World Energy Outlook

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World Energy Outlook 2004 Key Trends and
Challenges

• Marco Baroni
• Energy Analyst
• Economic Analysis Division

INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN DAY Berlin, 24th February
2005
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World Energy Outlook Series

• World Energy Outlook 2000
• World Energy Outlook 2001 Insights Assessing
  Todays Supplies to Fuel Tomorrows Growth
• World Energy Outlook 2002
• World Energy Outlook 2003 Insights World
  Energy Investment Outlook
• World Energy Outlook 2004
• World Energy Outlook 2005 Insights Middle East
  and North Africa Energy Outlook Implications for
  the World

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WEO 2004 Structure
The context
Global Energy Trends
Energy Market Outlook Oil, gas, coal,
electricity, renewables
Regional Outlooks
Russia an in-depth study
Energy and Development
World Alternative Policy Scenario
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Global Energy Trends Reference Scenario
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World Primary Energy Demand
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Other renewables
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global
energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel
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Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand
Two-thirds of the increase in world demand
between 2002 and 2030 comes from developing
countries, especially in Asia
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Oil Flows Major Chokepoints The Dire Straits
The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as
trade flows through key maritime pipeline
chokepoints expand
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CO2 Emissions, 1971-2030
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing
countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
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Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented,
there will still be 1.4 billion people without
electricity
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Alternative Policy Scenario
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Alternative Policy Scenario

• Analyses impact of new environmental
  energy-security policies worldwide
• OECD Policies currently under consideration
• Non-OECD Also includes more rapid declines in
  energy intensity resulting from faster deployment
  of more-efficient technology.
• Basic macroeconomic population assumptions as
  for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change

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World Primary Energy Demand in Reference
Alternative Scenarios
Coal demand falls most, partially offset by more
use of renewables
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Percentage of Global Electricity Generation from
Fuel Cells in the OECD regions, 2030
Reference Scenario
Alternative Scenario
341 TWh
498 TWh
Electricity production from fuel cells will grow
from 2 to 4 of global production, mainly
concentrated in the OECD countries
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Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference
Alternative Scenarios
CO2 emissions are 16 less in the Alternative
Scenario in 2030, a reduction of about 6 Gt of
CO2
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EU CO2 Emissions in the Reference Alternative
Scenarios
With new policies, EU CO2 emissions stabilise by
2010 and fall after 2020
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Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for
more than half of decrease in emissions, and
renewables use for 20
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Summary Conclusions
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IEA H2/FC Activities

• IEA Secretariat Policy Analysis
• Policy studies (WEO, others)
• International cooperation
• Implementing Agreements R,DD
• H2 production storage, stationary and mobile
  fuel cells, CO2 capture storage, system
  integration
• Hydrogen Co-ordination Group Policy
• Policy advice, strategies, cooperation

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Summary Conclusions

• On current policies, world energy needs and CO2
  emissions will be almost 60 higher in 2030
  than now
• Energy resources are more than adequate to meet
  demand until 2030 well beyond
• Vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase
  as oil gas trade through key chokepoints
  expands
• But projected market trends raise serious
  concerns
• Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions
• Rising CO2 emissions
• Huge energy-investment needs
• Persistent energy poverty
• Policies under consideration of technology could
  substantially reduce energy demand and emissions
• But a truly sustainable energy system will call
  for faster technology development deployment
  (e.g. CCS, Hydrogen, Advanced Nuclear)