source Statistics Norway
15
House prices Percentage change on same month
previous year
Sources Associations of Norwegian real estate
agents (NEF, EFF)
16
Business tendency surveyBusiness climate
indexSeasonally differentiated diffusion index
Source Statistics Norway
17
Total debt non-fin. enterprises mainland Norway
(C3) and domestic debt distributed between
households and non-financial enterprises
(C2).12-month change. Per cent
Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland
Norway (C3)
Households (C2)
Non-financial enterprises (C2)
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
18
3-month interest rate differential and
import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) A fall in
value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily
figures
I-44 (right-hand scale)
Weighted 3-month interest rate differential
(left-hand scale)
28 June 2005
8 August 2005
Sources Norges Bank and Bloomberg
19
Projected CPI-ATE and the output gap in the
baseline scenario. Quarterly figures. Per cent.
04 Q1 08 Q4
CPI-ATE
Output gap
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank