Manfred Tessaring

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Polarisation of skills and jobs?

• Manfred Tessaring
• Cedefop

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Polarisation of jobs?
EU employment increase ? high-skilled
non-manual occupations. BUT also in elementary
occupations andlow-skilled non-manual
occupations. ? polarisation high-skilled ?
very low-skilled (Employment in Europe, 2006)
USA weak job growth in the middle
? polarized pattern albeit weighted toward the
better jobs (Wright and Dryer, 2003)
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Three dogmata of education research and policy

• Ever increasing skill demand worldwideat the
  detriment of the low skilled
• Human resources investments yield benefits for
  societyand contribute to economic social
  performance
• Skilled people are better offlife chances
  labour market opportunities

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Dogma 3 Increasing skill demand

• Reasons skill-biased technological change
  structural sectoral change, tertiarisation new
  work organisation
• BUT for which jobs and skills does this apply?
• Do peoples skills match present and future skill
  needs?
• ? How to measure demand?

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Which jobs are in demand?(EU27)

• Skilled and higher skilled occupations 2/3 of
  jobs
• Still significant share of low and semi-skilled
  jobs (1/3)
• Sectors high skills in services (80), medium
  in industry (71), lowest in agriculture (53)

Occupational structure2006
Sectoral qualification structures 2005
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More medium VET skills needed?Some findings

• EU A significant share of the future workforce
  will need vocational skills and
  competences.(Helsinki Communiqué, 2006)
• By 2015, France will require practitioners
  including in more traditional jobs (at
  intermediate level) in which there is already a
  skills shortage. (Chardon and Estrade, 2007-
  draft)
• China It is often overlooked that we need more
  highly qualified skilled workers and experienced
  technicians. (Xu Zhihong, President of the
  Beijing University, 2007)

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Medium skill needs in sectors some examples

• Logistics new skill requirements of workers with
  VET qualifications, e.g. in business process
  control, IT logistics and management, materials
  tracking systems, leadership. (Schnalzer et al.,
  2003)
• Tourism new trends (individualisation, older
  tourists, cultural and environmental awareness,
  ICTs, etc.) require new skills and well-trained
  employees at intermediate levels.
  (Strietska-Ilina et al., 2005)
• Nanotechnologies shifting from basic research to
  production, process control, quality assurance,
  marketing and sales will increasingly be assigned
  to skilled workers with qualifications below
  university level. (Abicht et al., 2006)

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Skill supply

• Increasing educational attainment of the labour
  force outcome of past educational expansion
• Young generations are higher qualified than older
  people
• Younger women are higher qualified than younger
  men

Net change 1997-2005 by educational level
LOW - 13.5 million MEDIUM 11.0
million HIGH 13.0 million
1997
2005
EU 15
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Adult skills

• EU27 (2006)
• 80 million adults are (formally) low skilled
• 60 million adults have higher skills
• 125 million adults have medium skills
• ? out of these, ca. 64 have vocational
  qualifications ca. 80 million

Working-age population 25-64 years
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(No Transcript)
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What are elementary occupations? (ISCO 9)

• Requirements knowledge and experience to perform
  mostly simple and routine tasks, only limited
  personal initiative or judgement.
• Main tasks selling goods in streets, doorkeeping
  and property watching, cleaning, washing,
  pressing, and working as labourers in mining,
  agriculture and fishing, construction and
  manufacturing.
• Most occupations in this group require low
  skills.
• (Source ILO)

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Higher skills in elementary occupations
overqualification or higher demands?
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Working in elementary occupations (compared to
all occupations EU15, 2006)

• ? All elementary occupations 2006 17 million
  (10 of total employment) increase
  1998-2006 3.6 million
• Some patterns
• Women 52 (total 44)
• Temporary job women 38 (total 4.3)
• Part-time job women 56 (total 36)
• Age ? young men 18 (total 10) ? older
  women 30 (total 23)
• Low skilled 58 (total 28)
• Second job particularly women 6.6 (total
  3.6)
• Earnings ca. 30 below average (limited data)

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Matching supply and demand

• Asynchrony between skills supply and demand
  adjustments
• Structural or transitional mismatches?
• Quantitative or qualitative mismatches
• ? EDEX project conclusions
• ? Supply of qualified people is relatively
  independent of demand
• ? Demand for qualifications follows supply
  (Béduwé and Planas, 2003)

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Reasons for skill mismatches

• Overqualification
• Structural unemployment
• Voluntary or not?
• Temporary phenomena in the process of
  school-to-work transition
• Difficult employment for people re-entering work
• Disparities of economic and employment
  opportunities between countries brain drain
• ? more research is needed!

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Implications of skill mismatch and challenges
for policy

• Waste of human and financial resources
• Endangers transition to knowledge society
• Counteracts future upskilling needs, also in
  context of demographic decline
• Disadvantages in early work career may hardly be
  reversed ? high future costs
• Impairs peoples motivation to upskill and
  participate in lifelong learning

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• Thank you for your attention!
• manfred.tessaring_at_cedefop.europa.eu