Centralised and national submissions of transport emissions

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Centralised and national submissions of transport
emissions
Vienna, May 11, 2009

• Giorgos MelliosThomas PapageorgiouLeon
  Ntziachristos
• EEA project manager Martin Adams

Study funded by EEA in the framework of the
ETC/ACC IP2009 undertaken by LAT/AUTh
LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS
ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKI
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Outline

• Background
• Objectives
• Methodology
• Discussion
• Outlook

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Background Centralised calculations

• European policy is mostly based on centralised
  tools to calculate emissions and for projections
• The TREMOVE model is used in transport
  projections and to perform impact assessments
  (Euro 56, Euro VI, CO2cars, )
• TREMOVE estimates demand based on cost of
  transportation and uses COPERT to calculate
  emissions
• Several of the TERM indicators for environmental
  assessment are produced on the basis of models
  (such as TREMOVE)
• e.g. TERM 28 on specific emissions of air
  pollutants, TERM 33 on the average age of vehicle
  fleet

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Background Data sources and usage

• In 2008, EC (DG ENV) collected and produced
  streamlined road stock and activity data for all
  EU27 MSs (CH, HR, NO, TR) to feed COPERT and
  TREMOVE (FLEETS project)
• Base year 2005
• Historic years Mostly back to 1995 (some
  countries already starting 1970)
• EC (DG ENV) will base transport projections to
  2030 on these data
• TREMOVE for impact assessments
• EC4MACS (GAINS, PRIMES) for integrated assessment

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Background Centralised vs. national
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Objectives

• Compare centrally calculated and national
  submissions of transport emissions, with emphasis
  on road transport
• To check whether centralised calculations are
  consistent with national data
• QC to identify (and explain) cases where national
  data exhibit unusual departures from centrally
  calculated emissions

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Methodology National submissions

• For main pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, PM) emission
  data officially submitted to CLRTAP
• For CO2 emission data officially submitted to
  UNFCCC
• Data collected for EEA30 countries (except
  Iceland and Liechtenstein), years 2000 and 2005
• Aggregated and sectoral (except CO2) data
  available for most countries

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Methodology Centralised calculations

• Transport activity data from the FLEETS database
  (vehicle stock, mileage, speeds, shares, etc.)
• Data obtained from international sources
  (Eurostat, ACEA, ) and national data (experts,
  projects)
• Data collected for EEA30 countries (except
  Iceland and Liechtenstein) and for years 2000 and
  2005
• Calculations performed with COPERT 4 (v6.1) to
  estimate pollutant and CO2 emissions
• Mileage adjusted to match national fuel use
  statistics (from UNFCCC submissions)
• Bias to be introduced if UNFCCC and CLRTAP
  equivalent fuel consumptions differ

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Results Emissions comparison

• Preliminary results only shown in this
  presentation
• Total emissions (kt)
• Indicators (g/kg fuel)

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Results Total emissions (kt)
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Results Indicators (g/kg fuel)
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Results CO Indicators
Increasing National CO
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Results Classification of CO deviations
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Results ?Ox Indicators
Increasing National NOx
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Results Classification of NOx deviations
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Results More details available

• Excel spreadsheets provide more information on
  individual vehicle classes
• Italy CO Austria - CO

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Discussion

• CO2 emissions in good agreement due to mileage
  tuning
• Fair agreement for other pollutants at an
  aggregated level no bias
• Differences increase when looking in more detail
• Country level
• Sector level
• Centralised NOx emissions somewhat higher due to
  higher HDV EF in Copert 4 than Copert 3
• Exercise appears useful to and may be used to
  improve/better understand data

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Outlook

• Draft report under preparation to disseminate to
  parties for commenting (due end of May)
• Rerun calculations with 2008 national submissions
• Prepare final report, including country
  comments/corrections by October 2009

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• Thank you for your attention!
• looking forward to fruitful collaboration!