Stella Systems Thinking Modelling

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Stella Systems Thinking Modelling
Grace Skrzypiec
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Modelling
Models provide a picture or representation of
reality
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Modelling
All Models are wrong, some models are useful
. W. Edwards Deming
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Modelling
Develop a mental model using 8 systems thinking
skills

• 10,000 metre view

• System as cause

• Dynamic thinking

• Operational thinking

• Closed-loop thinking

• Non-linear thinking

• Scientific thinking

• Empathic thinking

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Modelling
Rules

• Unit consistency

• Conservation Law

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Model Development

• What Questions to ask
• How many juveniles pass through each point in the
  system?

• Initiation Start Offending
• Persistence Continued Offending
• Desistance Stop Offending

Follow sequence from Apprehensions to Secure Care
Collate data on rates of change
What If? Scenarios
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Model of SA Juvenile Justice System
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Model Interface
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Part 1
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Part 1
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Part 1
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Part 1
Detected offending is influenced by the number of
Police available and their juvenile apprehension
rate
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Part 2
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Questions

• What are the relationships between stocks?
• What factors influence flow?
• Model gender separately?
• Model Indigenous status separately?