Presented to

1
Manitoba Hydro Wind Power Integration
Enhancement Study

• Presented to
• CHA Annual Forum
• October 26, 2006
• by
• Ed Wojczynski
• Power Supply

2
Outline

• Overview of Manitoba Hydros system
• Manitoba Hydro Context for Wind
• Evaluating Wind Integration/Enhancement/Price
• Results of Wind Integration Analysis
• Future Manitoba Hydro Wind Activities

3
Existing and Planned

• Wind PPA (100MW)
• More Wind (300MW by 2008/09)
• Hydro (4,900 MW)
• Gas/Coal (500 MW)
• DSM (842 MW by 2017)
• Wuskwatim (200 MW 2012)
• Supply Efficiency (216 MW by 2013)
• Winter Peak Demand 4200 MW (2006)
• Firm Surplus for export until 2020
• Interconnections (2,400 MW)
• Export 30 Energy in Average Flows
• Assessing more wind, Conawapa, Keeyask, more
  DSM, New Ontario Interconnection

________________________________
4
Manitoba Hydro Context for Wind

• Wind only for export until 2019 (not domestic
  load)
• MH enhances value by converting wind energy into
  highest valued export market product (5 X 16,
  firm, long term)
• Wind economic evaluations based on
• forecast export market prices and system
  assumptions
• consistent with evaluations of all other resource
  options
• Interconnection and surplus hydro firming/shaping
• 400 MW wind 10 of Manitoba peak domestic
  load
• 3,500 MW wind 9 of Quebec peak domestic load

5
MH Commercial Value of Wind(250/500/750/1000MW)

• Long-term firm contract value
• Wind capacity credit
• - Product enhancement costs
• - Integration costs
• - Other costs
• Price MH commercially can pay for Wind Energy

6
Wind Enhancement Cost Elements

• Opportunity cost of hydro capacity that could
  have been used for opportunity market instead of
  firming/shaping wind
• 2. Constraint costs due to generation or
  interconnection system limits (e.g. high flow
  spill situation)

7
Wind Integration Cost Elements

• Sub-optimal operations due to variability and
  uncertainty of wind generation
• 2. Lost opportunities from increased capacity
  reserve requirement for wind

8
Modelling Wind Integration
9

General Modelling Approach
Mid to Long-Term Operations
Short-Term Operations
Sets boundary conditions to VISTA starting water
levels etc
Regulation and load-following reserve requirement

Evaluation of short-term wind integration costs
SPLASH
VISTA
EPRI-Solutions
Model
Sec - Min
Hour - Day - Week
Month - Year
Time Horizon
10
Wind vs. Equivalent Energy Base cases

• EEB (baseload) case
• Uniform generation
• No added reserves
• WIND Case
• Actual hourly wind
• Higher reserves
• Inefficient Operation

Equivalent Gen. MW
Equivalent Gen. MW
MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN
Wind Gen MW
Wind Gen MW
MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN
OPERATING
OPERATING

DAY i
DAY i
WIND Case - EEB revenue Integration Cost
11
MH Wind Integration CostsLevelized Cost in /kWh
(2006 Cdn)
12
Conclusions of Integration Study

• Integration costs were influenced by geographic
  and spatial diversity
• Integration cost dependent upon flows
• Hydraulic inefficiencies account for 50 cost,
  additional reserves 50.
• Inefficient operations largely due to wind
  uncertainty.
• Better wind forecasting would be beneficial to
  weekly energy management.

13
Future Manitoba Hydro Wind Activities

• Activities this winter
• 300 MW RFP
• Prices in RFP will be major consideration
• Release of Manitoba wind monitoring data
• Release of wind farm land lease options
• Data/leases release will be coordinated with
  300MW RFP
• Community energy (includes wind)-separate from
  RFP

14
Future Manitoba Hydro Wind Activities

• Assuming economic viability
• 2013/14 200MW Wind RFP
• 2015/16 200MW Wind RFP
• 2017/18 200MW Wind RFP

15
Thank You
16
Questions?
17
Energy Shaping
Illustrative Example
System Annual Energy GWh
Annual
Wind
500 MW Wind Energy (40 CF)
37000
OFF-Peak Tie-line Limits
32000
ON-Peak Tie-line Limits
27000
IMPORTS
THERMAL
22000
HYDRO
17000
12000
LOW FLOW
HIGH FLOW
FLOW CONDITIONS
18
Wind Forecast Uncertainty can result in
Sub-Optimal Operations

• Significant negative deviations from the forecast
  could result in
• change in reservoir operation resulting in lower
  valued exports
• Significant positive deviations from the forecast
  could result in
• change in reservoir operation resulting in spill
  and/or lost export opportunities
• for low flows could over estimate import
  requirements

19
Wind Variability More Reserves

• Increased Regulation
• Additional reserves required for sudden
  unexpected changes to wind generation in addition
  to load fluctuations
• Increased Load Following
• Changes dispatch of existing generation
• Increased draw/pond operation of small reservoirs
• Increased frequency of inefficient operation

20
Wind Integration costs are dependent on Water
Conditions

• Low Flow
• Reduced imports (on-peak off-peak)
• Reduced thermal operations
• Moderate Flow
• Increased export opportunities to the limit of
  installed generation or interconnections
• High Flow
• Wind has almost no value interconnections
  saturated
• No thermal units operating in Manitoba

21
Next Steps in Wind Integration Analysis

• Consider potential costs of
• Inefficient sub-hourly operation
• More maintenance
• Enhanced controls for added AGC requirements with
  wind
• More analysis of impact of reserves

22
Operation With Wind

• Currently 100 MW being operated within MH system
• Have 3Tier wind forecast agreement
• Using wind forecasts in operations planning and
  working to expand use
• Continual improvement in wind-related operation
  with experience and methodology enhancements

23
Conclusions of Integration Study (Continued)

• Determination of reserve requirement very
  complex
• Currently no industry standard.
• Wind integration cost for MH system comparable to
  that of largest system in MAPP (XCEL)

24
Flow Chart For MH Integration Study
MH Wind Consultant
1. Raw Wind
2. Processing
3. Hourly Wind Farm Output Series
Speed Data
MH Modeling Consultant
5. Processing and Analysis
6. Hourly Total Regulation Requirement
MOST Program Simulations
4. Load Data
Integration Costs
7. Load Data for MOST Simulation
8. Next Hour Forecast Error
10. Reserve Sensitivity
9. AGC Time Domain Analysis
11. Initial Reservoir Assumptions and Discharge
Targets from SPLASH Long-term Model 12. Export
Contracts 13. Hydrology 14. Market Price Data
Manitoba Hydro
25
Future Manitoba Hydro Wind Activities

• Activities after 2006/07
• Further wind integration enhancement/value
  studies up to 1000 MW
• Short term hydraulic operation studies
• Continue transmission planning studies
• Cold weather correlation study refinement

26
Wind vs. Equivalent Energy Base cases

• EEB (baseload) case
• Uniform generation
• No added reserves
• WIND Case
• Actual hourly wind
• Higher reserves
• Inefficient Operation

MON
TUE
WED
THR
FRI
SAT
SUN

WIND Case - EEB revenue Integration Cost